The PFL recently ditched the tournament for a more traditional rankings and championship, and have been making a few major MMA prospect signings from the regional scene. PFL Dubai marks another event for the PFL without their confusing tournament system. Current lightweight champion, and arguably the face of the promotion Usman Nurmagomedov will defend against PFL 2025 Tournament winner Alfie Davis. Two undefeated Russian fighters Ramazan Kuramagomedov and Shamil Musaev will fight for the vacant welterweight title. The card takes place in Dubai on Saturday 7th February at 09:00 AM ET.

Update 21st Jan: A couple fights have been changed.

USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV (20-0) vs. ALFIE DAVIS (20-5-1) – Lightweight Championship

Usman Nurmagomedov's last two fights against Paul Hughes have proven that he is beatable. Usman is incredibly talented and is good everywhere. On the feet he has quick kicks, especially targeting the body. He can wrestle well and picks his opportunities to shoot take downs well. Hughes did prove that you can find striking success against him with pressure as he can be backed up somewhat easily, and he does have his hands pretty low. His wrestling is very effective as well but this mostly due to his great fight IQ and take down attempt timing. Against Hughes he was able to take him down pretty consistently due to good take down timing even if Hughes' take down defense was on point. He is great at taking the back against the cage, and in general has a good submission arsenal. He is so well rounded everywhere including in BJJ that you could compare him to elite UFC talents like Islam Makhachev. Alfie Davis is a fantastic striker and I will admit I wrote him off this season only for him to consistently prove me wrong. He has a very strong background in kickboxing where he was a world champion, a two time silver medalist in WAKO world kickboxing, and a multiple time national champion. He has a very kick heavy style with a wide stance similar to a lot of karate based MMA fighters. In Bellator he showed a lot of weaknesses in terms of his wrestling defense and struggling to deal with pressure. For these reasons I did pick against him many times but he has clearly worked on that, beating both Brent Primus and Gadzhi Rabadanov in 2025 to win the tournament. Watching the Rabadanov fight, I think Rabadanov's poor fight IQ cost him more than anything but Davis was out striking him in nearly every minute that the fight was standing. Rabadanov seemed to rely on his striking far too much as when he actually attempted to wrestle he got take downs against Davis without too much resistance. For this reason I think a fighter like Usman Nurmagomedov with a better game plan should be able to beat Davis. Nurmagomedov won't be able to out strike Davis like he has been able to previous opponents, but he will be able to mix in the striking with the wrestling. Since Umsan times his take down attempts as good as anyone I have seen I am expecting him to find opportunities against Davis here. I even like Usman's chances of finding a submission as in the past we have seen Davis caught in the same positions Usman looks for. Hughes was able to make Usman uncomfortable on the feet which is how the fights were so competitive but that was more to his boxing and ability to pressure when needed. Davis is super kick heavy and we don't see him rush into the pocket to throw boxing combinations as often as Hughes does. As long as Davis can throw out more volume and defend the wrestling he could certainly make this a close fight but as I stated earlier, Usman's timing on his wrestling attempts is so good I think he will struggle to keep this fight on the feet.

Pick: Usman Nurmagomedov by submission. Medium confidence.

 

RAMAZAN KURAMAGOMEDOV (13-0) vs. SHAMIL MUSAEV (20-0-1) – Vacant Welterweight Championship

Not 100% sure if this is true but Musaev may be out of this fight so I will update this section of the article later once I get some sort of update. Am picking Musaev to win by KO as his take down defense is insanely good and his striking is great. Musaev can get a bit sloppy but this is only really because he is so aggressive and throws so much volume.

Pick: Shamil Musaev by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.

POUYA RAHMANI (5-0) vs. KARL WILLIAMS (10-4) – Heavyweight

Pouya Rahmani is one of the best heavyweight prospects in the world. He is 33 years old but he has a lifetime of experience in wrestling, grappling, and even some amateur boxing. He really impressed me in his last fight against Slim Trabelsi who was 8-0. Trabelsi is a fighter I have thought highly of for a while and even picked to beat Rahmani, but he knocked him out in the first round. Rahmani is huge for heavyweight despite not being a giant at 6'2″ and he uses this size well to pressure and get take downs. On the feet he doesn't kick much but has a lot of power as showcased in his last bout. Karl Williams did have a run in the UFC where he went 3-1 but his PFL career has not turned out well as he is yet to get a win for the promotion in two fights. I don't think that will change here. Williams is a big heavyweight now even though he did fight at 205 lbs prior to his DWCS bout. He will have a 5 inch reach advantage but I don't think his striking is good enough to use that effectively as he is primarily a wrestler. This is a good test for Rahmani as he is fighting someone who will likely try and push the wrestling against him so we will see how Rahmani deals with another wrestler. Williams offensive wrestling is decent but his performances have been inconsistent. He was able to take down Justin Tafa and Lukasz Brzeski 6+ times, but he went 1 for 10 against Chase Sherman. I trust that Rahmani's wrestling is good enough given his high level background and this should be another good win for Rahmani.

Pick: Pouya Rahmani by submission. High confidence.

ABDOUL ABDOURAGIMOV (19-1) vs. KENDLY ST. LOUIS (11-5) – Welterweight

Kendly St. Louis is replacing Magomed Umalatov. Kendly has been fighting for the PFL since winning on their “Contender Series” in 2023. He has mostly turned in to a guy they call on short notice but he has managed to get some big wins for the promotion. He is a wrestler with very strong control but he doesn't do all too much with his take downs once he gets him. He fights with a technical boxing striking style, switching stances while also fighting behind a jab. I don't think he holds as much of a knock out threat as Umalatov though. The last time we saw him he got knocked out by Chris Mixan who is a really good boxer. Unfortunately that fight showed his biggest flaw on the feet which is his lack of head movement. This is a good fight for Abdouragimov as he isn't fighting a big opponent here. St. Louis isn't a big welterweight and we have only really seen Abdoul struggle with opponents who he doesn't match up with physically. It is a shame that his fight got cancelled against Umalatov as I want to see what he looks like in a step up in competition.

Pick: Abdoul Abdouragimov by submission. High confidence.

This is my breakdown for Abdouragimov vs. Magomed Umalatov which has now been cancelled:

I was really excited to see Abdoul Abdouragimov in the PFL (not really, I wanted to see him in the UFC) but he has not turned out to be as good as I thought. He looked amazing fighting for ARES FC as their welterweight champion, using his aggressive grappling to find quick submissions. He then fought to a come back win when he fought for the ARES FC middleweight title. The fighter he beat Rafal Haratyk went on to sign for KSW and is currently their light heavyweight champion. In the PFL he has gone undefeated but he hasn't looked great. He dominated a short notice Brad Wheeler, but then struggled against Jack Grant to win a close split decision. Against Grant he had to fight a huge welterweight who was not afraid of him. Grant was aggressive on the feet and in the grappling, exposing some weaknesses in Abdoul's defense and cardio. His most recent performance against Laureano Staropoli was better even though he didn't find a finish. He showed more striking and patience before diving for take downs and once he got the fight to the ground his grappling showed out again as he was able to chain multiple submission attempts together. Umalatov is a fighter who has fought for the PFL for as long as I have watched the promotion. He was undefeated up until 2024, but never fought in a tournament finals before then for some reason or another. I considered Umalatov to be a striker in the “early days” of me covering him but he has changed his style to be much more wrestling heavy. He always was a very athletic kickboxer who would get highlight finishes such as his walk off KO against Al-Silawi. I think it was around the time he fought Nayib Lopez (2023) where he really started to change his style to wrestle a lot more. This gave him multiple ways to find victory even if his fights have become less exciting to watch in my opinion. He still has good boxing and power but now he is happy to wrestle and win with control. His one loss came to Shamil Musaev, but Musaev is always going to be a tough fighter to beat as his style is just chaos and he seems to have endless cardio. In that fight Umalatov was able to take down Musaev in moments, but this took many attempts and he was never able to hold him down. Abdoul is a very talented grappler with his ability to find submissions out of nowhere but I do trust Umalatov to be able to keep this one standing. If Umalatov tries to take down Abdoul that could work as Grant was able to take him down and hold him down in round 1, but it still resulted in a submission attempt so i would rather he didn't. As long as the fight is on the feet I favour Umalatov. He has better boxing with power than Abdoul and we saw Abdoul struggle in moments with  Jack Grant's size and pressure. There is a chance we see a classic Lazy King performance out of Abdoul but he has just been so disappointing in the PFL I can't pick him here against someone as well rounded and powerful as Magomed. Pick: Magomed Umalatov by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.

JESUS PINEDO (25-7-1) vs. SALAMAT ISBULAEV (9-0) – Featherweight

Pinedo is looking to come back from his loss to Movlid Khaybulaev in the 2025 tournament finals. In that fight was taken down and controlled by Khaybulaev every round before getting finished in the 5th. Pinedo is a massive featherweight with huge power but he was unable to deal with the pressure and wrestling that night. On the surface this looks like another wrestler for Pinedo to get tested against. That is somewhat true as I have seen Isbulaev wrestle in the tape I was able to find on him but he isn't near Khaybulaev's level. He is a small featherweight at 5'7″ compared to Pinedo who is 6'0″. He makes up for this with very fast striking, high volume, combinations, and overall insane aggressiveness. Isbulaev is a fun watch I think he is taking a step up in competition too big here. He has an amateur record of 29-3, but as a professional we haven't seen him beat anyone close to Pinedo. He did beat Tuul Namnanbayar who was 6-1 with wins over good competition, but the difference here is that he is fighting a  former PFL tournament champion who just fought in the finals last year. Pinedo is one of the hardest hitters at 145, and against a much smaller opponent he shouldn't have as many problems in the wrestling. Isbulaev is a great signing for the PFL but I can't see him beating the much larger and more experienced (at a high level) Pinedo.

Pick: Jesus Pinedo by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.

AMRU MAGOMEDOV (9-0) vs. KOLTON ENGLUND (15-4) – Lightweight

Amru Magomedov is the real deal and will likely be the fighter team Abdulmanap will try pass the PFL torch down to when Usman Nurmagomedov either retires, loses the belt, or signs elsewhere. He fights in a similar manner to Usman, but his striking isn't as clean and his take down accuracy isn't as good. He throws a lot of kicks to the body and the legs, not really using boxing to set up the wrestling. He attacks with a lot of single leg take downs and in typical Dagestani wrestling style he has a great ability to find the back for a choke. Kolton Englund was on the Contender Series in 2021 and I have been expecting to see him on the show again for a couple of reasons. The first is that he lost to Manuel Torres and that loss hasn't aged badly, and the second is that he is 6-0 since that loss with three of those wins coming in 2022. Admittedly, he wasn't fighting great competition but we have seen many fighters get second chances at the UFC with a few wins like Kolton did. So I am glad it paid off for him with a PFL contract. Kolton is a big lightweight with a lot of power. 4 of his 6 KO wins come in the first round, including his most recent win over former UFC and PFL fighter Carlton Minus. We have seen Kolton wrestle offensively as well. In 2023 he beat Nick Compton with a grappling game plan, and prior to his DWCS we saw a lot more wrestling out of him too. He does have a lot of power in his hands but he isn't very fast on the feet and I am unsure how his take down defense will hold up against someone who is proving to be an elite prospect in Amru Magomedov. I think Amru wins by rear naked choke here but I am expecting fun performances from both fighters on later PFL cards.

Pick: Amru Magomedov by submission. High confidence.

AMIN AYOUB (24-6-1) vs. MAKKASHARIP ZAYNUKOV (18-4) – Lightweight

Honestly I expected to see Amin Ayoub sign with the UFC after he left ARES FC in 2024. He is a solid grappler and can throw up submission attempts from anywhere. On the feet he mostly strikes in the pocket with the exception of an occasional leg kick. He will box his way in and then throw knees or elbows. His wrestling is alright. He doesn't really shoot for his own take downs and his take down defense isn't very strong, likely because he believes in his ability to reverse position or stand up with his submission threat. Zaynukov stock is at a low at the moment as he got away with a decision that could have gone the other way in his last fight against John Mitchell. Against Mitchell he struggled to get the wrestling going and you could argue that Mitchell was out striking him effectively enough throughout the fight to win the decision. Zaynukov is a Khabib guy and will have Khabib in his corner. You will know this as Khabib's face will take up half the screen for most of this match up. He should get the take downs here as Ayoub's wrestling defense is very poor, but he doesn't set them up well at all. Unlike Usman Nurmagomedov, he just shoots take downs from anywhere which makes it predictable. I was expecting to pick Zaynukov here but after watching Ayoub a bit more I like his aggressiveness. On the feet and the ground he is always throwing strikes to score damage whereas Zaynukov can be pretty low volume. Ayoub should do more damage over the course of this fight but since his take down defense is so poor we may see Zaynukov wet blanket him.

Pick: Amin Ayoub by decision. Low confidence.

LUKE TRAINER (9-1) vs. ROB WILKINSON (19-4) – Light Heavyweight

This fight is very intriguing to me. On one side we have an upcoming 6'6″ Luke Trainer who is a highlight machine, and on the other we have Rob Wilkinson who is definitely on a bit of a downward trajectory after he won the tournament in 2022. In 2023 he failed a drug test for elevated testosterone and honestly hasn't looked the same since. He was a cardio machine who was able to wrestle forever, which was made more effective by his background in professional kick boxing. He did knock out Tom Breese but since then he has struggled in his last three fights. These last three fights have been against top PFL competition but he still isn't looking like the force he was when he dominated the [admittedly weak] 2022 PFL 205 lb roster. I am still unsure on how high in the rankings Trainer can go in the PFL and I think this fight is going to answer that question. Trainer has all the tools needed to succeed. A huge frame, good striking, and great grappling for the weight class. I had concerns about his cardio but he was able to show that he can go a hard three rounds when him and Grant Neal battled for 15 minutes. Wilkinson is by far the best fighter he has ever fought though so we are going to see him put to the test again. On the feet I do think Wilkinson is better given his credentials and proof in the victories he has secured in the PFL so far. Wilkinson has shown improved wrestling recently as well but if Trainer can get the fight down to the ground he does have a great ability to search for submissions which isn't something we see much of at this weight class. I'm not convinced Wilkinson is washed up yet even if he loss to Phil Davis was sad. He is the better striker and I hope to see him come back to form here. He will need to avoid dangerous positions early but the longer the fight lasts the more I like Wilkinson to land some solid strikes to win a decision.

Pick: Rob Wilkinson by decision. Low confidence

TAYLOR LAPILUS (23-4) vs. KASUM KASUMOV (16-2) – Bantamweight

This is the perfect fight for Lapilus to have a good performance. Kasumov is a bit smaller than him and has a huge reach disadvantage of 6 inches. Kasumov only has wrestling and doesn't have any plan B as his striking isn't very good or effective. Lapilus has proven to have elite take down defense and all the tools on the feet required to land more volume than Kasumov. The only problem with Lapilus is that he isn't very dangerous so you can never rely on him to find a finish.

Pick: Taylor Lapilus by decision. High confidence.

RENAT KHAVALOV (10-0) vs. EDGARDS SKRIVERS (17-4) – Featherweight

Bit confused by the matchmaking here. Khavalov is an elite prospect at bantamweight who just knocked out another pretty good fighter in Ndregjoni. Now he is fighting a guy who has fought once in MMA in 8 years at featherweight. Skrivers has been making a name for himself in Karate Combat over the last few years. I watched a couple of his MMA fights including his most recent one and he looks pretty small. He does throw a lot of kicks and has solid striking but he is fighting a team Khabib wrestler in Khavalov. I have thought highly of Khavalov and so far his PFL run has proven that he is an elite prospect at this weight class. In this fight Khavalov should just look to wrestle and he should pick up a nice win in the PFL.

Pick: Renat Khavalov by KO/TKO. High confidence.

DENISE KIELHOLTZ (8-5) vs. ANTONIA SILVANEIDE (9-4) – Women's Flyweight

Antonia Silvaneide is a good signing for the PFL, especially since this is short notice. Despite her record she is on a 5 fight win streak, all by KO/TKO. Looking into her record a bit deeper, three of her four losses come to fighters who ended up in the UFC, or were in the UFC. Antonia is an aggressive boxer with heavy hands. She pressured her opponents a lot and controls the center of the cage well. She can get a bit wild at times swinging from the fences while running in with her chin in the air. Sometimes she turns these moments into a take down attempt. Kielholtz is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 48-3, including 6 world titles, a Bellator Kickboxing title and multiple other kickboxing promotional titles. I always thought she looked pretty good fighting in MMA but but was just never able to beat the top ranked contenders Bellator had at the time. She hasn't fought in MMA since 2023 and was actually booked to fight against Dakota Ditcheva on this card. That would have been a great fight given that both fighters are strikers even though I would have picked Ditcheva to beat her with confidence. Since we haven't seen Kielholtz fight for a long time I am not sure what to expect but if anyone can deal with a pressure boxer it would be a former kickboxing world champion. If she beats Silvaneide I would like to see that Ditcheva fight.

Pick: Denise Kielholtz by decision. Low-medium confidence.

KHABIB NABIEV (11-0) vs. AHMED SAMI (12-4) – Light Heavyweight

Ahmed Sami is a tough wrestler but I don't think he is incredibly skilled. His tapology profile lists him as 6'0″ with a 65 inch reach which is hilarious, but it isn't quite true unfortunately. I think his reach is actually 73 inches. On the feet Nabi doesn't offer much and if you watch his fight against Belgaroui he is just getting bullied in there most of the time. Khabib Nabiev is going to be one to watch as he is another team Khabib guy making his PFL debut on this card. I will admit his fights can be quite boring as he never really struggled to get his opponents down to the ground. From there he usually works for an arm triangle choke, and that is that. I am interested to see how he goes here as he has fought at 170 lbs, 185 lbs, and 194 lbs in his career before and his now fighting at 205. Nonetheless he will probably still be bigger than Sami and as soon as the fight gets to the ground it will probably be over soon after. At least I hope so because this could be a boring decision.

Pick: Khabib Nabiev by submission. High confidence.

HAIDER KHAN (10-1) vs. JHONY GREGORY(8-5) – Middleweight

Khan is an odd fighter to me as I remember his striking early in his career being quite poor. He relied on tall mans defense a lot and I worried this was going to get him caught if he took a step up.  In the PFL he hasn't been given an elite opponent yet but this is still something I consider. He is 6'4″ and uses his height much better now. He is a massive light heavyweight with a strong kicking ability. Where I think he stands out compared to other fighters in this weight class is with his grappling. Although his top control isn't great he does have decent offensive wrestling and grappling. Jhony Gregory is likely being brought in to lose but he isn't too bad. His cardio is awful but he did find some success early against Damian Pinas who is now in the UFC. He got knocked out in the first round after gassing out trying to finish Pinas with both hands. Unfortunately he has been KOed 4 times in round 1, most recently what I would consider to be a late stoppage. His chin is done and I don't think his wrestling ability will save him as he is fighting someone who is good at grappling anyway in Haider Khan.

Pick: Haider Khan by KO/TKO. High confidence.