We are heading to Abu Dhabi this week for UFC 321, and that means an early start time of 10am eastern. One fight has fallen off, but we are left with 13 fights, including two title fights. The more important of those two is Tom Aspinall versus Ciryl Gane, which should be entertaining as long as it lasts. The second of those two title fights gives us Mackenzie Dern versus Virna Jandiroba, which is probably going to be slightly less exciting.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 321 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Tom Aspinall | $9400 | -370 | 41%
This probably doesn’t come as a shock to anyone, but the main event favorite is coming with some massive ownership this week. That coupled with his ability to score an equally massive amount of points makes him one of the best plays this week. Not to gloss over the incredible grappling advantage he should have in this fight, which should provide some huge upside if the fight does in fact extend.
Valter Walker | $9100 | -380 | 36%
This fight came together rather recently, with both of them having opponents over the last couple weeks that scratched from their respective fights. One thing that leans heavily towards Walker here that you won’t find on the stat sheet is the ridiculously poor shape that Sutherland appeared to be in at the ceremonial weigh-ins. He just doesn’t have the same physique that you may have seen in some of his lower tier fights. Walker should handle him here with the wrestling, although another heel hook is probably wishful thinking.
Jailton Almeida | $8800 | -200 | 37%
Jailton Almeida should have an insurmountable grappling advantage in this matchup with Alexander Volkov. If history tells us anything, the Curtis Blaydes fight notwithstanding, Almeida is a point producer with takedowns and active top pressure that almost always leads to a submission. There is a world here however, somewhere in a far off timeline, where Volkov can use his size and the fence to stay upright, and then things could get interesting.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Jaqueline Amorim | $9500 | -400 | 21%
Slight discount from Umar, but facing someone not nearly as tough as Bautista. She will look to get takedowns and find a finish here and make a statement, and if she does it in the first round and Aspinal has a feel him out first round against Gane, she could outscore both Umar and Tom at no ownership.
Azamat Murzakonov | $8300 | -115 | 21%
He is the quiet killer in the LHW division who is moving up the rankings. He will have to deal with the huge size disparity being half a foot shorter, which means Rakic can stay on the outside with jabs and leg kicks. Azamat has the one hit power to put Rakic’s lights out though at any point, and he has a knockdown in all of his UFC fights, so if he can figure out the range he is live for a big boy DK score with a knockout.
Nasrat Haqparast | $8100 | -107 | 16%
Everyone that I have seen is all over Quillan because of his wrestling. He was panic shooting takedowns to survive his last fight, because he was gassed and getting beat on the feet. Nasrat should be able to stop some of those takedowns, get back up to his feet, and he should be the cleaner faster striker. If Quillan gasses again, he is going to get put to sleep by Haqparast.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Nathaniel Wood | $7700 | +125 | 22%
I have flipped back and forth on this fight. I think you want this fight in your lineups either way. Delgado is bigger, stronger and has the KO power that he has shown with his 2 finishes in the UFC. Wood is a freakin dog and will push the pace here and will mix in takedowns. If he is taking shots and has to shoot, he will, he just has to not get caught clean and get his lights put out.
Virna Jandiroba | $7600 | +138 | 37%
She has been on a crazy streak leading into this fight, but the dog in a 5 round title fight who loves to find takedowns and rack up control time is pretty enticing. Dern is the better overall fighter, but we have seen Mackenzie get sloppy with her striking, and her takedown offense is absolutely atrocious, so Virna will have a chance if she can mind her spots when Dern is hunting submissions.
Chris Barnett | $6900 | +350 | 10%
Of the cheap dogs, he faces the worst opponent. It was him or Bautista here, and I think he has a better chance of knocking out Hamdy than Mario does of upsetting Umar. The trick will be not getting taken down and laid on by Hamdy, but if he can keep it on the feet, he is for sure the better striker. In a battle of the tubbies, may the short and fun one win.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Hamdy Abdelwahab | $9300 | -450 | 22%
He is what is wrong with the heavyweight division. He pops for steroids and is suspended for years. Comes back and looks like shit, gasses during round one of his fights, and for someone who was an olympic wrestler, he has just decided not to do so in his last few fights. I hope he gets KO’d and dana and company go find someone who weighs over 240 pounds who wants to fight and not be miserable to watch.
Ikram Aliskerov | $9000 | -240 | 21%
This comes down to the thought process of Park is a tough fucking dude to finish, and Ikram has not been outside of the first round in his UFC fights. We know Park has the gas tank to go the full 15 minutes, and if he can survive the initial burst from Ikram, then Park could make it a very rough night for the Aliskerov crowd. The spend ups around his price point make more sense with their finishing upside in the matchups they have.
GET MORE DFS COVERAGE WITH ADP!
If you guys enjoyed my deep dive into the (event name) DFS slate you would probably also enjoy the content that I provide for other sports on my website www.adpdfs.com. We have an entire team of DFS professionals that cover most major sports and do so from a data driven perspective that has us enjoying green screens week in and week out. Hope to see you over there!
