The UFC Vegas 115 fight card is one of the least appealing to this point in the year if you are looking for established names. If you appreciate prospects however, this one will be the one to watch. We have a couple prospects making their debut, a couple that have cleared the prospect stage looking to move into the rankings, and then an absolute banger of a matchup in the main event with Renato Moicano versus Chris Duncan.
Last week’s DFS slate was all over the place with all of the finishes and high scores that we saw. Pyfer did in fact end up being the side for the main event but got beat up for a round and a half and did not make the optimal. McKinney did exactly what he was expected to do by many, and Nelson couldn’t make his way through the storm. I do believe that Yanez won the fight against Simon, but with all of the 100 point+ scores, even getting his win wouldn’t have made him optimal. Chiesa and Fortune were the other two fighters written up, and they did win, but neither performance was good enough for DFS to find the optimal lineup.
THE MAIN EVENT
Chris Duncan ($8800 | -150 | 41%) vs. Renato Moicano ($7400 | +130 | 42%)
Just to get this out of the way. I happen to be a Chris Duncan truther. I think the man is criminally underrated, and that he is a great mixed martial artist capable of winning a fight in a multitude of ways. On the other side of this one though is a fighter who will go out there and make it a slop fest if need be, Renato Moicano. Both of these guys are defensively questionable and wear damage like you wouldn’t believe. That should make this main event a pretty exciting watch.
Cash is going to be the typical stack in my opinion. I believe that whoever wins this fight is going to score really well, probably have a couple takedowns and some control time to go with the win, and should produce a score well over 10x. In a fight that is expected to be 80% owned in tournaments, I would expect near 100% in cash games, and you really can’t afford to not have the winner.
Both of these fighters are carrying near even ownership, so for single entry contests the world is your oyster. Moicano opens up the top of the slate for you, and Duncan opens up the bottom. The decision on which side to play should be made by your personal belief in the outcome of the fight – for me that would be Duncan. If you play more than one single-entry contest, this could be the time to split the fight and play different fighters in different contests to ensure you have one/some with the main event winner.
Multiple-entry is almost always the easiest decision on fighters, because you will be playing both for sure. The decisions here come with the exposure you want to have to each of them. I think this fight is sloppy, bloody, has takedowns on the winning side, and will score fantastic in either direction. The fighters are already carrying big ownership, so being on par with the field seems to be the right course of action to me – however I wouldn’t be opposed to going 90% and adding 5% into each fighter if I was playing multiple-entry. I truly don’t believe we see the main event winner miss optimal two weeks in a row, especially with these two fighters.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Ethyn Ewing ($8600 | -135 | 24%) vs. Rafael Estevam ($7600 | +115 | 33%)
This fight has perplexed nearly every MMA bettor I have seen talk about it this week. One side is a full time construction worker who made a name for himself getting a win in his short notice debut last time out, and on the other side is a fighter who almost never makes weight, always gasses, but is an amazing wrestler that is capable of ragdolling his opponents – which is great for DFS.
Estevam is one of the most popular fighters under 8k, and that makes him the clear cut play for cash in my opinion. He has wrestling upside, and is fighting a guy we really don’t know much about in the takedown defense department. In theory you would also be able to play Ewing, but I don’t expect him to be super popular in cash games, so if you do you will have to be right. Estevam should have the safety of higher ownership.
Same or similar concept in the single entry tournament world. Estevam being so popular allows you to play him with a certain level of safety. Should he lose, that loss will be absorbed by most of the field, and therefore, not hurt as badly as riding on the Ewing side of this fight. If your contest is on the larger side however, then the merit in moving to the Ewing side – or even ignoring this fight potentially – becomes much more appealing. I would still call a Ewing play outside of multiple-entry a bit risky, but if you are positive it could end up a great sneaky play if you are right.
Both of these guys have merit in multiple-entry contests. Personally I would still favor the Estevam side, as we just get a more known entity there, but Ewing could also put up a good score if he is the one getting the takedowns and dictating where the fight takes place. Neither of these fighters is exciting enough to go over on in my opinion, but with Estevam being so popular, you stand to see a bigger benefit by going over on Ewing should you desire.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Alessandro Costa ($9300 | -400 | 22%)
When ownership dropped and Costa’s opponent, Stewart Nicoll, was projected as one of the most popular dogs on the slate – and Costa one of the least popular in the 9k range – I was confused personally. I think Costa is going to run through Nicoll in this fight, and the betting odds seem to agree. We have -400 on Costa and -255 on the fighter right under him at $9200, Jose Delano. Seems like a good place to spend $100 of salary in my opinion. We would need this fight to end inside the distance to be worth it on the Costa side however, and that trims our odds to -130 for Costa to win ITD, still better than the fighter below him that is projected to carry more ownership.
$8000-$8900 Range: Lando Vannata ($8900 | -210 | 23%)
There are a few question marks around this fight, which I imagine is helping to keep ownership on the lower side. Vannata is a skilled, well-rounded fighter, in multiple areas, but isn’t exactly the most consistent fighter on the planet and is riding a bit of a losing streak. His opponent, Darrius Flowers, is more of a striker, but has had a single takedown in two of his three UFC fights – all losses. Flowers also missed weight for this one, which adds a layer of hmmmmm. This fight should be a shit show is the moral here, and at 2:1 with low ownership, the Vannata side could easily produce some DFS magic if the stars align.
Under $8K Range: Melissa Gatto ($7700 | +150 | 25%)
To be perfectly honest, this range isn’t the place to find leverage in my opinion. Most of the fighters with a solid chance at winning, or potential of scoring big in a win, are all commanding appropriate ownership already. You could roll the dice on the least owned fighters that are fighting hype trains, but that's exactly that, a roll of the dice. When you look at fighters who actually have a solid chance to win, Melissa Gatto stands out to me. She is only projected to pull around 25% ownership, which is far less than Estevam or Moicano, and even less than Stewart Nicoll. I truly believe this fight is a coin flip though, and Gatto has the hands and the grappling to make the score big if the flip goes her way.
FINAL THOUGHT
Cards Like This Build Bankrolls!
These are the kind of cards that many people go small on, or just sit out completely. The reality of these types of cards however, is that opportunity is everywhere and you can end up having a fantastic week – especially if you play tight in low risk, and loose in high risk. We have a couple overly popular dogs that would open that door for massive success if they don’t pull through. We then have a couple massive hype trains that are pulling big numbers as well, so anything can happen there. Don’t jump out of the window and enter more than you would on a typical card, but don’t shy away from cards like this either. Good luck this week in your contests!
