We are heading to the 51st state of Canada for Fight Night: Burns vs Malott in what is quite a different card than what we had last week. There are no big names, but regardless there is money to be made. Overall there are a few fighters making their UFC debuts, a bunch of Canadians, and from top to bottom should be a pretty good card for DFS purposes.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Mike Malott
Gilbert is washed, Malot is the price and joy of Canada these days, so he should in theory beat the brakes off of Durinho here in our main event. Burns would need to get lucky and find a takedown or two to implement his elite BJJ advantage, but I don’t think we see Malott lose this fight 9/10 times with how they are as fighters currently.
Marcio Barbosa
Barbosa will lead the way on the feet here with his high pressure offensive striking, an Buzukja is pretty mediocre when all is said and done so I think we will see him get pieced up on the feet, try to shoot a takedown or two and fail, and ultimately get finished en route to a nice score from Barbosa in a 1st or 2nd round win.
Jasmine Jasudavicius
JJ is good and on a nice run, and I think Karine kind of sucks if she can’t get a takedown and lay on top of you. Jasmine averages almost 1.5 more significant strikes per minute, they are almost equal on takedowns per fight with JJ slightly leading there, and Silva has a whopping 21% takedown defense. Look for JJ to get Silva on her back and beat the snot out of her.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Mandel Nallo
Nallo is one of the oldest fighters we have seen come in off the contender series, but Herbert is not good defensively, Nallo will push the pace, and Herbert won’t have a big advantage in size or reach here so I am going to side with the newcomer who will throw non stop on the feet and try to find a finish in front of his home crowd. He averaged 8.6 significant strikes per minute in his DWCS win, and Herbert is barely over 3 in his UFC tenure.
Melissa Croden
This is a pretty even fight on the analytics, but Croden just seems to be a little better both on the feet and in the grappling/wrestling departments. Daria only has a 50% takedown defense, they both average over 4 significant strikes per minute, and of the two Croden has landed takedowns, so I will side with her to get a few TD’s and look for a finish via ground and pound to pay off the salary.
John Castaneda
This will be a fun high paced fight that should take place on the feet. If things don’t go according to plan on the feet, Castaneda is the one who would look to wrestle. He averages about 2 takedowns per fight and almost 4.5 significant strikes per minute, so I will take the savings here and side with the dog.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Thiago Moises
Gauge is better, but Moises has the experience and if he can land a few big shots I think he can find his path to victory and pull the upset. Both guys have mediocre takedown defense, but I think we will see Moises try and dictate where the fight takes place and grind out a 29-28 decision win.
Kyler Phillips
This will be interesting to watch and see if Jourdain can catch Phillips in a Guilly when Kyler shoots a takedown. If Phillips can avoid that, and somehow not completely gas out as the fight goes on, I like him to get a handful of takedowns with some decent control and land ground and pound. He would need to do it all 3 rounds to convincingly win in Canada, but I think the upside is there.
Mitch Raposo
His path to victory will be on the wrestling front as Nascimento has horrendous takedown defense sitting at 37%, and Raposo has shown that he will wrestle in fights if he needs to. He has a very low output on the feet as far as significant strikes go, but I think we will see him implement a grapple heavy approach and score well on DK.
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