This week we are headed to Oklahoma City for the follow up card to UFC 329. The card is loaded with prospects from top to bottom, with a few actual debuts thrown into the mix as well. That makes it a little difficult to dial in on the best spots of the slate with so much unknown floating around, but we will of course do our best.
At the top of the slate we have Dricus Du Plessis taking on Kamaru Usman in the main event, and the co-main event features Christian Leroy Duncan and UFC super veteran Jared Cannonier. Both of those fights should be fun and exciting. One theme that seems to hold strong on this card is that you have veterans in fights with prospects, so the match making here is to build stars for sure. The purpose of the article will be to see if we can pluck some of them out of the sky and place them into our lineups.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Oklahoma City.
THE MAIN EVENT
Dricus Du Plessis ($9000 | -225 | 46%) vs. Kamaru Usman ($7200 | +190 | 38%)
The main event last week left a lot of UFC fans feeling unfulfilled. Conor injured his knee immediately after the fight began, or possibly before the fight even started depending on which narrative you believe. This week we keep the bad knees theme alive with Kamaru Usman jumping in there against Dricus Du Plessis.
I was a bit surprised to see Usman projected with 38% ownership, that seems like quite a bit for an underdog priced this low compared to recent events. It sort of makes sense though I suppose, considering he is the better technical striker, and the more technical and accomplished wrestler as well. All of that being said, Dricus has a style that has caused problems for plenty of others. Du Plessis is also very well rounded with his aggression, and has a gas tank that plays out much better than he will visually represent.
For cash lineups, stacking these two seems like the best bet in my opinion. The fight is about a coin flip to end inside the distance, but the round line is leaning towards the Over 3.5 rounds being expected at -195. So the bookies are leaning towards a late finish if any. The fact that Kamaru Usman is a difficult fighter to finish lends another point in support of the stack.
Tournaments present a bit of a crossroads on the decision tree however. Dricus Du Plessis is the side that I would prefer to be on. He has the youth and size on his side, but he is probably the least skilled between the two – so take that for what it is worth. The real question is whether or not Dricus makes the optimal with a win. At $9000, against a superior wrestler, I can’t help but think that there is a world where he doesn’t. On the flip side, Kamaru Usman likely does make the optimal lineup even if he scores poorly in his win, at $7200 it doesn’t take much to make it. You can’t go wrong with either fighter if you are determined to have main event equity, but if you play multiple entry lineups and are on the DDP side – I would strongly consider going under on both of them and using the available ownership to load up on the other 9k fighters this week as many of them are capable of big scores.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jose Delgado ($8300 | +100 | 34%) vs. Austin Bashi ($7900 | -120 | 34%)
On a card with numerous prospect fights, I guess it’s cool that we get one here where both fighters have a bit of UFC experience to draw conclusions from. Unfortunately I don’t really love either of these guys, and I think the matchup is so nuanced that it may be difficult to be confident here with a path forward. The betting line agrees with the fight being a pick’em.
This path this fight takes should tell the story. If this stays standing and fought on the feet, then Jose Delgado should be the clear pick and winner. Whether or not the knockout comes is quite a bit up in the air in my opinion however. If the fight finds the ground – which it is likely to do in my opinion – then Austin Bashi should be the clear pick and winner. Hence the betting line.
For cash games you could reasonably play either fighter. The fight is lined as a pick’em to end inside the distance, but I personally think that line is off. Delgado was a finish machine prior to two fights ago, and Bashi can be a finish machine if the fight finds the mat. For those reasons, I would prefer to skip this fight on a cash entry. If I was forced to play one in cash I would roll with the Bashi side to hopefully capitalize on the grappling upside.
As stated above, I think this fight could very easily finish. Delgado could absolutely spark Bashi inside the first round, but Bashi could also get a takedown and find a first round submission. Both of those outcomes would produce such a big score that this fight is worth targeting. The coin flip nature of how the fight plays out makes me want to avoid it in small-field single-entry tournaments. As the tournaments get bigger I would move closer and closer to Bashi however. For multiple-entry contests, being on par with the field to both fighters seems like the best path forward to me.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Dione Barbosa ($9400 | -625 | 16%)
Dione Barbosa is fighting Anna Melisano, who is making her UFC debut. The lean from WWP analysts this week has been pretty heavily slanted towards Barbosa here. So here she is being featured as a spot to get different with a potentially high score as the lowest owned fighter in the 9k salary range. She does have some takedown and submission upside here I imagine, but it is sketchy enough in my opinion to be a bit reserved with making your pivot here.
$8000-$8900 Range: Alvin Hines ($8400 | -124 | 21%)
This guy is a bum in my opinion. This is his ‘thank you’ fight from the UFC. He stepped in on short notice for them previously, and now he gets a winnable fight against RJ Harris making his debut with the promotion. This fight in general is a good one to take a flier on due to the betting line of -250 to end inside the distance, but Alvin Hines being the lower owned fighter in the matchup and one of the lower owned fighters in the salary range make him an attractive spot to distance yourself from the competition. Guy is a bum though, so set your expectations accordingly.
Under $8K Range: Mitch Ramirez ($7000 | +295 | 15%)
Finally we have our 7k fighter, Mitch Ramirez. I would be completely lying to you if I said this was for any other reason that the trajectory that Chase Hooper has been following in his last couple outings. It should also be noted that I just don’t pick Chase Hooper fights well. When I think he will struggle he scores a million points, when I think he will sail to an easy 100pts, he gets knocked out. Not the best historically with Chase Hooper fights, but like all that have come before it, you have to ask yourself – does he get the takedowns? If you think yes then ignore this suggestion completely. If you think no, then this spot has some merrit as even just a win is nearly guaranteed to be optimal no matter how it comes from Ramirez.
FINAL THOUGHT
Might be Funny
Angelo and some friends of his will be at the event. When he attends events live, he encourages WWP members to come say hi and is very vocal about buying a drink for those that do approach him. If that person is you, it is your obligation to then return to your section and give as many people as possible around you the blueprint for a free drink. Feed them details and lore that only WWP subscribers would know for them to mention, let’s get those drinks flowing.
This card is a bit rough on paper, but the matchups are really good and I expect this event to be a great show. We have a great stretch coming up of UFC events though, and what better way to head into those events than with a giant win on one of the lessor cards. Good luck in your DFS contests this week and enjoy the fights!
