This is a crazy close fight a really tough on to predict. There's a couple of obvious paths here. Lucas has pretty shit takedown defense and Stewart can wrestle, Stewart also hates forward pressure and Lucas can get after it. It's tough because my gut is telling me Lucas will come forward, give up takedown and lose but my brain is saying Lucas is the more dangerous of the two, Stewart doesn't love and may clam up. Plus Lucas is fighting at home. I am going to stick with the brain here and lean Lucas, but I can't touch a moneyline, the under 2.5 is likely a sneaky play here.

Lucas Rocha

Lucas Rocha is a solid striker with great volume and body work. He stays busy and pressures forward with almost no regard what comes back his way. Many times, what comes back his way is a takedown because of how upright Rocha stands. If he is taken down he has good enough BJJ to defend and decent enough scramble skills to stand up but both his takedown and submission defense failed him in his UFC debut where he was subbed by Clayton Carpenter

Stewart Nicoll

Steward Nicoll is is a decent wrestler and slick grappler. When he takes you down he has solid control and is always working. He is looking for positions, landing strikes and staying busy. He is a strong guy and uses that strength well. His striking is a bit stiff, but he has nice leg kicks and isn't afraid to exchange. You're going to see a bunch of KOs on his record, but they are pretty much ground and pound finishes. He is coming off the submission loss to Jesus Aguilar where he hated the forward pressure took a bad shot and was guillotined.