We are back for the Slate Snapshot after missing last week. Apologies for that miss, but the time frame for when UFC Perth was happening did not align in a way that made writing this article possible last week.
This week however, we are ready to go. This week is UFC 328 taking place at The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. We have a massively stacked main card with two title fights and plenty of action on the slate before it. The main event is Khamzat and Strickland fighting for the middleweight belt, which should be fun either way it goes, and then we see Tatsuro Taira matchup with Joshua Van for the flyweight belt. Let’s see if we can find a few good DFS positions to jump on this week.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 116.
THE MAIN EVENT
Khamzat Chimaev ($9500 | -500 | 64%) vs. Sean Strickland ($6700 | +375 | 18%)
This fight is so annoying to me. I love it, but it is annoying. As the ownership reflects, most people are pretty heavily leaning towards Khamzat Chimaev here. I get it, my head says the same exact thing. It should be an easy, dominant, win from Chimaev here. We have seen Sean taken down by far less talented wrestlers before. The fight gets interesting if he can make his way back up a few times.
“But Chimaev didn’t gas against DDP!” – true enough. DDP also didn’t really make him work and basically just accepted the positions and worked more towards not being subbed or hurt too badly on bottom. Strickland is a pace pusher, and if he can channel his inner Gilbert Burns, we might see a show in the later rounds of this fight. I agree that it is an outside chance, and the ownership reflects that as well, but the chance is there.
For cash entries you basically have to play Chimaev, you don’t have a choice. At 64% ownership (probably much higher in cash) you are immediately out of the money if he wins with a big score and you don’t have him. I don’t hate stacking the fight, but I personally believe just going Khamzat in cash and then stacking the co-main would be a better strategy. I would then hedge that decision in single-entry tournaments by going contrarian and playing Sean. If you are a multiple-entry tournament player being on par with Khamzat and going over on Sean might be the best approach.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Tatsuro Taira ($8700 | -190 | 46%) vs. Joshua Van ($7500 | +165 | 36%)
A little bit of a different vibe this week with two title fights on the slate. So in this spot we are going to use the co-main event, as it is easily the highest owned fight on the slate at around 82% ownership. Khamzat is commanding the most individual ownership, but the lack of faith in Strickland allowed Taira vs. Van to become the most owned fight on the slate.
For cash games this is the fight to stack, as there is a world where Van can manage the takedowns – or even just survive them until the later rounds – and win a striking match with Taira. We have seen Taira struggle striking to a certain degree in the past when takedowns aren’t materializing. We have also seen him knock people out, so there is that. Van doesn’t have much grappling upside really, but he puts on a really high pace that is capable of scoring well should things go his way. Not a bad fight to have the insurance of both fighters for a cash entry.
When it comes to tournaments, Taira is the side for this fight in my opinion. He just has such a high ceiling with the threat of takedowns, control, and submissions. A bit contradictory to my earlier point of Van possibly surviving the takedowns, but my personal belief is that we see Taira big brother Van quite a bit in this fight. If that plays out like I imagine it will, Taira could easily be one of the top scorers on the entire slate.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Pat Sabatini ($9000 | -170 | 17%)
The 9k range is where all the heavy lifting will be done this week I think. There are numerous fighters in this range who are capable of putting up monster scores. Sabatini is one the lower owned in the range however, and with his grappling upside, I am a bit unsure why he is trailing in popularity so much this week. I assume people are worried he just initiates the grappling and is happy to have control without doing much – but I think that when a fighters entire game plan is based on being on top of his opponent, it is a solid shot to take that he can find a finish by ground and pound or sub.
$8000-$8900 Range: Marco Tulio ($8900 | -180 | 22%)
I am in camp Kopylov on this one from a personal standpoint, but this price point is fairly weak for trying to find fighters flying under the radar. Tulio is one of the lower owned fighters in the range, and coupled with Kopylov being a fighter that does get knocked out, it seems like a reasonable shot to take. Also worth noting that PickGPT has picked Tulio on all 100 networks with 76% confidence.
Under $8K Range: Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($7600 | +115 | 20%)
Waldo is exceptionally durable, and that should make this a matchup with a safe floor in my opinion. His opponent, Alexander Volkov, is a top tier heavyweight – but he isn’t exactly super dangerous. I believe that Waldo has the wrestling advantage here, and Volkov doesn’t have the best takedown defense, so for this play to pay off you would be looking for a few takedowns and some control time. We also have an outside chance for a knockout here as well for more upside.
FINAL THOUGHT
This Card is Fantastic
One of the things that has been a theme this year for the UFC is that people haven’t been over the moon about the quality of the events. I get that concern, and I even agree to a certain point. I don’t think it is as bad as people make it out to be, but I would definitely say that since UFC 300 and 303, the quality of the events have been on a bit of a slide.
When compared to other 2026 events however, the UFC 328 card holds up to an amazing degree. We have two great title fights, a main card that rounds out well with exciting matchups, and prelims featuring both established veteran fighters and upcoming prospects. This is a well rounded event, so let’s enjoy it as fans first and foremost, and good luck in your DFS contests this week!
