Welcome to your new Saturday morning content experience DFS members! The Slate Snapshot article is a post-ownership overview of the DraftKings slate, identifying the most owned, least owned, and some of the important decisions and opportunities that present themselves on that week’s particular slate.
This week is our first week back from an incredibly long break of six weeks. Personally I didn’t love the layoff, it was just too long. Hopefully it was just because of the switch to Paramount+ and we don’t see one that length again. UFC 324 is taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada in the T-Mobile Arena and is giving us the title fight that we never asked for.
We have Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje headlining the card for the interim lightweight title. Up until about a week ago we also had Kayla Harrison taking on Amanda Nunes in her return fight, but Harrison hurt her neck, so that fight was removed from the card. Instead, Sean O’Malley versus Song Yadong moves to the co-main position. The rest of the card is pretty fun, despite not having the greatest name value, but many of the matchups are very polarizing for DFS with both sides of the fight capable of big scores. Let’s take a look at the snapshot!
THE MAIN EVENT
Paddy Pimblett ($8900 | -250 | 52%) vs. Justin Gaethje ($7300 | +210 | 39%)
This main event isn’t exactly what the people wanted for this interim belt. Plenty feel like Paddy has been gifted an opportunity here, and I think at this stage of the game people are mostly over Justin Gaethje, as he is the last of the old guard just hanging around at lightweight. The fight itself is incredibly interesting though in my opinion. This is going to be the biggest test for Paddy yet, and give us a really good look at the striking holes in his game that most of us have been waiting to see tested again since the Jared Gordon fight.
When it comes to DraftKings DFS, Paddy is looking like the preferred side commanding over 50% ownership. That number should jump significantly in cash games as well. The thought process must be an early sub for Pimblett to carry that much ownership, because short of that happening, this fight probably looks a ton like that Jared Gordon fight where Paddy spends most of his time in a striking battle with Gaethje. In that fight Paddy scored 63 points in the “win” – not exactly a number to write home about. All of his other fights have scored well however, but they were against cans, corpses, and careless fighters – sorry Chandler.
Gaethje is a fairly low scorer himself, and has not cracked 100 points since 2019. Gaethje’s main focus for this fight should be to keep it standing where he has the biggest advantage. That doesn’t exactly set the world on fire for DFS purposes however, especially since Scouzer’s don’t get knocked out. So what does this mean when it comes to building DFS lineups? Here is a suggestion based on content type.
Lot’s of touts in the industry have been screaming not to stack this fight for cash games, and if you don’t stack it, then Paddy is the only side you can really play. 52% ownership is such a high number that if that first or second round submission does come that you will almost surely need Paddy to finish in the top 40% of your contests. That being said, my suggestion would be to stack this fight for cash. I think Gaethje is way more live in this fight than people are wanting to give him credit for, and if this gets extended into the championship rounds you might be happy that you have both.
When it comes to single entry tournaments, I would choose Justin Gaethje personally. There is a real possibility that anything short of that early sub and Paddy wouldn’t make optimal on this slate even with a win. If Justin wins this fight, he will be on the optimal lineup, it's basically a guarantee at just $7300. Even if he loses, again short of the early sub, he will put up 40-50 points in the loss. It’s just a ton of value at that price, which will let you get really creative near the top.
Finally, our multiple-entry guys, you are going to have plenty of both of these fighters – as you should. My sincere suggestion would be to trim exposure to Paddy a bit though. There is a world where neither of these fighters end up optimal, although it's doubtful if the fight extends that it is going well for Paddy. For that reason I would consider a 40/40 split – maybe play with 5% exposure in either direction at your discretion.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Modestas Bukauskas ($8400 | -134 | 31%) vs. Nikita Krylov ($7800 | +114 | 33%)
This fight is the fight on the slate that could determine your results. The fight ends inside the distance line on this fight is -500. That converts to an 83% implied probability that this fight ends inside the distance for a big score. The outcomes of their previous fights suggest a similar outcome. Most people are on Bukauskas here as he seems to have the chin made of slightly thicker glass these days.
For cash game players, I would avoid this fight like the plague. This is a coin flip if I have ever seen one. I would much rather take a slightly lower score from a fight that I can predict more easily, or take a stance in a fight where the loser probably doesn’t end up with his face in the canvas.
Single entry players have the hardest choice when it comes to this fight, you can either take a stance on a particular fighter, or avoid this fight completely and hope for a slow paced second or third round finish. Avoidance becomes slightly more attractive the smaller the field is for your contest.
Multiple entry players will want exposure to each side of this one at least on par with ownership projections, although there could be plenty of merit in applying whatever trimmed ownership from other fights you can to this one and getting closer to a 50/50 split.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($9200 | -330 | 26%)
In the $9K range you have plenty of well known names to choose from, and most are going to provide some leverage due to the commanding ownership Paddy Pimblett is taking at $8900. From that group the best choice to gain some ground against the field will be Waldo Cortes-Acosta. He is fighting notorious kill or be killed Derrick Lewis. Waldo will be faster, have the grappling advantage, and to this point has not seemed to have any chin issues. On the other side, Derrick Lewis has a quit button, and if things get tough Lewis will shell up and call it a day. Of course there is a chance Lewis takes Waldo’s head off, as this chance exists in all of Derrick Lewis’ fights, but it just doesn’t seem like a very likely outcome.
$8000-$8900 Range: Charles Johnson ($8700 | -170 | 23%)
This range is pretty light, and it has the most owned fighter on the slate (Paddy Pimblett) and one of the most owned fights (Bukauskas vs. Krylov), so your choices to get different in this salary group are kinda rough. Charles Johnson seems like the logical choice though, as Sean O’Malley probably doesn’t finish Song Yadong in three rounds, and there has been some wild stuff happening with the Alexander Hernandez betting line that has me very uneasy about that fight. Charles Johnson and his opponent are both very active fighters with great cardio so this fight should push the pace, even if it doesn’t end in a finish. With this week’s slate being what it is though, you would probably be better off going with a stars and scrubs approach rather than forcing something in this range.
Under $8K Range: Arnold Allen ($7100 | +200 | 15%)
There is quite a bit to choose from in this range. I chose to highlight Arnold Allen because of his competition in this fight. Everyone is on the Jean Silva train, and I get it. The guy barks, acts like a psycho, and knocks people out. It’s fun. He didn’t look like much of a killer against Diego Lopes however, and I think this fight is on a similar level of competition for him. If Allen can win this fight he will almost surely be optimal, even in a low volume striking affair, and he comes with one of the safer floors in this price range in my opinion for the single entry players.
FINAL THOUGHT
It’s Good To Be Back!
It feels great to know we are back to weekly fights. My routine gets thrown off something serious when there are no fights, I start questioning the direction and meaning of my life, my weekends feel empty. But now I can go back to blasting the penjamin with a plate of wings in front of me while watching sweaty men beat the hell out of each other. Now that’s a solid weekend. Good luck with your DFS contests and bets this week!
