PFL is back with another semifinal round of their 2025 tournament. This card features the semi finals for the middleweights, light heavyweights, and heavyweights. This card will be broadcast on Friday, 20th June at 08:30 PM ET on ESPN and ESPN + (prelims).

FABIAN EDWARDS (14-4) vs. JOSH SILVEIRA (14-4) – Middleweight

Edrwards will win as long as he can defend the take downs, but Silveira is massive for this weight class and could bully his way to take downs. Silveira beat Mike Shipman who has great take down defense by bullying him into the clinch and landing lots of knees. He has been out wrestled before though and when stuck on the feet we have seen him lose to lesser strikers than Edwards. Edwards is good but his take down defense didn't hold up well against Eblen, who to be fair is an elite wrestler. As long as the fight is on the feet Edwards will be the far superior technical striker, and he has shown that he can explode into a KO like he did against Impa Kasanganay.

Pick: Fabian Edwards by decision. Medium confidence.

PHIL DAVIS (25-7) vs. SULLIVAN CAULEY (7-1) – Light Heavyweight

Massive experience difference here, and Cauley has shown poor take down defense in the past. Phil Davis needs to stay safe on the feet and if he gets his take downs he should win. I do worry a little about Davis age as he is 41. Sullivan Cauley has smoked everyone he has beaten, by being a big and dangerous striker. His one loss comes to Luke Trainer who is a 6'6″ demon who took him down and submitted him rather quickly. That is the worry about Cauley. His take down defense has proven to be not great as he did get toppled over by Trainer and was even taken down by Polizzi. I know Davis just somehow beat Rob Wilkinson by KO and was looking good on the feet but he is not a striker. Davis is typically a wrestler who finds a lot of control and can make fights boring. That is 100% the path to victory here for Davis so I am picking him to play it safe and take the fight down to the ground. Cauley's fights haven't lasted long win or lose so hard to know how his cardio will hold up and if it's bad Davis could find a late finish potentially. As long as Davis doesn't get knocked out early he should be fine.

Pick: Phil Davis by decision. Medium-high confidence.

SERGIO PETTIS (23-7) vs. RAUFEON STOTS (21-2) – Bantamweight

Stots has been inactive but his style matches well to beat Pettis. Pettis has been out wrestled recently by Horiguchi who is much smaller than him and Stots. Stots does struggle against guys who have big power and Pettis does have a chance at an explosive KO, but Stots likely won't give him the opportunity. Stots is a pretty big guy for bantamweight and he is also a pretty solid wrestler as well. Sabatello lost him in the wrestling department twice and if Sabatello is good at anything it is wrestling. Stots has been inactive which is a concern but I think if anything this is due to contract disputes which many high profile Bellator guys have struggled with since the PFL merger. This could bring in a factor of Stots' biggest weakness though which is dealing with someone explosive, which Pettis can do. Despite Pettis losing the rounds to Horiguchi in their first fight, Pettis was able to conenct with a huge spinning backfist to win the belt. In their rematch at RIZIN once again Horiguchi was taking down Petts and controlling him with relative ease, but in the third round Pettis landed a monster right hand that dropped Horiguchi, nearly beating him by comeback KO again. As long as Stots drowns Pettis with pressure he should be able to safely avoid the big strikes from Pettis.

Pick: Raufeon Stots by decision. Low-medium confidence.

DALTON ROSTA (10-1) vs. AARON JEFFREY (16-5) 2 – Middleweight

This is a rematch from a couple years ago when Jeffrey really exposed Rosta for being one dimensional. I picked both of these guys as underdogs in their last fight and I'm going with Jeffrey again as a dog here. I think Jeffrey can deal with the take downs and he clearly has a cardio advantage. One of Rosta's best career performances was against Norbert Novenyi Jr. who was a very hyped up grappling and wrestling prospect. But even in that fight he death gassed in round 3. He got a huge win over Sadibou Sy who is a former PFL champion, but Sy is a pure striker and a former welterweight. That was still a very good performance and I did pick him as the dog to win that fight. Aaron Jeffrey beat Murad Ramazanov as a pretty big underdog in his last fight. Like Rosta, Murad Ramazanov is also a pure wrestler. But he was also a former welterweight as well. I am seeing some people confident in Rosta but personally I still like Jeffrey as an underdog again here. He is the better striker of the two and if nothing else has a clear cardio advantage as well. If he can work the body and defend take downs he is going to be able to really wear down on Rosta's gas tank and take over as the rounds go on. Hard to be super confident here but Jeffrey is the more well rounded fighter and it seems like he has grown from his embarrassing loss to one of the oldest men alive, John Salter.

Pick: Aaron Jeffrey by decision. Low confidence.

ANTONIO CARLOS JR. (17-6) vs. SIMEON POWELL (11-1) – Light Heavyweight

Very hard to get a good read on ACJ in the big 2025. Antonio Carlos Jr. won the PFL championship against a weak 2021 light heavyweight field after leaving the UFC. Since then he has participated on a  reality TV show in Brazil which he got up to no good on and has returned looking a bit worse than he did a few years ago. He's not washed but he's clearly not as sharp as he used to be. At this point he is a pure grappler and he would have lost to Moore if Moore didn't go into that fight with the worst game plan I have ever seen. ACJ is only good at BJJ and Moore was shooting take downs on him in the first two rounds like a total idiot. I think Simeon Powell is smart enough to recognize that he is going to have a huge advantage on the feet here with his size and power. As long as the fight is on the feet Powell is live for a KO.

Pick: Simeon Powell by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.

VALENTIN MOLDAVSKY (14-4) vs. ALEXANDR ROMANOV (19-3) – Heavyweight

Moldavsky showed disappointing take down defense against Linton Vassell, and Romanov is a very good wrestler. I like the opportunity to get Romanov as a pretty big underdog here. Moldavsky is definitely the more athletic of the two as Romanov is a fat mess. Moldavsky is a pretty fast heavyweight with decent boxing and some good wrestling as well. He will be the better striker in this match up for sure, but that isn't uncommon in a Romanov match up. What I think give Romanov the edge here is the fact that Moldavsky has proven to crumble against a wrestling game plan before. Moldavsky has lost multiple times now to Linton Vassell, and even thought I think he actually won the fight, he also lost a decision to Ryan Bader. Romanov is good at wrestling and we have seen this on multiple occasions, even in losing efforts. He rag dolled Marcin Tybura for a whole round at elevation, landed 6 take downs against Rodrigo Nascimento, and took down the great old man Blagoy Ivanov twice. If he comes into this fight shooting take downs like he did against Nascimento, I think he will be a great underdog to side with.

Pick: Alexandr Romanov by decision. Low confidence.

BIAGGIO ALI WALSH (2-0) vs. RONNIE GIBBS (1-0) – Lightweight

Biaggio Ali Walsh experiment in the big 2025. I genuinely don't know anything about Gibbs. I tried to look into it and all I found was an instagram reel of his pro fight and the comments were talking about how he was losing until the stoppage. Looks like he's getting sacrificed.

Pick: Biaggio Ali Walsh by KO/TKO. High confidence.

RODRIGIO NASCIMENTO (12-3) vs. OLEG POPV (20-2) – Heavyweight

Popov is going to make this one boring. This right really only comes down to whether or not Popov can get the take down. All he wants to do is stall on the clinch and work his wrestling. On the feet he has little to nothing to offer and doesn't really strike much. Nascimento isn't the best heavyweight but he did have a solid UFC run which included a main event against Derrick Lewis. He will have a striking advantage here and statistically he does have good take down defense, but when he fought a great wrestler in Romanov that defense didn't hold up. Popov will shoot a large amount of take downs and I am predicting him to get a decent amount of them. If not, Nascimento could make me look silly.

Pick: Oleg Popov by decision. Low confidence.

RAFAEL XAVIER (13-8) vs. KARL ALBREKTSSON (14-7) – Light Heavyweight

Albrektsson doesn't move his head and got KOed 2 months ago. He is a high pressure fighter who does have an interesting history which involves an early win over Vadim Nemkov and a fight against Jiri Prochazka in RIZIN, but recently he hasn't been on a good run. He moves forwards and never moves his head. This results in him getting caught on the feet way too much. He can win rounds with his wrestling which is what he needs to do to win here. Rafael Xavier is a very solid striker who has been looking pretty good recently – you can make a strong argument for him beating Simeon Powell. He is an athletic striker but in the past take down defense and cardio has been his biggest weakness. He showed improvement in the cardio area against Powell and will be dangerous in this fight as Albrektsson has never addressed his striking defense holes and has been knocked out twice in 6 months. I have been a fan of Albrektsson for years now but I think his chin is cooked.

Pick: Rafael Xavier by KO/TKO. Low confidence.