Will update again closer to the time – 27th July

BRANDON HOLMES (6-1) vs. MODESTINO RODRIGUES (7-1) – Middleweight

BRANDON HOLMES 6-1 (4 KO, 2 DEC)

Holmes is returning after fighting on the Contender Series last year. He stepped up on short notice against Cam Rowston and was knocked out in the first round. However, the loss has aged well as Rowston is now 3-0 in the UFC. He is coming off a very impressive win over the undefeated Preston LaGrange where he took him down early and then slammed him out of a submission attempt. I am surprised he wrestled so much against LaGrange as I have considered him to be a striker more than anything. The problem with him is that he is flat footed which means he can get hit easily. Borrego and Rowston were both able to hit him often.

MODESTINO RODRIGUES 7-1 (7 KO)

This guy is pretty funny as he is a pure striker with absolutely no take down defense at all. He has competed in the K-1 world grand prix in 2025 so he can kick box at an international level. This kind of shows up in his fights as he throws a lot of combinations and his kicks are very fast – but I don't know if you could call him a technical striker. His punches are pretty sloppy as he gets super aggressive whenever he lands something of note, so he just ends up wailing hooks. You also need to worry about his striking defense as I just watched him get brutally slumped by 0-2 Clayton Ferreira by an overhand and a boxing combination.

PREDICTION

I highly doubt it was intentional but this is hilarious matchmaking by the UFC. Both guys have absolutely zero striking defense and both have enough power to put the other out. On top of that Rodrigues has never attended a BJJ class in his life and Holmes has implemented grappling in his most recent fight. Very hard to predict but Rodrigues will be the much faster and athletic striker. It really will be whoever lands first wins and I think that will be Rodrigues. However this pick could change.

Pick: Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence.

ADAM LIVINGSTON (7-1) vs. HUNTER SMITH (8-1) – Lightweight

ADAM LIVINGSTON 7-1 (5 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)

Livingston is coming back as he did the UFC a favour fighting Tommy Gantt on short notice last year. He is a 6'2″ boxer but doesn't use the fact that he is so tall and long to his advantage very well. He doesn't throw a lot of straight punches, or many jabs for that matter. He mostly throws heavy combinations with a lot of hooks. Defensively he scares me as he does not have any head movement at all and he keeps his hands very low at all times. His cardio is good in my opinion, but in his last few fights he has come out very aggressive and blown his load in the first round. Especially against Pufahl where he started throwing bombs early and spent the first half of round 1 chasing a finish. His take down defense is good even though Gantt took him down twice on five attempts. No other opponent he has had has been able to get him down. He may come out super aggressive again as that seems to be his new gameplan.

HUNTER SMITH 8-1 (6 KO, 2 DEC)

Despite the tapology pick percentages and the fact I think Livingston is overrated, I was not as impressed by Smith initially. He is a lot more patient than Livingston and even though he has some super quick finishes he takes his time getting into fights. He throws a lot of jabs and hooks with lead hand and works the legs and the body with kicks. I did watch his fights on mute butt I read somewhere he had a kickboxing background which makes sense. When he throws in combination he looks good, especially when he lands with his right hand. He has a lot of power too as he was hurting Sagliani with shots that weren't even landing properly. In that fight he did get hurt a bit and showed pretty poor cardio and defense which is concerning. In his one loss he got grappled in round 1 and come out in round 2 gassed. He won the rematch against the same guy but his opponent didn't shoot. He absolutely face planted him with a massive left hook. Overall, Smith has crazy power but I worry about his cardio and defense.

PREDICTION

The theme of this card seems to be big power and no defense. I think Livingston's defense is very concerning, especially against someone with lights out power like Smith. Smith himself doesn't have great defense and has shown poor cardio throughout his career as well. Livingston starts his fights very fast and Smith likes to take his time. If Livingston fights the way I think he will, he is going to make sure the under 1.5 rounds cashes either way as he will either land big early or get countered and dropped. I am torn on this as I think Livingston sucks and would be a free fade in the UFC but after more research Smith is a lot better than I thought he was. For now I will back the power and counter striking of Smith over the size of Livingston, as Livingston doesn't use his size well he just bombs hooks.

Pick: Hunter Smith by KO/TKO in round 1. Very low confidence.