This is a special week for the UFC, and because of the differences in the event format, playing DFS this week feels weird. Off hand masturbation levels of weird. The format is captains mode, which I have only ever played on single game NFL slates, but was probably the only way DFS could proceed given the short fight card. It changes things.
To add to the confusion, it is near impossible to truly remove anyone from your pool for UFC Freedom 250. The big favorites are all capable of putting up massive scores, both of the pick ‘ems are likely to end inside the distance, and every dog is either capable of a big score or a low enough salary that makes the win enough.
So rather than do the normal format for this article, I am just going to discuss random things that are interesting to me about this format that I have never once played in my entire life on a UFC Slate. If you normally find me to be an idiot, assume I am extra stupid this week.
CAPTAIN STRATEGY
This is where everything gets crazy. As I stated above, I have only played this mode on single game NFL slates – and I haven’t played NFL slates at all in YEARS. Everything in my soul wants to guarantee a big score in my captain spot, but filling out the rest of your roster is near impossible if you are placing a favorite at the captain spot.
That strategy would only work if many underdogs win – possible but unlikely in my opinion – AND you happen to be right about exactly which underdogs. That feels impossible to me for anyone playing single-entry contests. Save that strategy for the multiple-entry contests with max entries so you have every combination possible. So what’s left?
Pick’Em Fight Captain
This will be the more common strategy this week I assume and would involve planting a flag on one of the two closer fights on the card. Those fights are;
- Alex Perieira ($11,100) vs. Cyril Gane ($11,400)
- Diego Lopes ($12,600) vs. Steve Garcia ($9,900)
Both of these fights are expected to draw about the same attention, but the books believe that the Lopes v. Garcia fight is slightly more likely to end inside the distance, and has a 1.5 round line on BetOnline instead of the 2.5 round line that Pereira v. Gane has.
I think there is a stronger possibility that Gane gives us a boring fight before Lopes and Garcia do. I am on the Gane side to win, even though I don’t really want to be. We have seen the fight I am expecting from him before against other big punchers that he beat. Hopefully I am wrong.
When it comes to Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia, I am reasonably confident that neither of these guys will avoid engaging. Durability has been incredibly strong historically with Diego Lopes, and a knockout is probably the only way Steve Garcia wins. Plant your flag wisely.
Underdog Captain
Less popular of an approach due to being much higher risk, but since you have to plant a flag at captain no matter what, you could choose to plant it on a lower owned fighter. The underdogs this week are;
- Kyle Daukaus – $9,300
- Derrick Lewis – $9,000
- Aiemann Zahabi – $8,700
- Justin Gaethje – $8,100
- Michael Chandler – $7,500
Kyle Daukus is going to be pretty underwhelming even in a win as far as I am concerned. For him to win he basically has to outbox Bo Nickal, and maybe he can do that – but he isn’t exactly a fantastic boxer himself. A win for Daukaus won’t score well in my opinion. That being said, he is projected to be one of the more owned underdogs. People chasing the idea of a submission I suppose.
Derrick Lewis is the other high ownership underdog at similar ownership to Daukaus. He is less likely to survive the fight than Daukuas, but should put up a massive score if he wins. Basically the definition of boom or bust. You are either getting 150 points or 4 points. Much riskier when it comes to outcome, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lewis’ popularity carry over to the captain spot for those that are attempting to play an underdog in that spot.
Aiemann Zahabi is projected to be considerably less owned than either of the previous two fighters. A win for Zahabi would look like either him taking Sean O’Malley to the ground. I find it very unlikely he will outstrike O’Malley. The real question here is whether or not he has the ability to get inside on O’Malley and take him down. Probably not – but I do find Zahabi to be capable of a bigger score than Daukaus, and more likely to make it deeper into the fight than Lewis.
I am going to put Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler in the same category. Both of them will score huge in a win, but the win is just so unlikely. If you captain these guys in single-entry, and they score big, you deserve both your winnings and an extra jello cup for dinner at the insane asylum you inhabit.
FIGHT STACK STRATEGY
I have seen numerous people talking about stacking fights that are not the main event this week. Like an obscene amount of people actually. It makes sense, there is likely to be a loser in the optimal lineup this week, unless multiple underdogs win. So who loses best?
On a regular card I would vomit if someone told me to stack a three round fight ever. I actually believe that there are two fights scheduled for 3 rounds that you could consider to stack in low-risk single-entry and cash contests. Those two fights are;
- Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
- Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Between these two choices the Diego and Steve Garcia fight is the more aggressive approach in my opinion. It will be high paced for as long as it lasts, but it is expected to be a much shorter fight than Sean O’Malley and Aiemann Zahabi – which is expected to go the distance. The choice is clear for O’Malley and Zahabi if you are choosing to stack a fight between those two unless you are expecting a long war with Lopes and Garcia.
FINAL THOUGHT
Freedom is Here
Regardless of what you think about the political aspect of this event, this is a massive step for the sport of mixed martial arts. There is a sporting event taking place on the White House lawn of the United States of America – and it’s a UFC event. One of the best UFC events of the modern era in fact.
This card is loaded with good fights, but the betting looks to be prop chasing and the DFS is looking more like throwing darts on a square dart board. Don’t throw a ton of money at this card, kick back and enjoy it for the spectacle that it is. We have motorcycles doing flips on the white house lawn for fucks sake, this is the best timeline. Good luck this week!
