We have twelve fights on the slate for UFC Vegas 106, Headlined by Gilbert Burns and the undefeated Michael Morales in one of only two fights on the card that have a ranked fighter competing. This slate is….interesting to say the least, when the Co-Main is Paul Craig against Rodolfo Bellato, there will be some interesting fights to pick and build your lineups from.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 106 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Rodolfo Bellato | $9400 | -550 | 42%
Paul Craig will only be able to win if he pulls off a submission, because he is not winning this fight on the feet. However, his takedown offense is terrible and I think Bellato finds his chin and knocks him out. Round 1 would be preferred to get the 100+ points at his price tag, but I think even in a second round finish we could see multiple knock downs where Craig lays there and tries to get Rodolfo to engage on the ground and is forced to stand back up before getting finished.
Yadier del Valle | $9200| -430| 34%
He landed 125 strikes to go along with 2 takedowns in his contender series win, and yes is a dreaded undefeated prospect making his UFC debut but Matthews is a middling fighter who is 0-2 in the UFC and I think we see a big win here for Yadier. I am hoping Nursulton keeps his ownership somewhat in check, but even at 34% owned this guy has multiple ways to end up being optimal on DK.
Matheus Camilo | $8600 | -225 | 35%
Camilo is a decent lined favorite going against Green who has not fought in two years. He is also moving down a weight class after the layoff, so I am going to side with the 24 year old prospect who throws with intent and power to find Green’s chin and get a finish. Camilo has been bet down to almost even money to finish this fight inside the distance.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Michael Morales | $9700 | -820 | 43%
I think Morales will knock Burns out at some point, but if it is not in the first couple rounds I don’t think we see him being optimal. Burns will try to grapple, but Morales is a good wrestler, much better on the feet, and I think we see him either get a finish in the 4th or 5th round or just out point Burns on the feet and use his wrestling to stuff takedowns from Gilbert.
HyunSung Park | $8500 | -175 | 26%
Park is 2-0 in the UFC with a win by submission and a KO. Hernandez is pretty meh, and if we are picking someone in this fight to get a finish it is definitely Park. At this price point a KO win like his last time out scoring 99 will almost assuredly make him optimal.
Jared Gordon | $8200 | -118 | 30%
Gordon will push the pace here as he averages 5.75 significant strikes per minute and 2 takedowns per fight. Moises is a very good grappler, but we saw Gordon take Paddy to the mat and control a lot of that fight. This fight is favored to go the distance, but if we get 15 minutes where Gordon lands 100 strikes with 2 takedowns and 4-5 minutes of control time that would be enough for DK scoring.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Sodiq Yusuff | $7900 | +120| 25%
Santos got gifted a win by the judges in his last fight, and Yusuff is coming off being demolished by Diego Lopes. Yusuff scored 98 points in a loss in his fight before Lopes, and I think we see him bully Santos here and get back to his normal ways. He averages 5.66 significant strikes per minute, looks for submissions when he gets his opponents on the ground, and is priced where a win with his style will more than pay off. His chin very would could be gone after the barboza fight and Lopes knocking him out, but at his price point it is tough to not take a swing with Sodiq here.
Julian Erosa | $7500 | +157 | 29%
Erosa is a DK scoring machine in his wins, averaging over 100 points in his wins. He averages almost 6.5 significant strikes per minute and almost 2 takedowns per fight. He will keep pushing the pace against Costa and even in a loss we could see him score 50+.
Dustin Stoltzfus| $7200 | +242 | 25%
This fight will come down to if Dustin can get the takedowns to control Ruziboev, or get knocked out trying to find his timing to shoot. This fight should be high scoring for whoever wins, but there are not a lot of dogs with big upside so I am going to side with the wrestling upside of Stoltzfus.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Tecia Pennington | $9300 | -350 | 10%
There is not a chance in hell I would pay 9300 for Pennington in the most likely fight on the entire card to go the distance. She doesn’t even average a takedown per fight, and on average lands 70 strikes per fight. No way she pays off.
Luana Santos | 8400 | -160| 25%
This fight is another instance where I don’t see the favorite paying off her salary, and if anything I would rather play the dog for DFS purposes. Lisboa has not fought since suffering a knee injury that forced her to miss the last 18 months, but regardless there are higher upside plays priced around Santos.
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