We have a 14 fight slate this week, which is probably the best number of fights for DFS in my opinion. Headlined by Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight for the BMF belt against Max Holloway, there are a handful of pretty fun fights to pick from here for DFS purposes, although not very many of the dogs look live for a win which always makes it a really interesting game theory slate.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Nashville slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Islam Dulatov| $9600 | -650 | 29%
Fugitt is not a good UFC fighter, going against a tank who will not only get multiple takedowns per round but he will look for ground and pound to finish. He is 5-0 in his last 5, 10 years younger, and I think we see a very one sided affair here. 5 takedowns per 15 and 14.27 significant strikes per minute is insane from his DWCS bout.
Ateba Gautier | $9400 | -650 | 29%
He is a beast, going up against a wrestler who just got outwrestled en loss to Finney who stinks. Gautier just should be able to keep it standing and knock out Valentin. He has a 4 inch reach advantage, a definitive power advantage, and we should see a knockdown/KO win for him to payoff. He is 7-0 with 6 wins by KO, and sports a 91% takedown defense which is what Valentin will look to do.
Ryan Spann | $8700 | -210| 35%
Both of these guys are kind of meh, but Brzeski really stinks and Spann has the ability to not only win on the feet but he is elite at grappling and can submit you from anywhere. I think we see him get a finish here.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Daniel Zellhuber| $9500| -650| 23%
This is going to be a striking match, much like his last fight against Ribovics, and if we are having that style of fight I am going to take the 13 year younger, bigger fighter who has a 4 inch reach advantage and lands 2 more significant strikes per minute. He has not scored 90+ in his wins, so this is very risky because you’re going to need a finish, but he is lower owned than the other guys around him.
Kevin Holland| $9300 | -550 | 26%
Holland is so wild to fight yet again this summer a month after his last bout. He has a 7 inch reach advantage, will be able to get Drod to the ground if he needs to and if he does get him down he is elite at grappling and can find a submission anywhere. Holland inside the distance(otherwise he will not pay off his salary)
Brendan Allen| $8800 | -205 | 18%
Some bad blood here, but Allen just seems to be slightly better everywhere this fight can go and has the elite BJJ to fall back to. He had a crazy grapple heavy match against Fluffy where I think he showed that he would be able to beat just about anyone else on the ground besides the chain wrestling champ Fluffy. Vetorri is just super durable and does not get knocked out, but I think Allen can outpoint him or find a submission here.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Dustin Poirier | $8000 | +118 | 38%
He is just as good at boxing as Max is, has beaten him twice, and also has the ability to find a submission win just like in their first fight. It is his last fight before he retires so that is a little worrisome, but I think he wins and rides off into the sunset. He has more ways to win, and looks to be in the best shape of his entire career. Max finally got his chin cracked by Ilia, so we will see if Poirier can make it back to back KO’s or just grind out a win via decision.
Marcin Prachnio | $7600 | +250 | 15%
How the hell Crute is so high priced and a big favorite is beyond me, but give me the value here where all he has to do is stay off his back and he can beat Crute. Better on the feet, and Crute has not won a fight in years, so give us the dog here against Jimmy. Crute is coming off a draw where he won round 1 10-8 and then almost got finished the last two rounds. Crute will look to get this to the ground, Prachnio will have to navigate that well and then should be able to find the shots on the feet to beat Crute.
Nicolle Caliari| $7400 | +275 | 9%
This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and in true form I am going to side with the underdog in the dreaded opening fight of the card that is the only bout with women fighting. Caliari averages over a takedown per round, and Judice will look to keep it on the feet here. I think we see Caliari either grind out a decision win by having takedowns and control, or maybe get a submission win by her, but either way a win at her price is more than enough to pay off.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Roman Kopylov | $8900 | -224 | 27%
I think Costa gives him a lot of trouble with how durable he is, and may even look to mix in some takedowns because Roman struggles getting up. Kopylov has an iffy gas tank, Costa has shown he can fight for the full 15 minutes. I think we see Paulo go back to his ways of trying to destroy people, and regardless if Kopylov does no find a finish, his offensive wrestling stinks so he won’t get takedowns here, he could very well win and score in the 60’s or 70’s.
Dan Ige| $8600 | -210 | 26%
I think Ige wins, and for sure has the KO power and ability to finish Pitbull, but I think we are going to see Freire wrestle here and try to mitigate the disadvantage he will have on the feet which will lead to a lot of backpedaling, getting off his back from the mat, and lost minutes which lowers his output and leads to a lower score.
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