This is the first card the PFL are hosting since they got a new CEO and started to make some big changes. They are no longer doing the tournaments and are finally doing a traditional champion and ranking system. This should be a pretty good card to start tuning in to the PFL. It takes place 11:30 AM ET on Friday. I think it is broadcast on ESPN + and DAZN but not 100% sure.
USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV (19-0) vs. PAUL HUGHES (14-2) 2 – PFL Lightweight Championship
This is a great rematch, but I do think we are going to see Nurmagomedov win another decision. Their last fight was certainly a lot closer than everyone expected due to Hughes being able to really put it on Nurmagomedov in the middle rounds. Hughes is a fantastic striker and his take down defense has held up well, but I do think we see Usman come with a more wrestling heavy game plan which should get him some more success than it did in the first fight. A lot of people are backing Hughes to win in this rematch as a + 250 underdog, but I am boring and am going to pick Nurmagomedov again.
Pick: Usman Nurmagomedov by decision. Medium confidence.
COREY ANDERSON (19-6) vs. DOVLET YAGSHIMURADOV (25-7-1) 2 – PFL Light Heavyweight Championship
This is another rematch for a vacant PFL title. Since then Anderson beat Karl Moore for a belt at Bellator and Yagshimuradov won the PFL title in 2024. Yagshimuradov is a stocky, powerful, pressure boxer with a lot of power in his hands. His wrestling has been the weak point of his game which Anderson was able to exploit a few years ago. We haven't seen Anderson be super active but I think we should see him go to that game plan again here. Both guys are getting older but I will believe in Anderson's elite wrestling to get the fight down and avoid the power of Yagshimuradov.
Pick: Corey Anderson by decision. Medium confidence.
MAGOMED MAGOMEDOV (21-4) vs. SERGIO PETTIS (24-7) 2 – Bantamweight
This is a great fight and the winner probably fights Marcirley Alves for the bantamweight title next. Magomed Magomedov is a solid wrestler coming off a razor close win over the very talented Khamidov. His striking is alright but it isn't super technical and he will need to get take downs here. I think Pettis will have the striking advantage but in a few of his recent fights he has been struggling to keep his fights standing. He is coming off a win over Raufeon Stots which is an impressive victory as Stots is a great wrestler, but I think Magomed can offer a bit more on the feet and will mix in his striking and take downs better.
Pick: Magomed Magomedov by decision. Low-medium confidence.
ARCHIE COLGAN (12-0) vs. JAY JAY WILSON (11-1) – Lightweight
Both of these guys are very good but I think Colgan can offer a bit more. Colgan has great boxing and wrestling, and we saw some grappling out of him against Barnaoui. He shoots for take downs very regularly, and he gets them often as well. Once he gets his take downs his control is pretty good, but not fantastic. Jay Jay Wilson is very content to fight off of his back though. Wilson is a former featherweight but he is now a pretty big lightweight. He strikes from range pretty well but I would consider his grappling his best skill set. He showed great BJJ against Barnaoui himself and recently put on a dominant performance over Mads Burnell. I think in this fight Colgan is going to get his take downs as Wilson's initial take down defense isn't great, and we will see him win with control.
Pick: Archie Colgan by decision. Medium confidence.
JACK CARTWRIGHT (12-2) vs. CAOLAN LOUGHRAN (10-2) – Bantamweight (140 lbs)
Cartwright has accepted this on very short notice. Both of these guys are grapplers with not so great striking, but Loughran is going to be significantly bigger here. I also think he is the much better wrestler and should be able to control the positions.
Pick: Caolan Loughran by decision. High confidence.
POUYA RAHMANI (4-0) vs. SLIM TRABELSI (8-0) – Heavyweight
Both of these guys are legitimate heavyweight prospects. Rahmani is probably the UAE's best chance at an elite fighter in a heavy weight class. He is an elite grappler as it is, with multiple grappling match wins over former BJJ world champions, Olympic wrestlers, and American college wrestlers. He even has a grappling win over Slim Trabelsi. In his MMA fights he doesn't strike, he just looks to instantly shoot take downs. Trabelsi is also a renowned MMA prospect and has some great wins on his record. He hasn't had an easy run as he has struggled against wrestlers in the past. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence in him here but he is certainly the better striker, and therefore is more well rounded for MMA. I also don't know about Rahmani's cardio in 5 minute rounds in MMA. I think this is a situation where Rahmani gets a round 1 submission, or Trabelsi survives and we see him take over. I'm taking the + 300 odds on Trabelsi but this is a low confidence pick.
Pick: Slim Trabelsi by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
OMAR EL DAFRAWY (14-5) vs. FLORIM ZENDELI (10-1-1) – Welterweight
This is a great fight. Omar fights a lot like Prates, where he strikes very well from range. He is listed at 5'9″ but I do think he is a bit taller than that. He has thrived fighting for PFL MENA and could potentially become a star for the PFL from Arfica/Middle East. Florim Zendeli is a very aggressive fighter who goes for the kill in round 1. If he doesn't get it, he does gas out pretty bad. He is going to present a tough challenge to Omar as Omar is mostly a striker where Florim can grapple pretty well. I think Omar is good enough to either snipe Zendeli early, or take over after the first round.
Pick: Omar El Dafrawy by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
LUANN SARDINHA (9-1) vs. MIRAFZAL AKHTAMOV (8-1-1) – Lightweight
Same situation as before. Akhtamov is going to look for the finish early but could gas out trying. Sardinha is crazy inactive but when he shows up he does look good. If Sardinha was more active I would be a bit more confident in him.
Pick: Luann Sardinha by KO/TKO. Low-Medium confidence.
TAKESHI IZUMI (6-4) vs. VINICIUS CENCI (9-3) – Lightweight
Cenci being one of my most confident picks of the card was not expected. Cenci is a pretty decent boxer but he shines with his grappling. Izumi just doesn't possess finishing ability.
Pick: Vincius Cenci by submission. High confidence.
MAKKASHARP ZAYNUKOV (17-4) vs. JOHN MITCHELL (10-2) – Lightweight
Zaynukov is a super boring wrestler but seems like PFL are continuing to build him up here.
Pick: Makkasharip Zaynukov by decision. High confidence.
JARRAH HUSSEIN AL-SILAWI (20-7) vs. GREGORY BABENE (23-12) – Middleweight
Al-Silawi has no chin at all. He is definitely the better fighter out of the two but I don't think I will ever trust his ability to take a punch. Babene is 42 years old but he does hit hard enough (I think).
Pick: Gregory Babene by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
