Back in action this week for UFC 320, headlined by Anakalaev vs Pereira 2 fore the light heavyweight championship in a rematch from earlier this year when Pereira finally looked mortal at LHW. We have 14 fights for now, Ozzie Diaz pulled out but they found Gautier a replacement to murder so we have not lost any fights as of yet. We had a couple fighters who could not make weight, but regardless the fights go on as one became a catchweight fight and Chiasson got fined 25% of her purse.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 320 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Ateba Gautier | $9800 | -950 | 35%
He was a massive -1000 favorite before Diaz withdrew, and now we get some guy fresh off the streets who wasn’t in the UFC to be the sacrificial lamb. He will score 100+ with a first round knockout, it just depends on if he can get some work in before the finish, or a quick round bonus in order to pay off the crazy 9800 salary. Vines looks bad, and is being the sacrificial lamb to an up and coming prospect who has KO’d everyone since stepping onto the contender series.
Merab Dvalishvili | $9300 | -355 | 55%
I love Sandhagen, but Merab is just different. Cory struggled against Umar due to the pressure of his wrestling. Merab is on an entire different level with his pressure and pace and constant chain wrestling, which I think we will see him work to get and keep Sandhagen down like all the previous wrestlers have that Cory has fought. 5 rounds potentially with Merab’s pace makes it hard to fade him. His over under for takedowns is 8.5, which would be 45 DK points with no control time or strikes landed, Merab by sheer will and maybe we see him pull off a finish here.
Punahele Soriano | $8800 | -260 | 31%
Has put up some monster scores since moving down to welterweight in his last two fights. 130 in his first round knockout of Medic last time out, and 170 in a decision win in his fight beforehand. The DK scoring upside is insane here, and I don’t think we will see him face any significant trouble in this spot. We should see another 100+ point outing from him here to become optimal over the people priced around him.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Farid Basharat | $9500 | -450 | 11%
Undefeated, 6 years younger, 4 inch reach advantage, similar output on the feet with 4.4 significant strikes per minute, but he averages over a takedown per round and sports an 80% takedown defense. It could be a boring fight, but that’s why he is 11% owned.
Macy Chiasson | $8600 | -180 |22%
She is going to wrestle Santos down and look to end the fight inside the distance. She did miss weight, but she has a 5 inch height advantage, 4 inch reach advantage, and Santos only has a 53% takedown defense so look for Chiasson to rag doll her a little here.
Daniel Santos | $8300 | -142 | 25%
Yoo had the cool 30 second knockout in his debut which inflates his numbers significantly, but we have seen Santos prove himself in his last 3 fights in which he won and scored over 100 DK points. Another Chute Boxing fighter, he averages over a takedown per round and almost 5 significant strikes per minute.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Alex Pereira | $7300 | +220 | 27%
This is a pick from the heart, because I hate the inactive boring Dagestani champions with a passion and Pereira was one of the most active and star driven champs we have had in a long time. He has KO power from anywhere, and I think this time he will implement more leg kicks which Jan almost killed Ank with. He looked way different than ever before last fight, so I am hoping we get a vintage Poatan win here.
Ramiz Brahimaj | $7000 | +250 | 20%
Fairly big dog here, but coming in with wins in 3 of his last 3 fights with all of them being first round finishes. When he wins, it is a first round finish in his UFC career. Vanderford did well in his debut last time out, but his score was inflated due to fighting someone who had no idea how to get up once he was taken down. Questionable cardio, so if Vandeford gets him down early and he expends his energy getting up he is fucked, but you have to pick dogs somewhere.
Josh Emmett | $6800 | +355 | 14%
These guys analytically are fairly even, Emmett has lost a few fights in the last couple years but the guy has fought the top of the division almost exclusively for a very long time. He has incredible KO power, and got with TJ Dillashaw to work on getting into better shape this camp and showed his last time out he can implement some wrestling if need be. Give me the cheap dog with the big KO upside against the guy who showed us last time out he will run away to survive.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Youssef Zalal | $9400 | -455 | 7%
No chance he pays off salary, would rather play Emmett looking for a flash KO.
Magomed Ankalaev | $8800 | -260| 36%
He is boring, scored low in the last fight against Pereira, and I don’t think we see him put himself in many compromising positions which will lead to a low scoring win if he pulls it off, but let’s hope he gets his stupid face knocked out.
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