PFL is back with another semifinal round of their 2025 tournament. This card features multiple weight classes and a lot of alternate bouts. This card will be broadcast on Friday, 20th June at 05:30 PM ET on ESPN.
KEVIN LEE (20-8) vs. GADZHI RABADANOV (25-4-2) – Lightweight
Can Kevin Lee even make 155 on short notice? So many questions about this fight. I do think Lee is being brought in to build up Rabadanov here. Lee has been KOed brutally in sparring multiple times so who even knows what his chin is doing. Lee also looked terrible against Diego Sanchez when he fought for Eagle FC. Rabadanov being -2000 is hilarious but I guess the books don't want anyone making money on him. Lee is still a pretty solid fighter so +1000 for him is crazy but I do just think he gets slept here.
Pick: Gadzhi Rabadanov by KO/TKO. High confidence.
LIZ CARMOUCHE (23-8) vs. ELORA DANA (8-0) – Women's Flyweight
Dana is not a very good striker and once again we are going to see Carmouche with a a rare size advantage. Dana did beat Diana in her last fight as the underdog, but Diana isn't very good at all. Carmouche is a former Bellator world champion and is potentially the favorite to win the whole season. I am seeinga lot of people drying to get Dana as the underdog and I do understand it as Carmouche is now 41 years old. But I don't think we have seen Carmouche show any signs of slowing down yet. She did lose to Taila Santos but Santos is one of the best flyweights in the world regardless of promotion and at 40 years old I think the loss is understandable. Dana looked great in the PFL but I didn't love her regional scene tape as her striking looked very sloppy. Dana is going to need to submit Carmouche in my opinion, but that is easier said than done as we have seen Carmouche deal with higher level, and bigger grapplers in the past.
Pick: Liz Carmouche by submission. Medium confidence.
MANSOUR BARNAOUI (22-6) vs. ARCHIE COLGAN (11-0) – Lightweight
Colgan is a great wrestler, and a great boxer. I don't like that he can be lay and pray at times on the ground as he is taking on Barnaoui who is a very talented grappler. As long as Colgan avoids submission he should be the one winning the rounds here. Barnaoui is dealing with some pretty serious allegations in the background as well so I highly doubt his mental is going to be 100%. I like Colgan as a fighter a lot but in my opinion this is his toughest test yet. It is worth noting Brent Primus was able to beat Barnoui with his own lay and pray strategy, so Colgan could be able to do the same. I like Colgan's boxing a lot as well.
Pick: Archie Colgan by decision. Medium confidence.
MARCIRLEY ALVES (13-4) vs. JAKE HADLEY (12-4) – Bantamweight
As long as Hadley mixes in some grappling here, he should do well. Alves is coming off a big win but let's be honest, Leandro Higo looked washed beyond belief. Alves is a very small bantamweight but he does hit hard. We have seen him struggle with grapplers in the past and I think Hadley is good enough to mix his boxing with his grappling.
Pick: Jake Hadley by decision. Medium confidence.
JUSTIN WETZELL (11-2) vs. MANDO GUTIERREZ (11-3) – Bantamweight
Hard to tell how good Wetzell is even though he just had a massive win over Kasumov. Problem is he missed weight by a lot so let's see how he looks here. Mando only has grappling and was getting smoked before he got lucky in his last fight, so I think Wetzell is the better striker as long as the fight is on the feet. Wetzell's regional scene fights showed great take down defense and decent enough striking, but he isn't a great striker in my opinion. I don't rate Mando Gutierrez very highly and he only won his last fight because he got lucky with his opponent slipping over. Before that he was getting smoked on the feet. He does have a chin and I strongly doubt Wetzell will be able to knock him out. Mando is going to need to get his grappling going to win but if Kasum Kasumov can't do it I don't think Gutierrez can.
Pick: Justin Wetzell by decision. Low-medium confidence.
BRENT PRIMUS (16-4) vs. ALFIE DAVIS (18-5) – Lightweight
As long as Primus doesn't get caught on the feet he has a massive wrestling and grappling advantage here. Alfie Davis is a multiple time national kickboxing champion and he fights with a very ‘Wonderboy' type stance. Davis has always struggled against wrestlers and Primus is one of the best. Primus is super boring and is old enough to be my father, but as long as he's shooting take downs I think he gets them and finds control. Davis is going to need a KO to win in my opinion.
Pick: Prent Primus by decision. Medium confidence.
JENA BISHOP (8-2) vs. EKATERINA SHAKALOVA (9-2) – Women's Flyweight
Bishop is a much better grappler and I think she can get take downs here. Bishop struggles against good strikers and I don't rate Shakalova that highly. I am seeing a lot of people picking Shakalova but personally I don't love the fight for here. Shakalova is coming off a career performance where she dominated Velasquez but I think Velasquez is done. Shakalova is pretty small and I don't think her striking is going to be good enough to score big against Bishop. Bishop is pretty big for the weight class and I think she can take down Shakalova and use her grappling. Bishop is coming off a bad performance against Watanabe where she did get dropped and has cardio issues, but she did fight through it and landed some good strikes of her own.
Pick: Jena Bishop by submission. Low-medium confidence.
MAGOMED MAGOMEDOV (20-4) vs. SAVARJON KHAMIDOV (16-0) – Bantamweight
I struggled to pick this one a lot. Ultimately went with Khamidov. Khamidov has not fought great competition but he has shown very solid wrestling and grappling. Magomeodov is the more well rounded fighter and will certainly have a striking advantage here. But we have seen Magomedov get taken down before, even Sabatello got him down a couple times.
Pick: Savarjon Khamidov by decision. Low confidence.
TONY CARUSO (10-2) vs. VINCIUS CENCI (8-3) – Lightweight
Low level fight. Caruso is inactive and very stiff. We have seen Cenci in the PFL and the Contender Series and still have no clue how good he could be. He is a pretty slick striker though and that is where he will hold an advantage. I think a lot of people are going to try fade Cenci here as he is a meme at this point but I'm not sure if Caruso's wrestling is good enough to control him. If Caruso wins I think it would be a decision with grappling.
Pick: Vinicius Cenci by decision or KO/TKO. Low confidence.
MATHEUS MATTOS (14-4-1) vs. LAZARO DAYRON (8-0-1) – Bantamweight
I'm not super sold on Dayron but I have seen Mattos out grappled too many times to pick him against a wrestler. Mattos is a well-built, powerful striker who does have some fun highlights but his wrestling is clearly not good enough for this level. Dayron could have beaten Sabatello if he didn't grab the fence in round 3. Dayron is a physical wrestler, he isn't the biggest guy for the weight class and personally I am not super high on him compared to others, but stylistically this is a good fight for him.
Pick: Lazaro Dayron by decision. Low-medium confidence.
DARRAGH KELLY (7-0) vs. MIKE HAMEL (11-6) – Lightweight
Mike Hamel was pretty active when he fought under Bellator, but we haven't seen him fight for 18 months now. Now he is called up on short notice to fight Darragh Kelly. Hamel is a decent enough wrestler who can strike from range as well. If this was on a full camp and Hamel had been active I would strongly consider picking him as I'm not sold on Kelly yet. Kelly got his best win in his last fight against Hrytsenko, but he overthrew a lot of strikes and didn't manage his cardio very well. This lead to him looking gassed in the second round. Hrytsenko could have won that fight if he was more aggressive. Kelly wants to get the fight to ground where he can use his grappling, but he is still comfortable on the feet. I don't think his striking is great but it is good enough to set up his take downs. At this point it's just hard to tell what Hamel is going to look like after so much time away, and on short notice.
Pick: Darragh Kelly by decision Low confidence.
ALAN DOMINIGUEZ (11-6) vs. NICK MECK (8-2) – Lightweight
Dominiguez isn't very good but he is tough, and Nick Meck has shown he only has one round of cardio. Meck's fights aren't very fun to watch as he does gas out very quickly, but he does have good wrestling. Dominguez could be a good underdog if he can defend the take downs and make Meck gas out but I'm not sure if he can. Meck's fight against Kevin Pease was an absolutely awful watch after round 1 ended.
Pick: Nick Meck by submission. Low confidence.
SARAY OROZCO (8-6) vs. ILARA JOANNE (12-10) – Women's Flyweight
Not a great fight but Orozco is very scrappy and pressuresforwards. She clinches a lot and will have a strength advantage here. Very low level so I highy do not recommend betting but Orozco is surprisingly the underdog. Joane is strictly a striker and is small for the division. I think she can get controlled by Orozco in the clinch.
Pick: Saray Orozco by decision. Low-medium confidence.
