Thirteen fights in total for UFC 316 this weekend up in Jersey. Headlined by Merab vs O’Malley 2 for the Bantamweight Belt, and Pena vs Harrison for the women’s Bantamweight Belt. Overall it should be a good card, 13 fights means the ownership should be spread out, however they added 3 fights late and the mid tier pricing on DK is non-existent now. You will have to nail the underdogs and hope your high end guys go over 10X and are optimal, as we have a lot of fighters with finishing upside on this card. Only had one fighter miss weight – albeit by 6 pounds – it was Lipski da Silva who is not going to be owned regardless. There are not many underdogs who look live, so this could be one of those all but one favorite win type of cards which are always fun for DraftKings purposes.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 316 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Merab Dvalishvili | $9000 | -265 | 53%
Merab is truly the machine, he scored over 130 last time they fight at UFC Noche, he averages well over 100 per ufc fight and will chain wrestle all night long. He shot like 30 takedowns against Umar, controlled O’Malley all night last time they fought, and no matter what Suga has said about blaming a torn Labrum, unless he catches Merab with a knockout shot he will be spending the majority of this fight on his back on the mat. He has averaged 9.2 takedowns per fight over his last 10 UFC fights, and thats including the Aldo fight where he got 0 takedowns the entire fight.
Joshua Van | $9300 | -700 | 24%
Van is an entertaining young fighter who does not stop moving and throwing punches. He averages 8 significant strikes per minute, has 80% takedown defense and last fight out he had to try and defend 21 takedowns. As a striker it is nice to see him score over 100 DraftKings points in 3 of his decision wins, he scored 134 in his TKO win, and with him being 12 years younger I think we see his pace just wear Silva down and he finds a finish. Regardless it should be a nice 130+ significant strikes if it goes the distance and he will be lower owned than Harrison, Azamat and Yoo.
Serghei Spivac | $8300 | -142| 29%
This is going to be a matchup of Spivac the wrestler vs Acosta the kickboxer. Serghei averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute, and in 6 of his 7 UFC wins he has scored over 100 DK points. His only losses in the last 5 years are to Aspinall, Gane, and Almeida. Give me the tested vet Polar Bear here to put a whoopin' on Waldo. He has wins by decision, KO, and a submission so he can get it done in all aspects of the fight, and Waldo really only has 1 path to victory which is on the feet.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Quillan Salkilld| $9400| -450| 17%
He looks to be the better overall fighter in all aspects. We saw his KO power last time out, in his previous fights he has shown the ability to chain wrestle and get multiple takedowns while also averaging twice the significant strikes per minute as Ashmouz. He is going to be lower owned because of the people priced around him. He has a 6 inch reach advantage to help, and is 5 years younger as well.
Joe Pyfer | $9200 | -355 | 18%
This is purely a leverage play due to his ownership. I dislike Joe immensely, but a low owned guy who has finishing upside going up against Gastelum who has taken considerable damage throughout his career and has trouble making the weight these days…Pyfer will have a 5 inch height advantage and a 4 inch reach advantage, and while their metrics are very similar for striking and takedowns, Kelvin is seemingly on the back end of his career and does not have the submission ability like Joe to get a win.
Patchy Mix | $8500 | -180 | 24%
I really thought he would be higher owned going into the projections coming out, but Patchy at 24% is nice. The mid range for salary for this event is tough, but we are getting the debut of the Bellator champ who is 20-1 going up against the guy everyone hates right now in Bautista because he is boring and just fights to win no matter if it is fence control and hanging on for dear life. Patchy is a submission specialist, and trains in Vegas with some elite UFC guys who have all said he is as good as they come.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Andreas Gustafsson | $7500 | +160| 28%
Like I said in the intro, there are not a ton of dogs who look appealing for DFS purposes. Most of this card are heavy favorites, so I want someone like Andreas who is going to charge forward looking to turn Khaos’ lights off. Any win is huge, and with style if he pulls it off it should be inside the distance. He also has wrestling upside, and we saw Bonfim get Williams down and choke him out last fight, although Gustafsson is more of a ground and pound guy, I will take the upside and take a swing here.
Vicente Luque | $7400 | +240 | 20%
This one is kind of hard to pick because Holland is so fun, but you literally never know which version of him is going to show up to fight. He has a 6 inch read advantage over Luque, but Vicente is coming off a really nice submission win and he averages more significant strikes per minute, more takedown attempts, and has a better takedown defense. Give me the dog with 100+ point upside if he finishes Holland quickly. I love Holland, I think he is awesome for being so active and a hilarious trash talker, but his last 10 fights have been abysmal when you look at who he has beat and how often he has lost. He is 100% there to get a paycheck only and go back to his ranch.
Ariana da Silva | $7100 | +450 | 8%
I think not having to cut the last 6 pounds will be helpful, and this is a fight with similar styles where they both prefer to strike. I do not love this play, but for DFS purposes and coming in at 8% owned if she pulls the upset like Fernandes did then you have a contest winning cheap play. I would only get here making multiple lineups, but on a big 13 fight card with the PPV payouts on DK sometimes you gotta get weird.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
JooSang Yoo | $9500 | +242 | 23%
This is a fade mostly due to the ownership not being as low as I expected him to be considering who is priced similarly, and the fact that he is making his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect that is a big favorite and priced too high. Jeka is a kill or be killed fighter who has 13 finishes in his 14 wins and has been finished in all 4 losses. I would probably prefer that side of the fight at half the ownership and 2800 in salary relief.
Kevin Holland| $8800 | +242 | 27%
The Luque write up covers most of it. I just don’t think Holland takes it nearly as serious as he used to, he has not had an actual good quality win in while, and with his knack for getting finished and into trouble I don’t see how he pays off his salary without a first round KO.
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