We are finally back after a long 6 week break. We kick off the new year, with the new TV deal on Paramount, with a fun fight card that lost its co-main event, but still has fun fights up and down the card. We are headlined by Paddy the baddy vs Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt, and now O’malley vs Yadong is the co-main event. Good matchups all around, some big time prospects fighting mixed in with some vets looking to make moves to get title shots, so overall it should be a very entertaining fight card.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Umar Nurmagomedov
Highest priced fighter on the card, for good reason. He has scored 104 or more DK points in all of his UFC fights except against Merab. They said he broke his hand in that fight, but either way he is a DK scoring machine averaging almost 1.5 takedowns per round. Figgy’s takedown defense is sub 60%, so look for Umar to just impose his will here and dominate the fight so he can make his case for a title shot.
Ateba Gautier
We have not really gotten to see him get really tested yet, but this should be a much tougher fight than his last one. He is as big middleweight coming in with a 3 inch reach advantage, he averages double the output on the feet as Andrey here, and has the ability to mix in some wrestling if he wants to. I think we see yet another KO win by Gautier here, but for this price tag we are going to need it in the first round, or if it goes to the second we will need a couple knockdowns and some volume. Averages 108 DK points in his 3 UFC wins, all by first round KO.
Josh Hokit
Hokit is a loudmouth showman who looked good on the contender series and then again in his UFC debut. Freeman looked god awful in his UFC debut and is a big underdog here. Hokit is the better athlete, 6 years younger, and a very good wrestler. I think we will see him implement that style here and not mess with Freeman’s standup, especially since Denzel has a 4 inch reach advantage on him and seems to be the more polished striker. Hokit by TKO is what I would expect we see here, although 139 DK points probably is not going to happen again, however 100+ is in the realm of distinct outcomes.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy is 6 years younger, 3 inch reach advantage, comes in having won 5 straight fights and is one win away from the matchup against Ilia who he hates and vice versa. Gaethje will be relying on his power shot to try and knockout Paddy, as that is the only way he will find a win here. Paddy is miles better with grappling, although his takedown accuracy is not great. He can submit him anywhere on the mat, and it was nice to see him win by TKO last time out. He averages over 96 DK points per fight, and this interim title shot would give him 2 extra rounds to work in some control time and submission attempts. Paddy ITD.
Cameron Smotherman
Cameron is a very meh fighter, but so is Ricky on the other side of this one. Turcious will just push the pace and try to out volume Cameron here, but overall I think Smotherman is better on the feet and can push Ricky around if he needs to clinch/work some control time. This is not a great range here, and I am pretty sure the Harrison/Nunez fight was supposed to be the 8200-8000 matchup so we just lost that one completely. Smotherman by decision is probably the route this one takes.
Modestas Bukauskas
Krylov’s chin looks to be absolutely toast based on his last couple fights. He has been KO’d in the first round both of his last 2 UFC fights, and since getting the call to return to the UFC Bukauskas has 3 finishes in his last 4 fights which are all wins. I think he is just the better fighter at this time, and Krylov took too much time off and now has waded back into the murky light heavyweight waters and has looked awful. Bukauskas by TKO/KO incoming.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Michael Johnson
Johnson is on a 4 fight win streak coming in to this matchup with Hernandez who also is on a 4 fight win streak. Johnson is older, but has more experience in the UFC, they are very similar in output on the feet, neither are big wrestlers, so when a fight like this is so closely matched up analytically, I am going to side with the underdog and get some DK salary relief. Johnson 29-28 across the board for an upset.
Arnold Allen
Lord Silva got a little humble pie last fight against Diego, where his head looked like a damn golfball with all the damage he took. He is a very good fighter, he is young and hungry, but now he gets a bigtime vet in Allen who is 11-2 in the UFC with his only losses being to Max Holloway and Evloev, which are pretty damn good opponents. He is not going to score a ton of DK points unless he gets a finish in the first two rounds, but I think he will try to bait Silva into making some mistakes and find the upset here.
Song Yadong
This last spot was tough, but I am going to let a little bias get in here and pick Song over Rose. O’Malley was a rockstar flying through the division until Merab took his soul at the Sphere, and then again in the rematch. He has the reach advantage on Yadong, is a legit sniper with 1 punch KO power, but Song is going to work his way inside the reach and I am willing to bet we see him implement some takedowns here and control Sean. He has mixed in a couple takedowns in previous fights, and I think this is one where he will push that gameplan and try to neutralize O’Malleys KO power.
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