An international card is coming our way this week with UFC Mexico! The event takes place at elevation, which is always fun, in Mexico City at Arena CDMX. The slate is scheduled for 13 fights, most of which have incredibly wide betting spreads. That should help make for an ideal DFS experience except for the fact that the midrange salary group is non-existent.
The main event should be a spectacle in the realm of cardio with two fighters near the top of the middleweight division who do nothing but move forward. We have former champion Sean Strickland matching up with Anthony Hernandez who is on the rise over the last year or so. The rest of the main card fills out with fights that are almost surely going to end in violence, and that trend continues down the slate. Let’s take a look at some of the important DFS matchups.
THE MAIN EVENT
Brandon Moreno ($8700 | -200 | 56%) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh ($7500 | +170 | 35%)
The last event was pretty rough all around, DFS, betting, you name it. Things didn’t go well for many people. This article was basically a reverse sweep last week. Terrible performance. This week we have an entire list of massive favorites, so things should be way more straight forward this time around.
At UFC Mexico we were supposed to see Brandon Moreno matching up with Asu Almabayev, but Asu pulled out, and now we have Lone’er Kavanagh coming in on short notice to fill that spot. Both Moreno and Kavanagh are coming off of finish losses which makes this an odd choice, but it should be a fun and entertaining fight with two high paced and well rounded fighters.
Stack for cash. Nothing new here. This fight could potentially end inside the distance, but for the most part Moreno is difficult to finish, and Lone’er has youth on his side coupled with fighting maybe not the most dangerous version of Brandon Moreno. Really no reason not to stack this one, especially with a slate that is essentially forcing you to pick two to three fighters in the value ranges in every lineup.
For single entry players you will have your work cut out for you, this is a tough one to be very confident in either direction. My thinking is that Brandon Moreno would be the better side, he is going to command much ownership in your contests, and is very capable of 100 point outings. Obviously if you are very committed to Lone’er winning this fight, then use Kavanagh, but Moreno just seems like the better play to me due to the insurance of higher ownership, but the bigger the single entry contest, the less that matters.
Finally, for the massive multiple-entry tournaments you have the freedom to get as creative as the slate will allow with no midrange price points. The projections say this fight will be 91% owned and Brandon Moreno will hold around 56% of that. If there was ever a week where the main event winner isn’t optimal, it might be this week. The Event Simulator suggested being right on par with the field on Kavanagh, and being slightly under on Brandon Moreno at around 40%.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Ailin Perez ($8500 | -190 | 32%) vs. Macy Chiasson ($7600 | +165 | 29%)
We are sitting at 50% in terms of the second most owned fight on the card finding the optimal lineup. This week we have a ton of projected ownership on this otherwise lackluster fight. With no midrange to speak of, and with Perez being the lowest priced favorite on the slate, she is commanding a lot of ownership. Macy is also shaping up to be the most popular dog, which makes sense due to the wild odds we are seeing on most of these fights.
When it comes to cash games either of these girls are fine to use, but my personal lean is almost always to play the most popular dog on cash tickets. That would mean playing Macy for cash and ignoring Ailin until we get to the tournament lineup construction. Macy has everything you like in a cash entry underdog, she has a fairly safe floor, she has finishing upside with her submission game – but my sincere hope for her is that she stays away from grappling/wrestling exchanges and just keeps this at distance. If that happens the score might not be huge, but the dogs who win on this card have a good chance of being optimal even with just a decision win.
Tournaments get a bit more open with how to play it in my opinion. For smaller stuff, and especially small-field single entry contests, I would still stick with Macy and hope for the best. The bigger the single-entry tournament however, the more appealing Ailin becomes, but you are basically gambling on her being able to Nurmagomedov the much larger woman, it’s an uphill climb. Mostly dog or pass for me in any scenario.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Ryan Ganda ($9500 | -725 | 26%)
Obviously there are quite a few unknowns here with Gandra making his official debut. Thankfully he is making it against someone who has proven to be a UFC punching bag. So while there may be a world where Gandra is just the next prospect to fall, if he is what he is supposed to be, the score should be worth the salary. If you convert his DWCS performance to a DraftKings score, he would have scored 113 points, which would be fantastic here at UFC Mexico.
$8000-$8900 Range: Damian Pinas ($8800 | -240 | 24%)
Another one (DJ Khaled voice). Pinas is making his official debut, and is fighting someone else making their official debut in Wes Schultz. Pinas is going to be at a severe grappling disadvantage here, but a major striking advantage. That grappling deficiency is likely what is keeping his ownership on the lower side and pushing Schultz to be one of the more popular dogs. The concept here is simple, if you want to get different and still MAYBE pull a massive score, Pinas is one of the guys you should look at. Schultz should also be heavily represented in your multiple entry contests as well because this fight should score well in either direction.
Under $8K Range: Regina Tarin ($7600 | +135 | 20%)
The debut train keeps rolling here in the Looking for Leverage section. This time it is 21 year old, short notice, Regina Tarin. Of the underdogs that have a respectable chance to win their fight, Tarin is looking to pull one of the more reasonable ownerships. That means opportunity, especially with a fighter who has ended all but one of her fights inside the distance. Her opponent, Ernesta Kareckaite, isn’t an overwhelming finish threat, but she does fight at a high pace that could translate to fireworks here with Tarin’s go for broke style.
FINAL THOUGHT
Viva La Mexico!
This card is very one sided by the betting odds. Kind of typical for an international card where the UFC is looking to showcase a particular region, but nonetheless a tough scenario for bettors. I am near positive about the fact that football is officially over, and no other major sport is running right now in a meaningful fashion, is contributing heavily to the inflated odds as well. Tough to find spots, but I am sure you guys will find those opportunities. Good luck with your contents this week!
