Another quick article but this one isn't even my fault. This card had EIGHT cancellations or adjustments occur in the last 3 days, including a change in the main event today. The card takes place on ESPN at 07:30 PM ET on Saturday.
THAD JEAN (11-0) vs. ERNESTO RODRIGUEZ (11-1) – Vacant Welterweight Championship
Thad Jean is a great striker with strong take down defense and good power. He hasn't found many finishes recently but he has been able to showcase cardio over 5 rounds which will be important in this fight. Thad is very fun to watch, he likes to strike from range with very fast, technical strikes. Ernesto Rodriguez didn't know he was even going to be on this card until a few days ago, and that was against a lay up. Now on 2 days notice he is called up to a 5 round main event with Thad Jean for the belt – a pretty good sequence of events for him. Rodriguez can be a boring wrestler as he likes to grind against the cage and he is low volume on the feet. On the feet he can make some action happen as when he does throw he throws hard boxing combinations. Jean is the better fighter of the two with more notice, good take down defense, more cardio, and more power.
Pick: Thad Jean to win by KO/TKO in round 2, 3, or 4. Medium-high confidence.
TYSON PEDRO (10-6) vs. RAFAEL XAVIER (14-9) – Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro can grapple but we haven't seen him look to use this in years so we can assume this will be a striking fight. In that case I like Xavier. Xavier is a tall, rangy striker who fights very well from range with solid power in his straight punches. At this point I don't know how serious Pedro takes his career but to his credit he didn't get waxed by Dovlet like I thought he would. The problem with Xavier is that he only has one round of cardio so if he doesn't land the big shot in the first he could make this closer than it should be.
Pick: Rafael Xavier by KO/TKO in round 1. Medium confidence.
SULLIVAN CAULEY (8-2) vs. RASUL MAGOMEDOV (9-0) – Light Heavyweight
The Magomedov fade will come as he is hilariously one dimensional with very bad striking defense. He is a pure wrestler and doesn't have strong finishing upside against good opponents. Cauley is the most well rounded fighter he has had to fight so far in the PFL but I am not super convinced he is very good. He proved me wrong by beating Phil Davis, but still got taken down by ACJ. I think Magomedov can do the same.
Pick: Rasul Magomedov by decision. Low confidence.
ELIEZER KUBANZA (8-1) vs. CHRIS MIXAN (7-2) – Welterweight
I like Chris and think he got robbed in his last fight, but this isn't a good fight for him. Mixan does not defend leg kicks at all, and in general his striking defense can be questioned. He is a technical striker who likes to fight behind a jab but can find himself flat footed at times and too low volume. This style could work against Kubanza as Kubanza showed that he is vulnerable to shots down the middle on DWCS. However, Kubanza hits super hard and throws heavy leg kicks so I like that aspect for him. Kubanza also definitely hits harder out of the two so I like backing him with low confidence.
Pick: Elienzer Kubanza by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2. Low confidence.
MICHAEL CYR (8-2) vs. BRYCE MEREDITH (7-1) – Bantamweight
Cyr is a grappler who has taken this on short notice. Merdeith is a primary wrestler and his striking looked improved against Dayron even though he lost. Meredith should be fine on the feet and the ground.
Pick: Bryce Meredith by decision. Medium confidence.
NKOSI NDEBELE (12-3) vs. BRANDON DAVIS (14-11) – Bantamweight
Brandon Davis hasn't fought in MMA in 3 years so not sure how fresh he will be. He is generally a grappler and he has been taking some bareknuckle fights so who knows what he is up to. Ndebele is a great striker with proven take down defense. I will be surprised if he lost.
Pick: Nkosi Ndebele by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2. High confidence.
The other two fights feature fighters with nearly zero MMA experience so not sure what to do with that.
