Back in action this week for UFC Fight Night Vegas 109. Yet another Apex card….but at least the main event is nice, with a matchup of highly ranked middleweights with Roman Dolidze taking on Anthony Hernandez.
We have 12 fights this week, and most of the dogs on this card are massive underdogs so we could have another card like last week where we did not have a favorite lose until Magny won on the main card and then Duncan won the co-main to add a second. Very tough week for DFS but nonetheless we trudge on.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
ELIJAH SMITH
He looked like an absolute stud on the contender series and then had to go out and really earn the decision win last time out. He is a prolific wrestler who will rack up takedowns and control and I think we see him get a finish this time around and break 100+ DK points. He will be the bigger and stronger fighter in the octagon and has higher output on the feet than Kazama and is a better wrestler.
CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN
The range is pretty limited, but I think CLD has higher upside than Walker and I am kind of iffy on spending money on Erceg considering his 3 fight losing streak. CLD averages about 5 significant strikes per minute, averages around 95 DK points when he wins, but he is primarily a striker who only has 1 takedown in the UFC so we are going to need him to piece up Anders on the feet and find a finish with this price tag.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
JOSELYN EDWARDS
Has scored over 100 in her last two wins in the UFC, taking on Cachoeira who will be a little bit smaller and have a 5 inch reach disadvantage against Edwards. Edwards has higher output on the feet, Cachoeira averages being hit with 7 significant strikes per minute and Joselyne can fall back on wrestling if she needs to.
JEAN MATSUMOTO
He got robbed by the judges in his last fight, but I think he will learn from that to not just get takedowns and have control without inflicting damage. He averages 2+ more significant strikes per minute than Johns, 2 more takedowns per fight, is 6 years younger and has a 2 inch reach advantage. I think the young kid finds a finish here to redeem his first loss.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
ROMAN DOLIDZE
This is kind of a scary pick, because we all know what is coming from Fluffy. Relentless chain wrestling with ground and pound and some submission attempts thrown in. Roman will be the bigger fighter- he fights at light heavyweight also sometimes, which I think will come in handy when dealing with Fluffy’s wrestling. He is the dog for a reason, but if he gets a win it probably will come with some reversals, takedowns of his own and there is always the chance of a finish inside the distance for Roman.
ODE OSBOURNE
These guys are both 2-3 in their last 5, but Ode is an explosive athlete who has the ability to put your lights out, and that is exactly what has happened to Erceg his last 2 fights. I think Ode probably has the highest ceiling of the dogs with a 1st round KO upside which is 100+ DK points, but he is a big dog for a reason so I am not going to go wild here.
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