We have twelve fights on tap for UFC Baku over in Azerbaijan, headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree JR. This is a very top heavy card with not many dogs looking great. There are a few natives to Ajerbeijan fighting on the card, including Fiziev in the co-main, and we get a nice early start so the fights will be finished around dinner time. Overall should be an interesting card to try and find some dogs to pull off upsets.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Baku slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Irina Alekseeva | $8900 | -275 | 20%
She has not fought in almost two years, but Sygula looked lost in takedown defense and then was not able to get herself out of trouble when being taken down. Irina should push the pace and look to get her to the ground and look for either a sub or TKO, and if she can do it in the first two rounds with a few takedowns and control time she should push for 100+ and be optimal.
Myktybek Orolbai | $8500 | -157 | 37%
He is a dog who does not quit, and looks to wrestle when he can. He has 14 takedowns in his 3 UFC fights, is 8 years younger and gets a hometown guy making his debut. This all kind of skews to his favor as long as the doesn’t let it be close to where the hometown judges are deciding a split decision. He should grind out the win here with his grappling and score some nice DK points along the way.
Curtis Blaydes | $9100 | -235| 37%
This fight has been in the works for like 6 months. It is still kind of odd that Blaydes is fighting an unranked guy, but nonetheless the heavyweight division is pretty meh. He has a 4 inch reach advantage, and has shown the ability to weather the storm from wrestlers getting him down like Almeida and still getting a TKO finish. This should 100% be one of those showcase fights where Blaydes shows there levels to the sport.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Oban Elliot| $9500| -455| 25%
Oban is better on the feet, in the clinch, on the ground, and is the younger faster fighter. He averages 4.25 significant strikes per minute and 2 takedowns per fight. Getting Ko on his debut after improving every fight, the pick is Oban, just have to hope he either racks up the takedowns and control or gets a finish being the price he is at.
Muhammad Naimov | $8800 | -270 | 29%
He is better than Grad in all areas of the fight game, he just has to not let Grad stick around and get momentum in the later rounds. Grad did not look good at all last time out, but Lucas gassed en route to Grad finding a 2nd round finish purely bc his opponent gassed and died. Naimov won’t do that, so I like the pick against a chalky dog.
Hamdy Abdelwahab| $8600 | -160 | 17%
I don’t think he is great by any means, clearly his last fight was a razor thin split decision where he gassed and look absolutely awful in the last two rounds. However, Usman is not really good either so we will be taking the side of the home cookin if it goes to decision, or Hamdy actually chooses to wrestle and keeps Usman on his back and racks up control time and strikes.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jamahal Hill | $7800 | -110 | 44%
He is hated so much by fans that you forget how good he really is. He lost to Pereira and Jiri, but other than that he has looked really good in his UFC fights. He is a primary striker going against Khalil who does not wrestle. He has a 3 inch reach advantage, averages over 7 significant strikes per minute in his UFC fights, and I think we see Sweet Dreams get back in the win column.
Ismael Naurdiev | $7500 | +166 | 26%
This is more of a pivot off the Grad chalky underdog play. The dogs don’t look great this week, but I think Naurdiev is live on the feet, he just needs to avoid the grappling with Park. He has a good finish rate as a pro with 66% of his wins being by finish.
Daria Zhelezniakova| $7200 | +200 | 9%
We get a rematch where Daria lost at the end of round one, but looked really good on the feet before being taken down and overwhelmed with a ground and pound TKO. This will be a super low owned play, but a win at her price tag should help as most dogs don’t look great, and if you get a low owned one at 7200 which lets you play more higher priced guys you are in a nice spot for takedowns.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Melissa Mullins | $9000 | -237 | 25%
See the Daria write up above.
Nazim Sadykhov| $9400 | -430 | 34%
More of a price point fade than anything. This week it is tough to fit the top few people as most dogs don’t look great, so for me it comes down to fading one of the top 3 and Oban and Tagir just look safer to outscore him.
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