Super quick breakdown of LFA this weekend. Writing this in between finishing uni and going to work night shift so will be short and sweet. Vice TV has the rights to broadcast LFA now, and the card will be on at 09:00 PM ET on Friday.
RAFAEL DO NASCIMENTO (11-3) vs. SHUYA KAMIKUBOI (16-2-1) – Bantamweight
Kamikubo is a non-stop wrestler and grappler similar to Merab but with worse cardio. To beat him you do need very good take down defense but I don't think do Nascimento has that skill set. Nascimento has been rumoured to fight on DWCS for years now but always falls short in the fight he needs to win before the step up. He is a sick grappler but I think that will play into Kamikubo's hand if anything. Shuya's striking isn't very good but his BJJ is elite so as long as the fight is on the ground I favour him here. The fact that this is a three round fight also gives me confidence in Shuya as I don't think he can keep his pace for 5 rounds. Shuya has experience against good competition in ONE and Road to UFC. A win here for either guy gives them a good chance at DWCS or UFC straight up, but I favour Shuya as he should be able to take this fight down early and often.
Pick: Shuya Kamikubo by decision. Low confidence.
ARNOLD JIMENEZ (12-4) vs. ALLAN BEGOSSO (9-3-1) – Bantamweight
Begosso has been on DWCS before but lost to Farid Basharat. Last I heard he is a coach at Syndicate MMA but he has mostly been posting his own training footage online. He is a small bantamweight at 5'5″ but I am not sure if he would be able to step down to 125. He does have a lot of power in his small frame despite being low volume, and his grappling is good enough to threaten defensive submissions. Jiminez is a wrestler himself and although we have seen Begosso struggle against wrestlers that are bigger than him before, he isn't as good as Sweeney or Basharat. As long as Begosso can keep pressure up he will give himself openings to land his big shots. Jimenez is yet to KO an opponent so he should have the green light to throw wild and look for a KO.
Pick: Allan Begosso by KO. Medium confidence.
THEO HAIG (6-1) vs. LANCE WRIGHT (7-4) – Middleweight
Despite his embarrassing loss on DWCS, Haig is a legit prospect. It was just odd match making from the beginning since the experience difference between Cezary and him was huge. I did pick Cezary but Haig had a few backers and you could understand why. For a grappler Haig is the real deal. He was built up by Bellator early on and his momentum has continued through the LFA. Once he gets a take down he is very good at search for submissions. Wright is a lay up for him. He is a grappler himself but all 4 losses are by submission in round 1. Haig should take him down and submit him easily. I would favour Haig to beat the current LFA middleweight champion Kropschot.
Pick: Theo Haig by submission. High confidence.
