This fight is a lot closer than these odds indicate because according to these odds, DDP runs through Usman and while on the surface i agree with that we can't just completely write Usman off. The reality here is that DDP isn't very good. Obviously he is good and a multiple time world champion, but I mean he isn't very technical, he isn't very clean, he is a brute. He bullies people and breaks them with endless pressure and cardio but we did just see him have literally zero success against someone who brought a wrestling gameplan to him. And that isn't new. Pretty much everyone who has tried to take DDP down, has, even Darren freaking Till. Usman will absolutely come in here and look to wrestle and I honestly think he will have success doing it, but I don't know if it will be enough success. If DDP comes into this fight with the same energy, cardio and pace that he did both the Strickland fights, he should take over and grind.

I am not expecting a meaningful size difference between the two, but i do think there will be a strength difference and DDP will need that to make up for the skill gap. I am picking DDP here but not sure if I can pull the trigger that these odds, but may stick to a round line over.

Dricus Du Plessis

Driscus Du Pless is everyone's favorite sloppy fighter. Even Dricus himself laughs at how sloppy he can be. But he wins. He is an absolute brute who charges forward throwing punches at full power while mixing in takedowns. He has a seemingly endless gas tank and relentless pressure. He is coming off his title loss to Khamzat Chimaev where he was taken down 12 times, hit with 529 strikes and gave up 22 minutes of control time.

Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman is a top 5 welterweight of all time. He is an accomplished wrestler who has steadily improved his striking. We have seen power like in his KO over Masividal and he have volume like his Covington fights. He has beaten a who's who of 170lb fighters over the last 10 years but he has also aged out. He has 19 fights in the UFC with 63 takedowns and 6 title defenses. He is coming off the grappling win over Joaquin buckley where he had 4 takedowns and 13 minutes of control.