Israel Adesanya and Joe Pyfer are matching up at UFC Seattle. Then we get to see Maycee Barber try to continue the climb against former champion Alexa Grasso. Those are two pretty solid fights from a name value perspective, and fights that I am interested in seeing the outcome of. Down the card we have a Michael Chiesa retirement fight, some prospects showcasing their skills, and a couple established fighters trying to get their place in the UFC back on track.
Last week this article did well with the main event write up, and with the important fight suggestion. The leverage suggestions fell short however, except for the secondary suggestion to use Al-Selwady for that purpose in the 8k range, who did manage to find the optimal with a meh DFS performance. This week hopefully we can identify a couple of those spots a bit better.
THE MAIN EVENT
Israel Adesanya ($8500 | -151 | 31%) vs. Joe Pyfer ($7700 | +131 | 35%)
Feels different coming into a DFS slate without one part of the main event commanding near, or above, 50% ownership. That being said, I completely understand why. One side, Adesanya, doesn’t score that well typically, and the Pyfer side will only score well if he gets a knockout or decides to use his wrestling, which hasn’t truly happened since 2023.
When it comes to cash, play both of these guys. Neither one of them is forcing you to abandon any of the top salaries on the slate, and there is a legitimate chance that either side can win this fight. Adesanaya is climbing in age, and his career has been on a bit of a skid, but this should be a massive step down in competition for him. On the flip side, Joe Pyfer has only lost one fight in his last five, but that was against the best fighter of the group that he fought, and he was just outclassed on the feet – which is something we could easily see happen here. I personally think this goes 5 rounds, but I don’t think I believe that either of these fighters score that well in this one regardless of outcome.
While I said that I don’t think either score well, it’s important to also say that only one of them is capable of scoring well in this fight. That fighter is Joe Pyfer. For that reason, when it comes to single entry tournaments, Pyfer is the side that makes way more sense. Higher upside, projected to carry a touch more ownership, and just has more ways to win the fight.
Israel Adesanya being only $8500 basically requires you to play him in multiple-entry contests. At that salary, even though he doesn’t score well, he would likely score more than 10x in a win, and that could pretty easily make him optimal. For multiple entry contests, staying right on par with the field to both fighters seems like the best course of action. You can’t ignore either of these guys, but you probably also don’t want to load up on either of them either.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Terrance McKinney ($8700 | -180 | 39%) vs. Kyle Nelson ($7500 | +155 | 22%)
To be perfectly honest, I do not know for sure if this fight is the most owned fight on the slate, as the ownership seems to be pretty well distributed this week. What I do know however, is that this fight is going to be a rough one to ignore. We should see fireworks here, and that is always a good thing for our DFS lineups.
When it comes to your cash contests, this is a fight I would just steer clear of. The loser in this one is going to be scoring almost nothing, and that is crushing in a cash game. You need your losers to amass at least 30-40 points. McKinney has said he is planning on fighting patiently, but generally a leopard doesn’t change his spots, so it's most likely that one of these two guys are sleeping before the midway point in round two. This is evidenced by the -250 betting line on under 1.5 rounds.
The world is your oyster when it comes to single entry, however I would probably take my chances with Kyle Nelson at the lower salary. Nelson is a good fighter who has looked especially violent in many of his most recent fights – Steve Garcia fight not withstanding. McKinney can be a solid play as well, and probably produces the bigger score in a win, but comes with more risk in my opinion. McKinney is just not capable of winning outside the first couple minutes of round one as far as I am concerned, and that makes it a game of whether or not Nelson can make it through the burst of aggression that McKinney usually produces somewhere early in round one.
With McKinney being able to put up a big round one score, and Nelson being able to put up a win if he can just make it to the latter part of round 2, you really can’t afford to go under on either of these fighters in my opinion for multiple entry contests. In fact, anywhere ownership is being trimmed, I would maybe look to add it back into this one and go over on both fighters to make sure you have a big score. McKinney said he is going to fight patient, and if you believe him you could play this in a contrarian style and just fade the fight, but I can’t imagine this one isn’t fireworks.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Michael Chiesa ($9500 | -900 | 26%)
This is going to possibly be a double retirement fight, but is for sure the last time we see Chiesa in the cage. He is sitting at -900 here, has the wrestling and grappling upside, and seems to be going a bit underowned in my opinion considering his opponent has been finished in four of his last five losses. There is a possibility Chiesa could wet blanket here, and that wouldn’t score well, but beyond that Price knocking Chiesa out early is the only way this fight goes in a direction that isn’t Chiesa. My opinion only of course.
$8000-$8900 Range: Tyrell Fortune ($8300 | -132 | 27%)
The UFC heavyweight division is a strange one. New upcoming prospects getting to fight near top 10 fighters in their debuts. That being said, Tybura is aging at an advanced rate, and Fortune has the power and wrestling to make this really interesting. Of course Tybura has a bit of wrestling and grappling himself – and probably the cleaner striking, at least in my opinion. Fortune has nearly all of the upside however, and seems to be coming in underowned compared to the rest of the salary range.
Under $8K Range: Adrian Yanez ($7600 | +150 | 18%)
When ownership came out I was shocked to see how popular Yanez’s opponent, Ricky Simon, was. My opinion of Simon used to be pretty high a few years ago, but since then it has tanked right along with his chances of ever being near the top of the division. Simon is a great wrestler, and has plenty of power in his overhand right – but Yanez is going to be the better boxer with the better footwork. Couple that with great takedown defense historically, and what should be a massive speed advantage, and I think this might be the spot to load up on Yanez. For sure, even if you don’t like the Yanez call, loading up on Ricky at over 30% ownership is insanity. He hasn’t won a wrestle heavy performance with over 100 DK points in about 5 years.
FINAL THOUGHT
Big Thanks To Premium Members!
While we are always grateful to premium members for their continued faith in our product, today I am feeling especially grateful for some reason. The support that is shown, and even the level at which some hate what we do, is an indication that we have created something that moves people. That is a good feeling.
Whether you are here for the bets, the tools, the insight, or even just to show support to an entertainment product that you enjoy – I would like to extend my sincere appreciation for that. WWP has changed my life in numerous ways and it wouldn’t have been possible without you. Thank you. Good luck this week in your contests!
