This week the UFC is headed to Canada for UFC Vancouver. We have 13 fights as of now and we are headlined by the surging RDR looking to cement his place as the title contender for Khamzat next year. Obviously there are a ton of Canadians on the card, and we have quite a few very fun fights for DFS. The co-main should be a banger with Holland and Malott facing off, so let’s hope we keep all the fights here.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vancouver slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Azamat Bekoev | $9100 | -290 | 34%
Azamat will have to get inside the 7 inch read disadvantage he has here, but he has good wrestling, high output on the feet, and gets a guy making his UFC debut. This one will come down to closing the distance and being sharp in the pocket when he is there. Belgaroui is a kickboxer who is huge for the division, but Bekoev should look to wrestle here and keep the fight off the feet where he can excel.
Reinier de Ridder | $8800 | -190 | 54%
RDR is probably the goofiest MFer on the roster, but he just keeps winning. Surviving the big shot from Whittaker en route to winning that fight was super impressive, and he needed that because the other wins were all kind of meh. Allen steps in on short notice, had to change training camps, and will have to deal with the grappling of RDR for 5 rounds potentially. Allen will probably be the more technical striker, as RDR is wild and goofy with his striking, but RDR will be the bigger, stronger fighter and will look to get him down and tire him out. I think we see RDR finish him after the first couple rounds after Allen gasses.
Matt Frevola | $8300 | -115 | 30%
Frevola comes in as a slight favorite, and I think we see him just outpace Nelson here. He will look to wrestle and start hunting for submissions also, where he averages almost a takedown per round on top of his 3.4 significant strikes per minute. He has 6 straight fights that have ended in a KO, so we like the upside in this salary range for someone who has a kill or be killed mindset.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
HyunSung Park | $9000 | -255 | 31%
Park is bigger, 6 years younger, above average offensive wrestling and Bruno has not looked great in his last 2 fights, albeit against 2 of the best in the division. Park ran into the monster that is Taira his last time out, but was on a nice 3 fight win streak with finishes leading into it. Silva is a good fighter, but Park seems to have the more explosive power and will be the aggressor.
Manon Fiorot | $8900 | -225 | 19%
JJ has used her wrestling a lot of late, and I don’t think she will be able to do that against Fiorot. Fiorot is bigger physically, stronger, and coming out to prove herself after a tough title shot loss. She averages over 5.5 significant strikes per minute and also has wrestling upside if she wants to implement it. The likelihood of this fight ending with the winner scoring 70 is also a very realistic problem, which is why she is lower owned and a GPP pivot.
Mike Malott | $8200 | -115 | 26%
I love Holland and his activity in always wanting to take fights, but Malott is better than the last few guys he has fought and has the pedigree to beat him here. His only loss in the UFC was when he gassed and Magny got him in round 3, but I think we see him smother Holland here en route to a finish in front of his home crowd. He will have to be smart when he gets Holland on the takedowns though, as Holland has really good BJJ and could snatch his neck. I think this fight you want a piece of no matter what, but I am siding with the Canadian here.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Marlon Vera | $7700 | +110 | 20%
If we can get Chito to not take round 1 off and sit back, we has the ability to get a nice DK score for us. He is better on the feet, and shouldn’t have to worry about grappling much as long as his takedown defense stays where it’s been at. Don’t trust judges in a foreign country, but salary savings with finishing upside here.
Djorden Santos | $7000 | +250 | 16%
He “lost” to Diaz last time out where the majority of people thought he did enough to win. Barlow has come down to earth after his contender series/first ufc fight KO’s, with him getting knocked the f out against Sam Patterson last time out. Santos will be aggressive here, and throws a shit ton of strikes while also doesn’t shy away from clinch/wrestling, so as long as Barlow doesn’t catch him with a hook while retreating, should be a path for upset here.
Kyle Prepolec | $6800 | +400 | 8%
This is a scary pick because Prepolec is not a world beater, but Dober went from iron man to looking like his chin is not going to hold up to any decent shot real quick. Very similar metrics, and Dober is for sure the better overall fighter, but Prepolec has the upside of catching him and the salary savings allows you to build almost however you want.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Danny Barlow | $9200 | -450 | 32%
See Santos
Charles Jourdain | $8700 | -130 | 25%
I think this is going to be a very tough fight for Jourdain. Grant is hard to finish, will go toe to toe with Charles on the feet and look to grapple if he needs to, and if Jourdain does not get a finish or takedowns, there is almost no chance he pays off his salary.
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