Back in action this week for UFC fight night Shanghai, which should be a pretty fun card overall even though you will have to either stay up all night to watch it live, or wake up at 3AM to see what is going on. This fight card is loaded up with some fairly big favorites, so there are only a few betting underdogs who will look decent to pick from, but at least we have 12 fights this week (hopefully true come Saturday) and they made sure to have a few bangers on the card.
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$9,000+ PRICE POINT
MICHEL PEREIRA
I hope we get the fun, crazy Michel back this week. He has the ability to become an absolute animal in the octagon, with both his powerful striking and elite grappling. He is coming off b2b losses, one where he was dominated by Fluffy’s wrestling (which at this point everybody has this happen) and a super boring, low output fight against Abus Magomedov where he was not his normal self. He has slate breaking upside with his insane power and ability to find submissions, and I think we see him get back in the win column here. He averages over 4.5 significant strikes per minute, a takedown per fight, and when he finds a finish he averages 100 DK points.
ALJAMAIN STERLING
Is one of the best wrestlers/grapplers in the entire UFC, showcased his ability with his scrambles and reversals last fight against Evloev which was a very close fight that did not go his way. Ortega seems washed, he has only won 2 times in 6 years and his last win was when Yair had him hurt and then couldn’t finish it and gassed. Sterling is not going to gas out, he will be able to defend the submission attempts and will not put himself in a bad spot and I think we see a wrestling and control masterclass from Aljo for 5 rounds which will score great for DK. He averages more significant strikes per minute than T City, a takedown per round and has much better defense on the feet.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
SUYOUNG YOU
This is the classic wrestler vs striker, and You has a pretty solid offensive wrestling attack and if Xiao cannot stuff the takedowns, then it will quickly be the chain wrestling game where You racks up DK points and has a monster score. In his two UFC fights, You is averaging over 6 minutes of control time and over a takedown per round. He is not a big striker, so if he does not realize success on the feet, his 1.88 significant strikes per minute will not hold up, so we need him to wrestle here.
MAHESHATE
Gage is going to look to grapple here more than likely, but Maheshate will have the slight advantage in reach, he is 3 inches taller, and just has more overall experience inside the Octagon against high level fighters, This fight is the closest lined odds of any of them on the entire card, so I am going to side with the slight underdog here for the savings.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
KEVIN BORJAS
Borjas has had a very tough stretch to start his career, with his first opponent being Josh Van who is fighting for the title next, followed up with fights against a TKO loss to Costa and then a unanimous decision win over Rodriguez who was supposed to beat him. Borjas has an 80% finish rate in the fights he wins, all by KO/TKO, and he gets Sumudaerji who has lower output on the feet, equal takedown attempts, and got his first win in 3 years in April this year against a very mediocre Raposo.
WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA
I think my first reaction when I saw this fight is going to be similar to many others, “holy shit Sergei is going to murder Waldo.” However, when you look at the analytics, Waldo has a higher output, is more athletic, and Sergei is going to rely on his reach and boxing in a fight where he may need more than that to win. Waldo has shown the ability to adopt whatever gameplan is needed to win, and Pavlovich is coming in off a 3 fight streak of 2 losses and one of the most boring wins ever by him where he wrestled Rozenstruik. Sergei has 1 punch KO power and can do it quickly, but any win by Waldo should pay off his salary. He averages nearly 6 significant strikes per minute, has won 5 fights in a row in the UFC, and 7 of his last 8.
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