Are we ready for the new Apex experience? We better be, because it’s happening tonight for UFC Vegas 113. The Apex has a crowd now, and that should provide a more typical UFC environment to take these fights up a notch.
At the top of this card we have veteran Mario Bautista matching up with prospect Vinicius Oliveira. Not exactly the best main event, but a fight that should be fun and interesting. In fact, fun fights are loaded on this slate. The name value is probably the worst we have seen so far this year, but that is pretty normal for an Apex event. The matchups should make this card fantastic however. Let’s take a look at the snapshot!
THE MAIN EVENT
Mario Bautista ($8800 | -140 | 44%) vs. Vinicius Oliveira ($7400 | +120 | 39%)
Last week’s main event was kind of a dud. The winner, Alexander Volkanovski, missed the optimal lineup and Diego looked maybe the worst we have seen him. The stack for cash was still probably ok for you, but it definitely pushed your lineup to make up some points around it to be securely in the green.
This week we have a solidified veteran taking on an exciting young prospect with Mario Bautista and Vinicius Olivieira getting in the cage together. The veteran, Mario Bautista, is the slight favorite here and his only loss since 2021 is from Umar Nurmagomedov. Vinicius Olivieira, the prospect, has been cleaning house with quite a bit of style since entering the UFC, amassing wins against fairly well-known and very talented fighters like Said Nurmagomedov, Ricky Simon, and Kyler Phillips most recently.
I feel like a broken record here when it comes to cash. There is no reason not to go into the final fight of the night with a guaranteed win in your pocket. Stack these fighters for cash games. Both of them are very durable, and both are very capable of operating at a high pace. This contest will be a fun one to end the night with, and only having one of these fighters means that a big chunk of the field in cash could pass you if you didn’t choose correctly picking only one.
As far as tournaments go, it's basically a coin flip. Ownership is round about in the same wheelhouse, output is round about in the same wheelhouse, and public opinion seems to be round about in the same wheelhouse as well. For your low risk tournament contests, pick the fighter that you think wins, your opinion is just as good as anyone else's, especially when the math doesn’t give you a massive benefit in either direction.
Multiple-entry changes the game a bit, and for that I would strongly consider going a bit over on Vinicius Oliveira, and maybe a bit under on Mario Bautista. Not because Bautista is a bad play, but more so because there are a couple other more clearly defined big scores around the same price point as Bautista, and being a bit under on him will allow you to load up on some of the others. Conversely, the lower end of the slate doesn’t have much huge scoring potential, so Oliveira becomes the go-to in that price range.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jailton Almeida ($8500 | -155 | 34%) vs. Rizvan Kuniev ($7700 | +135 | 23%)
The fight featured in this spot is 2/2 in terms of the winner winding up on the optimal lineup for 2026, and I have to imagine the trend continues here. The next highest owned fight on the slate this week is going to be the Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev fight. This one has potential to score big for DFS with a dominant wrestler and grappler in Almeida, and someone who might be able to find a knockout if he can keep the fight standing.
I wouldn’t even attempt to play Kuniev for cash games personally. His ownership is high enough to indicate a decent amount will, but with Almeida a full 10% over him in tournament ownership he should clearly be the more popular play when it comes to cash games too. Almeida at $8500 seems like a discount in fact, this is a step down in competition for him and the lowest we have seen his salary since the Curtis Blaydes fight.
For tournaments you can play either of these fighters, they both have merit in their own way. I would suggest sticking to Almeida in anything that has less than a couple thousand entries, or just ignoring the fight completely – which does carry some risk, but with the slate we have I think you can do it if Kuniev can grab a fence or two to stay standing for a bit. Almeida is the threat for a huge score, Kuniev probably struggles to hit 100 points even in a knockout win here. The bigger the field gets however, especially those that are entering the large field single entries, the more I like Kuniev as the play. If you are playing multiple entry contests, any additional ownership you can allocate to either of these fighters is likely a good thing. I suggest being over the field on both of them.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Cong Wang ($9200 | -350 | 15%)
Just to be clear, I don’t love this range for getting different. The top plays in this range seem to be the best plays, and ownership is telling that story. If I had to pick a fighter from this range to get different with however, it would be Cong Wang. I am not a massive fan of hers, and I don’t even personally believe she wins this fight, but if she does, the score could be big. You could also be watching her gasp for air from the bottom if that takedown defense number ends up as fraudulent as I believe it is. Tread carefully. Another solid pivot in this range is Horiguchi, but I have reservations about his strength of schedule.
$8000-$8900 Range: Nikolay Veretennikov ($8900 | -270 | 20%)
The 8k range is flooded with viable options this week, but the ownership is telling that story with most in the same range. One of the fighters falling behind in ownership that I believe could have a big week is Nikolay Veretennikov. Nikolay is fighting kill or be killed fighter Niko Price, and that means that in a win this score has potential.
Under $8K Range: Priscilla Cachoeira ($7600 | +145 | 21%)
Once again we have basically an entire salary range with similar ownership. Finding your leverage in this range is going to be like throwing darts. There are only a handful of them capable of producing big scores however, and I think that is what we have here with Priscilla. A win for her looks like a knockout in round 1 or 2 in my opinion, so the juice would be worth the squeeze. If I was playing multiple entries I would probably keep a nice spread of this range and try to get different in that 8k range where the slate is the meatiest.
FINAL THOUGHT
Excited to see the new Apex!
While I don’t think this card is setting the world on fire, the matchups on it should produce some really interesting fights, and I am personally very excited to see what type of environment has been created in the Apex with the addition of 1000 seats. This should change the game for the fighters and the fans when it comes to these Apex events. Good luck out there everyone!
