This week we are heading to Houston and the Toyota Center for an event that will almost surely not let us down. About 80% of the fights this week are expected to end inside the distance, so the chances of having an exciting Saturday evening are pretty high.
The main event should be a spectacle in the realm of cardio with two fighters near the top of the middleweight division who do nothing but move forward. We have former champion Sean Strickland matching up with Anthony Hernandez who is on the rise over the last year or so. The rest of the main card fills out with fights that are almost surely going to end in violence, and that trend continues down the slate. Let’s take a look at some of the important DFS matchups.
THE MAIN EVENT
Anthony Hernandez ($9100 | -250 | 62%) vs. Sean Strickland ($7100 | +225 | 29%)
Last event, Mario Bautista showed us there are levels and turned in an early finish performance against Vinicius Oliveira at UFC Vegas 113 and scored the most points on the slate at 118. His opponent however only scored 8 points – making the stack questionable – but peace of mind never hurts going into that last fight of the night.
For UFC Houston we have a main event that is favored to go the distance, with two fighters who aren’t really considered finishers exactly. Both Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland have a handful of finishes to their names, but it just isn’t what they are known for. Both of these guys are move forward pressure guys, Sean with his busy hands, and Fluffy with his constant wrestling threat. The output should be worthy of producing a big score in the direction of the winner regardless of a finish or not.
For cash games, you already know that the recommendation is going to be to stack these fighters. Five rounds of output, and likely to see all of them, means big scores for the winner and still a respectable number in a loss for the loser. Obviously Anthony Hernandez has a much higher ceiling due to the wrestling upside, but if Sean Strickland gets the win, that should mean that Sean was moving forward with activity himself.
When it comes time to pick a side for your single entry tournaments I would be more eager to use Fluffy and go with a stars and scrubs approach. There are enough question marks on this slate to find value in the lower salary ranges, so ignoring Sean for these contents shouldn’t be much of an issue – unless of course he wins.
For the bigger multiple-entry tournaments you really can’t afford to not be on par with the field when it comes to Hernandez. If he wins, that score could be slate breaking, and with ownership as high as he is expected to command, you can’t afford to not have him in a win. If Sean wins, while it's never ideal to not have the main event winner in your lineup, you can probably survive it as his ceiling is probably right around 100 points, which is manageable to make up in other areas of the slate. On par with ownership for both fighters seems to be the move in my opinion, but you could even go under a bit on Sean Strickland a bit if you wanted to and probably be ok.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Ante Delija ($8600 | -120 | 28%) vs. Serghei Spivac ($7600 | +100 | 26%)
Last event the fight written up here missed the optimal lineup for the first time in 2026. Almeida and Kuniev put on a stinker, and while it likely burned a ton of your DFS entries, you can take solace in the fact that it also cost Jailton Almeida his position in the UFC. It doesn’t do anything for your bankroll, but it does take a bit of the sting off knowing that his shit performance cost him something too. This week we have another fight at heavyweight in this spot, let’s hope these boys move with a bit more urgency than last week’s big guys did.
For cash games, neither of these guys aren’t pulling enough ownership in tournaments to suggest that they will be commanding enough ownership in cash to be required. So unlike the risk we had with Jailton’s ownership last event, almost forcing him to be a cash play, you can go in any direction you like this week and not be in too bad of a position should you choose wrong. Personally, I don’t think you can play Delija in cash confidently. There are too many people in that 8k range likely to score a similar amount of points in a win, but that come with much higher floors. Spivac isn’t a terrible cash play, although in a loss he likely scores nothing, so keep that in mind – but his upside is great if you are looking for help from the mid-high 7k range.
For tournaments either one of these fighters makes loads of sense. If Delija gets the win you will probably see a late first round, or early second round, knockout. If Spivac sees the fight go his way we are probably looking at a submission victory, or potentially a ground and pound finish. There is an outside chance that this becomes a slow, lean against the cage, decision fight – but I personally think if the fight plays against the cage then Spivac is likely just a cheeky takedown away from finding the win. I suggest going over on both of these fighters, to the tune of maybe 35-40% each.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Yadier del Valle ($9400 | -460 | 24%)
The 9k range for UFC Houston is pretty heavily dominated by Anthony Hernandez and Jacobe Smith who are both cheaper than Yadier del Valle this week. That being said, you have two really solid pivot spots in this range, and the one that has the highest likelihood of paying off in my opinion is Yadier del Valle. He is fighting Jordan Leavitt, who isn’t exactly a great UFC fighter, but he is dangerous if he can get his hands on you. Short of that however, Yadier comes with all of the power, and significantly more raw aggression – which gives us the potential for a big score on the favorite in a fight that is lined at -250 to end inside the distance.
$8000-$8900 Range: Geoff Neal ($8700 | -190 | 23%)
Once again, we have options in this price range. This makes two weeks in a row where the 8k range has been a buffet of potential. For the recommendation however, we are going to roll with Geoff Neal, who has the highest chance of finish from the group with at least 20% projected ownership. This fight is made for violence, and Neal’s opponent, Uros Medic seems to be the most popular dog on the slate. Not mine however. I think Neal is too powerful, and frankly too good, for Uros Medic. This fight is lined at -650 to end inside the distance, and we have an incredibly powerful fighter (Neal) matching up against an incredibly chinny fighter (Medic), personally I like that recipe.
Under $8K Range: Dan Ige ($7400 | +195 | 15%)
The odds in this fight are just downright disrespectful. Dan Ige is a reliable, and incredibly well-rounded, veteran of the UFC. He has spent the last several years fighting near the top of the weight class, and this week sees a big step down in competition with Melk Costa. I can only assume this is recency bias due to the loss against Pitbull, or maybe it is reflecting the confidence in the run Melk is putting together at 5-0 in his last five. Either way, I think this fight is very poorly lined, and if this fights ends inside the distance I think that favors an Ige win. Might be worth a shot in a salary range where the big potential dogs are already reflecting that in their ownership.
FINAL THOUGHT
Big Stretch of Uninterrupted Fights Coming Up!
I absolutely hate a Saturday night without fights. That isn’t a concern for the next nine weeks however, as we have over two straight months of fights every single weekend coming up. I live for these stretches. Hopefully we can dial in the content to help you guys enjoy this stretch to the maximum as well. Good luck in your contents this week!
