We have a 12 fight slate this week, which is probably the best number of fights for DFS in my opinion. We have what is almost sure to be a high scoring main event between veteran Derrick Lewis and prospect Tallison Teixeira and then a co-main of veteran Stephen Thompson and prospect Gabriel Bonfim. Below them on the card we have several potentially high scoring spots to target as well. Let’s get into it!
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Nashville slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Mike Davis | $9800 | -900 | 31%
Will be one of the higher owned plays on the slate even at 9800 because Ramirez is not that good. Davis will have a big advantage in wrestling, and should score very well here as Ramirez has not shown the ability to defend a takedown.
Vitor Petrino| $9600 | -700 | 38%
Lane is cheeks. Petrino can either take him down and finish the fight on the ground, or we have seen Lane get KO’d plenty in his fighting career. Petrino is 10 years younger, the better grappler, the heavier hitter, and is the pick to win inside the distance.
Tallison Texeira | $9000 | -260| 52%
Texeira is hittable, but has an insane 14.61 significant strike per minute average and has a 4 inch height and reach advantage against Lewis who is not a wrestler and will look to stand and strike. I think we see another quick KO for Tallison here just like last time out, a 15 year age difference for the undefeated prospect also.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Gabriel Bofim| $9300| -355| 29%
15 years younger, coming in off a slick submission win, and averages a takedown per round against old man Thompson who implements the Karate style fighting and cannot stop takedowns. I think we will see Wonderboy retire after he gets submitted here.
Morgan Charriere| $8900 | -255 | 23%
This is a close fight, but Charriere should be one of the lowest owned favorites that we see and should be able to beat Nate with his speed and ability to grapple. Prefer Texeira for 100 more, but if you want to pivot off Tallison in a Lewis lineup this is a good pivot.
Steve Garcia| $8400 | -120 | 36%
This is a fairly even fight looking at the analytics but Garcia is 5-0 his last 5 and Kattar is 1-4, The gameplan to beat Kattar has been on display the last couple years, so look for the bigger, stronger, better grappler in Garcia to get another win inside the distance.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jake Matthews | $7800 | +130 | 22%
He is going to get inside the reach advantage Chidi has and work him. He will look to implement more takedowns and clinch work than normal, but I want the guy who will get takedowns and control the clock if I am taking a close fight.
Tuco Tokkos | $7600 | +125 | 25%
This fight is gross, but Tafa stinks and Tokkos just needs to get him to the ground in any manner and he will finish the round on top and in control. I think we see him grind out 2 rounds at least in that manner en route to a decision win and score like 80 points.
Valter Walker | $7400 | +170 | 31%
This is a true test of wrestler vs striker, and I want to take the upside of the wrestling with Walker. Coming off back to back submission wins, It will come down to his ability to get Kennedy to the mat and I will take the upside for DK scoring with Valter.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Fatima Kline | $9900 | -1400 | 19%
She will probably win easily, but no chance I pay 9900 for her when I can pick from the other fighters in the 9k range with higher odds of the fight finishing inside the distance.
Chris Curtis| $9100 | -305 | 14%
Does not KO anyone, does not wrestle, and fight is favored to go to decision. Not picking someone this high priced without finishing upside or grappling.
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