Back in action this week for UFC Fight Night Perth, It has, of course, a ton of Australians on the card, but overall it is a pretty decent fight card. Headlined by Ulberg and Reyes, which is really the only big name recognition fight on the card, but for DFS purposes we have a few really good matchups to pick from. We have 12 fights on the card after Oban Elliott and Justin Tafa both withdrew due to an illness, and surprisingly we do not have any crazy weight misses for what seems like the first time in a while.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Perth slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Alexia Thainara | $9200 | -235 | 19%
Has a big 6 inch reach advantage, is more aggressive, averages almost 6 significant strikes per minute, over a takedown per round, and looks for submissions on stop once she has you on the ground. This should be a pretty fast paced fight for women’s MMA and I think we see Thainara get a quick win here.
Jimmy Crute | $8900 | -185 | 31%
Averages over a takedown per round, 4 significant strikes per minute, and has the wrestling upside to win a round 10-8 against someone like Erslan who if he gets taken down will struggle to get up with Crute in control. He has legit 120+ upside due to his wrestling.
Brando Pericic | $8800 | -225 | 40%
Chalk of the night, but he is very much taller, and this fight is -1000 to finish inside the distance. They are both making their UFC debut here, but Pericic looks to be the better overall striker and this is where both of them want the fight to be the majority of the time.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Jack Jenkins | $9400 | -280 | 21%
He has elite leg kicks, above average wrestling, and should be able to bully Taveras who is moving up a weight class. The only issue will be if it stays standing he tends to really rely on the leg kicks, which have resulted in multiple TKO due to breaking his opponents legs, but does not lead to many knockdowns or quick finishes which at this price point you will need.
Navajo Sterling | $9100 | -235 | 30%
He looked very much improved last time out, and gets Bellato who is okay but I don’t think he is better on the feet than Sterling. This very well could go to decision, in which case we will need a ton of significant strikes from Sterling, but he should win and I think he can knockout the actor Bellato here.
Michelle Montague | $9000 | -220 | 25%
It’s another PFL “can’t miss signing” coming over who wrestles. If Carolina keeps the fight on the feet she will win.Montague will have the upside due to the takedowns scoring so well on DK, but she will have to navigate the savvy vet here in her debut and not pull a Pico.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jamie Mullarkey | $8000 | -125 | 24%
He is a tough SOB who has had some bad luck lately. Bedoya stinks, he has high output on the feet but he cannot stop a takedown and Jamie should look to wrestler here and control the fight. Mullarkey averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute to go along with almost a takedown per round of his fights, so in a win he should score pretty well for DK purposes.
Cam Rowston | $7700 | +140 | 15%
Petroski is okay, and has the experience, but Rowston has 11 finishes in 12 wins professionally and gets to make his debut in front of his home crowd. I think he has a chance on the feet particularly, but if Andre takes him down and gets sloppy Cam has show submission ability.
Charlie Campbell | $7600 | +130 | 34%
This is going to be a fun fight, and I think the winner is optimal this week. Charlie averages 5.55 significant strikes per minute to go along with a takedown per round. He scored 106 in his last UFC fight with multiple takedowns and good control time. Nolan will have the slight 1 inch reach advantage and be 5 years younger, but I think we see Charlie wrestle here and grind out a win.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Carlos Ulberg | $9300 | -250 | 37%
I think at this price point we are going to need a finish inside the first two rounds by Ulberg to pay off. I can see Reyes playing it fairly safe as he thinks the winner of this will be next for a title shot and not rush to put himself in a compromising position. I get that there is 5 round possibility here, but we have seen Ulberg put up stinkers and I would rather side with someone who has takedown ability at least.
Josias Musasa | $8700 | -150 | 24%
He is a striker going against someone who will look to grapple more than likely, at 8700 he will now get some ownership from the 2 fighters withdrawing in the 8k range, and does not have grappling upside. He has power, so if he lands a KO shot I will have egg on my face here, but not going to use a 24% owned one dimension guy who has not shown he can actually knock someone’s lights out in the UFC.
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