Early start this week with UFC London going down at The O2 in London, England. Prelims start at 1pm est this week, and the main card follows at 4pm est. That start time may be pushed back a half hour now due to the loss of the Melissa Mullins vs. Luana Carolina fight. This main event features two undefeated fighters with Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy.
In typical London fight card form, the rest of this slate is loaded up with fighters that are from England. Our co-main event features English prospect Luke Riley matching up with Michael Aswell Jr. from the USA. Down the slate we have loads of English fighters and a few debuts. One of the fights that I am looking forward to, but not really for DFS purposes is MVP vs. Sam Patterson. Let’s take a look at some of the important DFS matchups.
THE MAIN EVENT
Movsar Evloev ($8900 | -230 | 52%) vs. Lerone Murphy ($7300 | +195 | 29%)
This entire article was chopped from top to bottom last week. Never did I expect Vallejos to finish Emmett that quickly (or really at all despite the odds for me), but it happened. The Petrino vs. Asplund fight went the distance, so that fight didn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things. Finally, all three fighters in the leverage section lost – although Bolaji Oki still ended up optimal in his almost 50 point loss.
UFC London provides a chance for redemption however, so let’s get into tackling that. This week has some spots that seem almost like no-brainers, and then also some spots like this main event where it’s a really close fight, but only on paper. Whoever goes in and imposes their style on the other fighter is going to look like they should have been a massive favorite.
If you have already grown accustomed to my affliction to stack the main for cash, this is the week you get surprised. This fight is -260 to go the distance, so a “stack this for cash because you should get five rounds of scoring from both fighters” seems appropriate for sure. I actually don’t love the stack this week. I think that whoever wins this is going to do so in dominant fashion. My expectation is that Evloev comes in and holds Murphy on the ground for five rounds. There is of course a world where Murphy can clip and hurt Evloev on the way in, or maybe even a world where Murphy can win a decision. Short of that finish coming early for Murphy however, he probably doesn’t score well here. Between getting pinned on the ground, and already being low volume, I just don’t see much upside for Murphy here in low risk contests.
Just like I said above for cash, the same applies to single entry tournaments. Evloev is going to wrestle, we can set our watches to it. That wrestling is going to score points at a high rate while also limiting the amount of points Murphy can score – short of a flash knockout of course. This is complicated by Murphy being surrounded by three fighters in either salary direction on the slate who all have bigger scoring upside.
When you get into multiple entry contests you probably want both of them. Evloev is expected to have high ownership at around 52%, and with his wrestling stands a chance to score a crazy amount of points over five rounds. Murphy less of a chance, and you may even want to be under the field on him, but still a chance to end the night with a knockout or five round decision.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Mason Jones ($8400 | -146 | 32%) vs. Alex Sola ($7800 | +126 | 28%)
There is a combined 60% ownership on this fight, possibly enhanced by the loss of the true middle priced fight – which was Melissa Mullins vs. Luana Carolina. This fight just doesn’t really move me. I searched high and low for a reason to love it, but couldn't find it. Point blank, I like Mason Jones here, but I don’t think I would use him for low-risk contests.
According to the Event Simulator, Mason Jones scores over 100 points 28% of the time in this fight. He went 10x 53% of the time in that simulation, so just over a coin flip to score 84 points. On the flip side, the Event Simulator has Sola scoring over 100 points just 3% of the time, and going 10x just 21% of the time.
You could play either one of these fighters in cash games in my opinion and be perfectly fine, but personally find that risky in such a close fight with such low high scoring potential. The floors are likely there for safety however. Single entry tournaments would be a no-go for me with this fight. There are just better, and much more clear, opportunities across the slate. If you absolutely must though, Mason Jones should be the much safer side to choose.
For multiple entry contests personally I think being under to both is the move, but probably more under to Sola since his only real possibility to score big is an early knockout. Jones at least offers the potential for some wrestling and is estimated to be able to 10x at least half the time. To be honest, I don’t understand why the ownership here is so high, but my belief is the best course of action is to just ignore this one for the most part. If you don’t ignore it however, Jones seems like the better side.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Mario Pinto ($9700 | -900 | 21%)
Mario is an exciting striker, but he can be patient. Couple that with the wrestling inclination of his opponent, Felipe Franco, and it becomes pretty clear why this fight is trailing others in the range in ownership. That being said, I love the idea of getting a leverage opportunity on a -900 fighter. It is very hard to find the optimal lineup at this price point, so make sure to have a grasp on the risk you are taking at $9700 here if you choose to go this route.
$8000-$8900 Range: Losene Keita ($8700 | -270 | 24%)
I am pretty firmly in the Nathaniel Wood camp in this one. I think Wood is one of the most criminally underrated fighters on the UFC roster, and will be fighting in front of his home fans against Keita making his official debut. This is a MONSTER first ask for Keita in the UFC. All of that being said, Keita is aggressive, powerful, and fast – all which lend to high scores in the daily fantasy world. Wood is tough, so the risk is here with Keita, but he is very underowned for what many think he might be. An alternative play in this range that would serve a similar purpose is Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, but that would be conflicting with the lock of the week for those that practice.
Under $8K Range: Sam Patterson ($7600 | +155 | 23%)
The ownership is very well spread out amongst the underdogs this week, with only a couple projected under 20%. Sam Patterson is fighting Venom Page, and if you have seen a Venom fight in the UFC you know that there is a chance this is the slowest fight of the night with MVP keeping distance and darting in and out. If this fight gets in the clinch or somehow finds the ground however, the underdog becomes what should be a -1000 favorite. Even if it stays standing, Patterson has a shot here in my opinion just due to the low pace MVP fights at. That is an opportunity, and the reason that I chose Sam as the highlighted pivot in this range.
FINAL THOUGHT
Early Bedtime This Weekend!
There is nothing I love more than a mid-day fight card on a Saturday. We get that this week, and I am excited for it. The London fans usually end up drunk and fighting each other too, so we may even get a couple bonus fights. Despite not having the greatest name value on this card, the matchups are really solid as far as I am concerned and I am looking forward to every punch. The 02 is also a great atmosphere, so that helps bring the excitement up a notch, hopefully the London fans are excited to see their fighters perform. Good luck on your DFS entries this week! Send any wins to Angelo to potentially be featured in a video or on the website.
