This week we go to Winnipeg, Canada, but we are NOT playing hockey. There are fights happening there this weekend. The main event features Canada’s Mike Malott in perhaps his biggest test to date against veteran Gilbert Burns. As we go down the card, other established Canadian’s like Jasmine Jasudavicius, and Charles Jourdain will be putting their talents on display. Throw in a few of the country's hopeful prospects and you have a card that I can only imagine Canadian’s are excited for.
Before we get into the article, I just want to make you guys aware that it will be a bit lighter than usual. The reason for that is that I spent my week defending my son against suspension at his school. We won that battle and got the suspension tossed by way of first round knockout, but it unfortunately kept me from researching any of the fighters on this card that I am not familiar with…and there are quite a few of those.
So for what it's worth, my opinion is even less valuable this week than it would be typically, and I am going to try to keep the scope of the article limited to the fighters I am actually familiar with as well.
THE MAIN EVENT
Mike Malott ($9300 | -275 | 40%) vs. Gilbert Burns ($6900 | +235 | 32%)
This is a pretty solid main event and one that I am going to enjoy watching. I am a fan of Gilbert Burns, I enjoy watching him fight. I am not as big of a fan of Mike Malott, but he is still a good watch as well, so this should shape up to be a pretty fun one – and I have to imagine it has a ton of implications on the future of Malott. One slip up to an aging vet, ok whatever, but two slip ups to an aging vet and I think it’s safe to say he isn’t the future of Canada in combat sports.
For cash games this fight could go either way in my opinion. I see multiple paths for the fight, and while a solid chunk of them are going at least into the later rounds, there is definitely a solid chance the fight could end early as well. The betting line is slightly favoring the under 2.5 currently at -120 (not a sports bettor myself, but man that feels like the over is value). For cash you could choose to use either fighter, or you could stack. I think there is merit in both approaches. If using one fighter I would use Malott myself – but I still prefer the stack here.
When it comes to single-entry tournaments of any field size, you could go in either direction here, but I would prefer Malott in the smaller field contests and potentially moving to Burns when the field gets larger. Both fighters appear like they will be popular enough that being right is all that truly matters – optimal for the winner is all but guaranteed. No surprise when it comes to multiple-entry tournaments, but play both, and play a ton of them.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9200 | -300 | 38%) vs. Karine Silva ($7000 | +250 | 23%)
It almost feels strange to have a female fight listed in this spot, but here we are with Jasmine and Karine commanding over 60% combined ownership this week. Last week the fight listed here ended up being one of the greatest heavyweight fights in the history of the UFC, and even the loser scored 90 points in three rounds. Unfortunately that didn’t bode well for my “loser probably scores nothing” take, but the fight more than made up for my disappointment leaving both fighters off my cash recommendations. This week we have a fight that has a few paths to a potential finish, but is actually favored to go the distance at -210.
Both of these fighters are going to be solid choices in your cash games, but I would focus on Jasmine and stick with Karine as more of a punt when you don’t have much salary left. Jasmine has the stronger likelihood of scoring takedowns in my opinion, which also comes with a higher chance of finding a finish from the top. Jasmine also has the higher output in the striking as well. Karine is a tough girl, and should be able to survive on the ground with solid jiu-jitsu, and could potentially even find a sub from her back – but she almost surely is going to spend some time on her back with just 21% takedown defense.
When it comes to tournaments of all sizes and types, I think Jasmine is the move here if you are limited to picking just one of them. If you are entering any single bullets into multiple-entry contests or playing in very large field contests then there could be more merit in pivoting to Karine to save some salary near the top and hoping for the hail-mary sub win.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
With so many fighters on the card that I was unable to get a handle on this week, I am just going to be listing the least owned fighters in each salary group that I think have potential to score big. These fighters are tournament pivots only, and should not be considered safe in any way.
9K Range
- Jamie Siraj – only fighter with sub 30% for projected ownership in this range, not sure he actually scores well, but his opponent is kind of low level so it definitely could happen.
8K Range
- Jamey-Lyn Horth – This fight could easily be extremely boring, so make sure to prepare yourself for the possibility of a 70 point win here, but her opponent is significantly smaller here and tends to be less violent. At only around 14% ownership you could get a massive boost if the finish comes.
- Robert Valentin – Watching this guy on TUF would have had you thinking he was actually a really good fighter. Really though it just speaks to the level of fighter on TUF during the time period of his season. Valentine does tend to be aggressive though, as does his opponent, so there is a solid chance here for a big score at a low salary and low-ish ownership for the price point.
7K Range
- There really isn't one. All of the good dogs here are pulling the ownership they should. I might have considered Boser had he not been up a weight class, but even that would have just based on the fact that he makes fights sloppy. Not a good idea when your opponent is bigger and better than you though.
FINAL THOUGHT
Show Up For Your Kids When They Need You
This section is not related to the fights this week. If you are not intimately familiar with the American education system, let me help get you there. The people that work in education are often not operating in the best interests of your child. This is especially true when you get to the administrator level.
They are generally operating in whatever way limits the potential liability of the school district, and will often overlook the most obvious issues with things their staff did to participate in the situation you are discussing, reframe facts and events in a way that is less than honest to increase the culpability of your child, and ignore a plethora of your state’s educational laws in the interest of proving themselves and their educators justified in their actions.
Show up for your kids in those moments. Request the conferences. You are probably even entitled to one BEFORE the child needs to be removed from school as long as they aren’t involved in a violent situation. You are for sure entitled to this in NY, but it can vary by state. In that conference defend your child. They likely had them in a room with several adults being grilled and questioned like a hardened criminal prior to meeting with you. Return the favor, and watch how appreciative your child is to have an ally in the situation. Unless your kid is consistently a problematic shithead, then they probably deserved it. Good luck this week in your DFS contests!
