I remember when I used to be less than excited about a BMF event, it just didn’t do much to get me excited. In the Max Holloway BMF era however, things have been somewhat different. I am very much looking forward to UFC 326, and the BMF belt fight between Max and Charles Oliveira. This one takes place in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada as well, which adds some allure to the event.
Beyond the BMF title fight in the main event, we have a co-main with title shot implications between Caio Borralho and Renier de Ridder…plus a handful of really exciting matchups on the undercard that should produce quite a bit of excitement. Let’s take a look at some of the important DFS matchups.
THE MAIN EVENT
Max Holloway ($8800 | -200 | 55%) vs. Charles Oliveira ($7400 | +170 | 37%)
The highs and lows of writing these things always amazes me. The unpredictable nature of fist fights makes it an adventure. Two weeks ago, reverse sweep, this past week, laser focused with great calls. Hopefully we can repeat that effort this week.
UFC 326 is giving us a BMF matchup with two of the most committed fan bases in MMA. We have BMF Champion, Max Holloway, fighting former lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira. To say this fight will be anything but amazing would leave me looking at you funny. This feels like a spectacle, it feels like a main event.
I am a stack for cash when possible guy, if you have been reading this article you likely know that already. Unless we are looking at two dangerous heavyweights, or a particular slate where there are loads of other safe options, it’s always nice to end the night with a for sure winner in your pocket. So in case that was vague, stack this fight.
When it comes to single entry, this is a fight where you will just need to be comfortable on either side of it and trust your gut. If Max wins the output was probably amazing, and there is an outside chance of a knockout, but personally I think if he hurts Charles we see Du Bronx hit the mat and try to bait a grappling exchange as he has done in the past. If Charles wins we probably saw that grappling exchange play out or Max got clipped with something unexpected. Either way is an acceptable outcome, you just have to be right.
Honestly I cannot imagine a world where the winner of this fight isn’t optimal. I am sure there is a small, slim, tiny, little chance of it somewhere, but very unlikely. For that reason, loading up on both sides of this one is a great idea for your large multiple entry tournaments. At least be around on par with the field to both fighters.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Gregory Rodrigues ($8600 | -157 | 32%) vs. Brunno Ferreira ($7600 | +137 | 31%)
I don’t think anyone was surprised to see this fight sitting in this spot. The combined ownership of the fight is expected to be over 60% and it comes with a betting line of -400 for the fight to end inside the distance. Their last meeting ended in round one as well, albeit taking place a couple years back. I do expect similar this time around personally.
When it comes to cash games I would find a different fight to hang my hat on. Both of these fighters should draw enough attention to still be used in cash games by many, but the floor for the loser is so low that it makes it unwise in my opinion. The betting odds being near even also don’t lend to making a clear decision.
For tournaments we have potential fireworks here, and for that reason loading up would be a decent course of action. For single entry you are just going to have to plant your flag and hope for the best, this fight is really close and the favorite lost it last time. You will almost surely need this fight, so choose well. For those of you playing MME I could see loading up on both of these guys to the tune of 35-40% each, maybe even potentially higher, this is definitely one I wouldn’t go under on.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Rafael Tobias ($9000 | -175 | 28%)
This price range is incredibly limited this week, with only four fighters remaining after the loss of the Lee fight. From those four fighters, two are nearly unplayable due to low ownership and limited upside. That leaves us needing to get creative in this range to be different. Tobias is making his official UFC debut, and his opponent is winless in two UFC fights after winning on the Contender Series. The one thing we do know here, there should be some wrestling/grappling and that does wonders for a DFS score. Not my favorite fight to target, but if you need to get different in the 9k range, then Tobias seems like the best choice imo.
$8000-$8900 Range: Xiao Long ($8300 | -160 | 21%)
If this play falls flat we have to agree to 100% blame the artificial intelligence. The robot picked Xiao with all 100 networks in a fight where it had plenty of data on both sides. I see the vision personally. Cody Garbrandt is less than reliable at this stage of his career, and comes with a questionable chin, although he has tightened that up some recently. Xiao isn’t exactly a great striker, so that takes a bit of concern away from the chin as well – but the possibility still exists, and it comes with some grappling upside.
Under $8K Range: Rob Font ($7500 | +135 | 16%)
This is me planting a flag, and for what it's worth, I am kind of retarded. I have this theory in my head that Rob Font is going to be too much for Raul Rosas Jr. To this point in the UFC, Rosas’ best win was Vince Morales, or maybe Aoriqileng. His only loss came from Christian Rodirguez who made Rosas tired. I do believe that Rosas has fixed the cardio concerns, but I think Rob Font is going to be able to defend the takedowns better than expected due to Rosas being so one dimensional, and light him up on the feet. Obviously if we are playing a 16% owned fighter we are taking a risk, and this is something you should probably only do in big, all or nothing, type tournaments – but I believe he can get it done.
FINAL THOUGHT
The Paramount era is fantastic!
To this point I have been impressed by Paramount. There have been some quirks and concerns from fans, but they have addressed them almost immediately, and now we have graduated to our first event where fights will take place on CBS. That is good for the sport, and grows the betting community through trickle down. Hopefully things stay rolling and the experience just continues to improve. Good luck with your DFS contents this week!
