Twelve fights are on the slate for UFC Fight Night Des Moines, with title contenders Cory Sandhagen and Davison Figueiredo headlining the card. There’s a few really interesting matchups including the co-main with Bo Nickal vs Reinier de Ridder. We will of course have a handful of lesser known fighters, but lately those seem to bring the best out of everyone and give us entertaining fights. There are not very many underdogs who have a clear path to pulling an upset this week, so it makes it tough to build when you’re not a multi entry player.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Des Moines slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Corey Sandhagan | $9400 | -480 | 49%
Sandman just is better everywhere in this fight. He averages over 5 significant strikes per minute, has shown the ability to take strikers to the ground and win with his grappling, and I think we see him cement his status as a title contender here. Averaging over 100+ DK points in his last 5 wins. He is just the better fighter, bigger fighter, and I think we see him finish Davison here.
Gillian Robertson | $9200| -310 | 28%
Gillian is going to drag Marina to the mat and rack up control time and takedowns and look to finish this inside the distance. She is averaging over 102 DK points in her last 5 wins and most people won’t want to roster an expensive female fighter due to being burned by others in similar spots. I expect a finish in the first two rounds with takedowns and control time and a 110+ score, if she can outscore Jones or Bekoev at cheaper price and lower ownership, that’s how ya take down GPP’s.
Mason Jones| $9500 | -550 | 35%
He is going to maul Stephens I think, but it’s impossible to fit all 3 of the expensive plays in. I have them in this order because I think Sandman and Gillian have an easier path to victory, because Stephens will be relying on a big KO, but Jones is -550 for a reason.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Azamat Bekoev | $9300 | -380 | 33%
Azamat is better basically everywhere this fight can go, but you’re paying a steep price for him to take on a pretty solid prospect in Loder who will have a heavy wrestling approach which can mitigate the offense of his opponents. Bekoev should win and do it with style and DK points, but because of the style of Loder that’s why he isn’t in the top play section.
Montel Jackson | $8700 | -201 | 27%
Montel is a fun fighter to watch, he averages over a takedown per round, has a 6 inch reach advantage and will be looking to take the 0 from Marcos’ undefeated record. Marcos has good takedown defense but he has not fought someone with Jackson’s takedown prowess. He scores big boy DK points in his wins with a few over 120. This will be a really tough fight, but I’ll take the grappling upside when it comes to DK.
Santiago Ponzinibbio | $8200 | -130 | 22%
D-Rod has looked awful lately and I’m going to side with the guy in Ponzinibbio who looked solid against Harris and gets his wins from KO/TKO when he wins. This isn’t a slam dunk play, but gotta go with what DK gives us in salary plays. Rodriguez just seems like he is washed trying to cash in a paycheck, and Santiago doesn’t give off the vibe of letting someone like that steal a win.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Cameron Smotherman | $7800 | +116 | 27%
Averages over 6 significant strikes per minute and Sidey has an abysmal 20% takedown defense. This should be fairly straight forward, press and shoot takedowns and get the win as a slight dog, or have a dumb game plan and lose.
Don’Tale Mayes | $7300 | +210 | 17%
I get it, Mayes is not great. However, neither is Petersen. This is a matchup of Mayes wanting to stand and trade vs Petersen who will look to wrestle. We have seen when Thomas can’t get takedowns he gets knocked out, and with Mayes having a 7 inch reach advantage we will hope he keeps Petersen at distance and pieces him up en route to a KO.
Reinier de Ridder| $7100 | +262 | 23%
Nickal is a monster prospect who looked dreadful against Paul Craig, and RDR is a former champ from his previous organization who has scored over 110 in each of his ufc fights en route to submission wins. In a fight like this, I am going to side with the more experienced fighter who has fought higher level competition.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Thomas Petersen | $9400 | -250 | 22%
He will die if he can’t get Mayes to the ground. We have seen his standup be subpar, coming off a KO loss and now goes up against someone who has 7 inches of reach and knows to watch for takedowns.
Meisha Tate | 8300 | -135 | 25%
She just has not fought in so long it’s hard to get behind paying for her. She has the grappling upside to score well and make this fade call look dumb, but I think ring rust is real and would rather side with Santos.
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