When this fight was announced people were furious. People were mad that somehow Paddy got a title shot without beating anyone in the top 5, people were mad that somehow Gaethje got a title shot being one fight removed from an all time flatlining, people were mad that Arman Tsarukyan who just beat the absolute brakes off of Dan Hooker was not getting a title shot. But I wasn't mad. I understood the situation. First of all we need to remember how Arman screwed not only the UFC but it's fans when he pulled out of UFC 311 hours before weigh-ins. That move cost the UFC probably 50 million dollars between wasted promotional budged and lost PPV buys. So yea, Arman is in purgatory and I get it. I also get Paddy getting a title shot, the reality is he has the longest active win streak in the lightweight division right now, plus, he's a massive fan favorite and while Gaethje is only on a one fight win streak, he is wildly exciting and a company man. So here we are, Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett for the UFC lightweight championship because Ilia Topuria has lady trouble.
If you told me a year ago that Paddy Pimblett would become a UFC champion i would call you gay, accuse you of being a British homer and send you packing. But here we are, just weeks away from a bowl cut king holding a belt. I love Justin Gaethje and he is a dying breed of savage in the UFC, but I don't think he wins here. Justin was a collegiate wrestler but he doesn't wrestle and while I wouldn't want him wrestling in this fight, i would want him defending takedowns. Paddy's takedowns aren't good, but his size, scouser chin and forward pressure may be enough to get it done. I'm going to pick Paddy here, but I hate how high his chin is n fights. Luckily for Paddy bettors, he knows this and has said in multiple interviews he's isn't dumb enough to get KO'd
Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje is the former BMF champion of the world who's fight style embodies the belt. He is a wrestler who doesn't use wrestling. He has power and volume. Pretty much every single strike he throws is a significant strike, hence the almost 7 landed per minute. Unfortunately he is hit just as much and has a negative striking differential. He marches forward, throws heavy and will stay in your face. He loves ugly fights and thrives in the chaos. He is coming off the decision win over Rafael Fiziev where he landed more strikes and had a knockdown.
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett is a well rounded guy with a good amount of experience. He can be hittable because he tends to keep his chin high, but has very solid striking offense with a ton of volume. He's a very smooth grappler who flows well on the ground. He was famous for his physical transformations between fights but has dialed that and no longer shows up t camp looking like the fat bastard from austin powers. He is coming off the absolute destruction of Michael Chandler.
