After a pretty dang good PPV we head to Qatar for a fight night headlined by Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker in what should be a title contender eliminator, unless Hooker wins and then I think we see Gaethje or Paddy get the title shot. The co-main is also has massive implications as former champ Belal Muhammad squares off against Ian Machado Garry in a bout for the #1 contender for the welterweight division. We have not had any fighter pull out yet (all eyes on Perez) and we will see who decides to miss weight inevitably on Friday.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
ABDUL RAKHMAN YAKHYAEV
Cerquiera should not be in the UFC if we are being honest, and he is about to to merc’d once again here by Yakhyaev. He is 11 years younger, faster, stronger, and will look to absolutely clobber Rafael’s face en route to a finish. I don’t see how this makes it out of the first round, so big score incoming for him to payoff the salary.
ARMAN TSARUKYAN
He is not going to stand and trade shots with Hooker, so I fully expect to see Arman wrestle heavy and often the entire fight and wear Hooker out en route to finding a finish. He could very well ride out every round with top control and not finish the fight en route to a boring decision, but either way his upside with DK scoring is phenomenal here.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
IAN MACHADO GARRY
I don’t think Belal will be able to get Garry to the ground, and while his standup has been much improved I think Garry will be able to absolutely piece him up on the feet at range and find the chin of Belal for a finish. Ian is not the most likeable guy on the roster, but the dude is a fucking stud who steps up on short notice and takes on killers anytime he is asked. He will need a ton of significant strikes or a finish to pay off, but I think we see the changing of the guard continue in this division with Garry getting a statement win and matching up with Islam next for a nice little repeat of Dagestan vs Ireland for the UFC to piggy back off.
SHAMIL GAZIEV
This will be the toughest opponent to date for Gaziev, and Spivac has only lost to guys ranked inside the top 8 of the division in the last 4 years. However, he has not looked very good of late, and I think his approach of wrestling will not work here against Shamil’s 83% takedown defense and we see a third loss in a row for the Polar Bear.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
JACK HERMANSSON
Jack is moving down a weight class after a tough KO loss last time out, and is going right into the fire with the monster that is Orolbai. He has very good takedown defense, he has good BJJ to find a submission, and he will be the bigger fighter moving down to welterweight and have a 3 inch reach advantage. If he can not be taken down and controlled, he should be able to pay off his salary.
ALONZO MENIFIELD
This should be a fairly quick fight with 2 big hitters squaring off. Neither really wrestle, both will look for the kill shots and since most of the dogs on this card don’t look great, I will take the guy with elite power who can end the fight with one punch.
CHECK OUT ADP DFS FOR MORE
If you are interested in playing DFS for other sports, you would probably also enjoy the content that I provide on my website www.adpdfs.com. We have an entire team of DFS professionals that cover most major sports and do so from a data driven perspective that has us enjoying green screens week in and week out. Hope to see you over there!
