LFA 212 is a stacked card in Brazil, broadcast on UFC Fight Pass on Friday 11th July at 08:00 PM ET. I break down the fights I am most looking forward to and give some prelim picks. The fights I didn't predict I couldn't find much on either fighter as a lot of these prelim fights feature people making their LFA debuts and their previous fights I couldn't find.
MARCOS DEGLI (12-3) vs. MATHEUS SEVERINO (14-4) – Flyweight Championship
Severino is taking this fight on short notice. Degli is the champion and he has a lot of power for flyweight. He strikes with a Muay Thai style (National Muay Thai champion in Brazil) where he stands very upright, throwing a lot of jabs and kicks to the body. he has great movement and counter striking on the feet as well. He has a BJJ black belt but he doesn't look to wrestle super regularly as his striking is great already. He has shown great scrambled and wrestling defense in the times his opponents have tried to take him down. He is a little small for the weight class as he has a very slim build at 5'6″. Matheus Severino is certainly more aggressive than Degli, but he is less technical. He likes to throw down on the feet. Despite having a lot of KO wins he seems like grappling is main part of his game as he was able to take down Lucas Rocha easily in their fight and took the back for most of the first round. After that first round though Severino got much more desperate for the take down and Rocha started to take over with his own striking. Degli has shown great TDD in the past and the fact this is 5 rounds makes me like him more as Severino seems to gas out once the fight goes on.
Pick: Marcos Degli by KO/TKO. High confidence.
HERBETH SOUSA (19-2) vs. MICHEL LIMA (19-6) – Bantamweight
Sousa is not as good as his record suggests as he is quite one dimensional, but I think he has the right skill set to beat Lima. Sousa is a grappler with a BJJ black belt and he uses it quite well. He has a lot of quick submission wins but his level of competition has not been very good recently. His take down offense is pretty good but his defense isn't great. That doesn't really matter as most fights don't want to take him down anyways. He claims to have a Muay Thai striking style, but I don't think that is showcased at all in his fights. On the feet he is mostly throwing sloppy boxing combinations to close the distance. Lima will certainly have the striking advantage here so if he can keep it on the feet he will find a lot of success. But I don't think Lima's take down defense is exceptionally good. On paper Sousa looks like the main but the split decision win against an 8-6 fighter in Jungle Fight stands out a lot. In that fight he spent the whole first round looking for a RNC. He then controlled all of round 2 but didn't really do any damage. In round 3 he looked super gassed, and nearly got finished which isn't a great sign. The thing about Sousa is he actually looked really good before he got knocked out by Muin Gafurov. Since then he hasn't been as dominant but he will shoot take downs very regularly. Lima could try win based off damage if it goes to the scorecards but I will be picking Sousa with low confidence.
Pick: Herbeth Sousa by submission. Low confidence.
DANIEL ARAUJO (7-0) vs. THOMAS BRYAN (7-3) – Bantamweight
Daniel Araujo has a 7-1 professional boxing record, as well as a 50-3 amateur record. In most of his career he has knocked out absolute jobbers but the LFA matched him up against Azizbek Temirov from Uzbekistan who also had a boxing background in his last fight. Araujo trains with the Bonfim brothers. He looked fantastic fighting all three rounds behind a jab and counter striking well. I don't think LFA were expecting him to win that one but now that he has got the big win he is getting a step down in competition. Bryan was knocked out 4 months ago which is not a good sign. He is a grappler though which is interesting as Araujo's take down defense has not been tested much. I think this is a set up for Araujo to get a finish and perhaps a DWCS opportunity.
Pick: Daniel Araujo by KO/TKO. High confidence.
SAMUEL DIAS (10-2) vs. JULIANO PRESCENDO (10-3) – Lightweight
Samuel Dias is super fun. He has been quite inactive recently which is a shame but I am glad to see him back. He is very string for the division and mostly comes forward and bombs away. It's hard to tell how good he is because he finishes his fights so quickly due to his style, but he is fun to watch. he is going to have a big size advantage here and I think his power is going to overwhelm Prescendo. Not sure why so many are picking Dias by decision on tapology, Dias just throws down like an idiot.
Pick: Samuel Dias by being fun (KO/TKO). Medium confidence.
DIEGO DIAS (19-5) vs. CLAUDIO RIBEIRO (12-6) – Middleweight
I never thought Ribeiro was UFC level but his DWCS performance was incredible, and he was able to get a KO win in the UFC. Ribeiro is a strong guy but he lacks technique. He is very powerful but he is hittable on the feet and his boxing is very sloppy. We did some big leg kicks out of his against Razak Alhassan at least. The UFC match makers were pretty smart with him as he only fought strikers in the promotion, but he is now fighting a grappler. Dias is very stiff on the feet and he doesn't throw much but his wrestling is solid. He will look to take down and grapple Ribeiro early in this fight. If he gets a submission in the first two rounds then we know for sure that he is a legit prospect at 185, even though he is 33. His striking is very basic and he doesn't move his head much so a Ribeiro KO wouldn't shock me, but Dias should be smart enough to avoid it.
Pick: Diego Dias by submission. Medium confidence.
OTHER QUICK PICKS:
Mailton Azevedo by submission (vs. Marcio Cabral). Medium confidence.
Luiz Felipe Herculano by decision (vs. Lucas Gouveia). Low confidence. Couldn't find anything on Gouveia and both guys have been super inactive so hard to tell what either are going to look like. Herculano looks promising at least and has fought for legit promotions before such as Jungle Fight and LFA.
Beatriz Consuli by submission (vs. Naiane Silva). Consuli is a legit prospect with a strong amateur record but she has shown no ability to end the fight at all. She is fighting a step down in competition here so I would be shocked if she can't get a finish.
