We are back to a numbered event this week for the awesome matchup for the BMF belt for UFC 326; Holloway vs Oliveira 2. They added 3 fights to get us to 13 which is fun for DFS, and the co-main is freaking awesome with two of the best middleweights in the world squaring off. Overall a very fun fight card, and I am really looking forward to the main event as both of these guys are absolutely electric fighters.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Donte Johnson
This is basically just another pick against Brundage who is the constant disappointment and guy who will yield big scores on DK to his opponents. Johnson is younger, he is 4 inches shorter but has a 2 inch reach advantage, and he will look to wrestle and find a finish with ground and pound. He will more than likely find it early here against Cody, and I think we see him have a nice big DK score for us after getting a couple takedowns and punching Brundage’s lights out.
Caio Borralho
This is a very fun matchup for the division, and I think RDR is being overly looked down upon for his last fight which looked like he was dealing with some kind of illness that sapped his cardio. He looked nothing like the other fights he had been in, but I still think Caio is going to be too much for him. He is the cleaner striker, has better takedown defense, and will pick is spots better. RDR probably is the better overall grappler, although it is close, but I think unless he can land some of those nasty knees we will see Borralho grind out a win here.
Rafael Tobias
Tobias is just the better overall fighter here against Diyar. He has higher output on the feet, averages almost 4 takedowns per fight, and is the very young up and coming prospect from Chute Boxe who is going to come in and look for a highlight finish to announce his arrival.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Luke Fernandez
This is going to be recency bias against Rodolfo, but he has looked awful lately. I think we see the newcomer look to piece Bellato up on the feet, and while I don’t think we see a repeat of the DWCS fight where he landed a bajillion strikes, I think we see him pick Rodolfo apart and find a finish and alas the crazy ride in the UFC will be done for Bellato.
Gregory Rodrigues
Power vs power here, and I am going to side with the guy who has 5 inch height, 3 inch reach advantage and has fought better competition. I think we will see one of these guys get put out, and Robocop looked much better his last fight after having cardio issues, so if the same Gregory comes to fight Saturday, he will beat the brakes off of Brunno. He averages over 5.5 significant strikes per minute, and mixes in 2 takedowns per fight. He is the better overall fighter.
Raul Rojas Jr
He is not my favorite fighter to watch considering his style, but he will score a shit ton of DK points, and is a much better wrestler than Matsumoto who took Font down 7 times in their fight. I think he is going to grind out a boring decision win and score in the low 100’s with his takedowns and control time, and maybe we see him find a finish but he will make sure he does not lose his position.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Cody Garbrandt
This should be the make it or break it fight for the tail end of Cody’s career. He is only 34 but he seemingly has a lot of miles on his body being in the UFC for so long. He will look to mix in wrestling, he changed coaches to try and reignite the fire he had before his recent decline, so I will take him over the young Chinese fighter Long who is 1-2 in the UFC.
Drew Dober
This is a fairly even fight, with both guys who are older and don’t mind getting into firefights. Johnson has been on a very solid run his last 5 fights, but whenever you get a matchup where statistically they are fairly even, and in this case Dober has slightly higher output on the feet and more offensive wrestling initiations, I am going to side with the guy who is the dog.
Charles Oliveira
I think you want this fight no matter what in your lineup, but Oliveira presents much bigger problems than a Dustin Poirier retirement fight for Max. Max had his granite chin cracked by Ilia, and Charles ironically is coming off the same result from the now champ, but Oliveira will wrestle his way to a win here and he is so damn slick finding submissions. He also has the power to KO people, so if he can not get cracked by Max, he will pay off his salary easily.
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