We are onto Mexico for UFC Fight Night Mexico, headlined by the flyweights vying to be the next in line for a title shot. Brandon Morono vs Lone’er Kavanagh who steps in on short notice. Draftkings set pricing very tough this week with no mid tier fights, and we have a bunch of fighters who have minimal UFC experience on this card so it should be a wild one for DFS purposes.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Santiago Luna
13 years younger, 4 inch reach advantage, and is coming off a first round KO win in his UFC debut. Pacheco had a fun DWCS fight, which is why he is here on this card even though he did not get the win. Luna has a big speed and athleticism advantage over Pacheco, but I think we can see him light it up on the feet.
Ryan Gandra
Medina is not very great, and we get Gandra who will look to move forward and pressure Medina into an opening where he can find a finish. He averaged 11.2 significant strikes per minute in his contender series fight, and it just will be a matter of time before Medina gets finished, as he has shown he is a tough SOB who can absorb damage.
Francis Marshall
Similar style of fighters here, but Francis is 12 years younger, has the slight reach advantage, higher output almost doubling what Silva does on the feet, and both of them look to wrestle. I think we will see Francis beat him to the punch, both on the feet and in the offensive wrestling department, and we will see him rack up some nice DK points for us. Should be a fun fight regardless, but I am going to side with the younger, faster version of the same fighter.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
David Martinez
Very good fighter here in Martinez, he is one of the best in the division at making his opponent miss with their strikes with a defense percentage sitting at 68%. Chito has been very uninspiring over the last couple years, and I think we see the younger, faster fighter once again pick chito apart en route to a win. He more than likely won’t find a finish on the feet, maybe a submission if he gets into the right spot, but Chito should be on the losing end of this fight.
Damian Pinas
Classic big time wrestler of Schultz vs power striker in Pinas. Schultz will be looking to get this to the mat as soon as possible, so I am thinking we want one of these two guys in our lineups no matter what. Pinas has the 100+ upside of a big KO early, and Schultz has the ability to score big in a wrestle heavy approach where he has multiple takedowns, lots of control time and finds a finish when Pinas tires out. I will side with the power striker here.
Ailin Perez
This is another fight where they both are pretty similar in their approaches. Perez is the stronger wrestler, while Macy has a big height and reach advantage, I think we will see Perez spam takedowns over and over like she has in the past and find either a submission win, or grind out a decision win with a lot of control time and a half dozen takedowns. Either way she should score very well for DK purposes.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Lone’er Kavanagh
The big issue here is this is a massive step up in competition for Kavanagh, it is not short notice, but Moreno has not looked the same over the last couple fights and I think if Lone’er can step on the gas pedal and find a finish in the first two rounds he will break the slate. However, if he cannot find an early finish he may very well gas out and die…but you have to play underdogs on DK one way or another, so Lone’er is one of my favorites. Has higher output on the feet averaging 4.3 significant strikes per minute, will mix in takedowns and has a solid 88% takedown defense.
Kevin Borjas
We get Borjas as a big time dog here against someone making their debut in the UFC. He will need to avoid the big power shot of Rodriguez, but he will come in with a 4 inch reach advantage and definitely has more experience. This is a thing play, but most of the dogs look very meh this week and I would rather pick on someone making their debut, especially in Mexico in front of those crazy fans, and the moment being a little too big for him.
King Green
Zellhuber has been super disappointing so far in his UFC career. He has 2 losses as a huge favorite, and we get King Green who will stand and bang the entire fight, but you do have to worry he will be more focused on talking shit than fighting haha. He will need to completely dominate, or find a finish to get the win considering where they are fighting, but I think it at least gives you a chance to be different as he should not be high owned and will mix in wrestling if he needs to.
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