First things first, this is being written by WebGuy Josh, not Price this week. I know the bottom still says Price, but he had some things happening to plan for a family vacation next week, so you are getting me instead. Let’s make the most of it.
We have a massive 13 fight slate, which should be the normal expectation, but it seems like 10 fights is what we have been whittled down to lately. These fights don’t look that great on paper unfortunately, and even under a DFS lens seem to be a bit of a disappointment, but we will do our best to navigate them for the guys out there playing cash and small-field single-entry contests.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Vegas 103 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
JOSIAS MUSASA | $9400 | -900 | 34%
Here we have up and coming prospect Josias Musasa matching up with Carlos Vera. Simply put, Vera’s only prayer here is throwing up a prayer submission attempt. Beyond that Musasa should be able to score well by either using his power to secure a knockout, or his wrestling to get the finish with ground and pound. Either way I would expect a high score from Musasa.
KEVIN VALLEJOS | $9100 | -550 | 44%
Kevin Vallejos is making his official UFC debut after going 1-1 in DWCS appearances. Vallejos seems to be an active and aggressive striker. He went the distance with Jean Silva in the first one, and then knocked his second opponent out in the first round. His opponent, Seung Woo Choi, has only won one of his last five and looks to be a solid candidate for a knockout finish. How early that knockout comes will dictate how useful Vallejos is when it comes to fantasy scoring.
DIYAR NURGOZHAY | $8900 | -455 | 38%
The weight miss from Nurgozhay is a variable that I wasn’t expecting, especially such a large weight miss. He should still be in a good situation to roll to victory here though, and my expectation for him would be to secure a couple takedowns and get a knockout along the way. His opponent, Brendson Ribeiro, who has been knocked out before and doesn’t seem to approach his fights with a large concern for safety.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
DA’MON BLACKSHEAR | $9200 | -400 | 23%
Blackshear has the third lowest projected ownership in the 9K salary range and could be a fantastic pivot from some of the more heavily owned fighters. He is fighting Cody Gibson, who is a very well rounded fighter himself, but he has seen his best days already. Blackshear is on the way up however, and just seems to be more talented in most areas of MMA. The one concern I would have is how Blackshear handles the length of Gibson, but it is a very small concern.
ANDRE LIMA | $9000 | -500 | 14%
Andre Lima is a bit more risky of a pivot. He comes with the lowest ownership in the 9K range, even behind Carli Judice. The reason for that is his low output and previously unimpressive DK scoring. I think we see a deviation from that in this fight however, and I expect him to finish his opponent, Daniel Barez, or at least win a very active decision. Big time risk rostering Lima, but if he pays off you will put yourself in a great position in your tournament.
WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA | $8300 | -200 | 26%
Waldo has historically been somewhat sporadic with DraftKings scoring, scoring anywhere from sub 50 to over 100 in his wins. The reason I like him this time around is his opponent, Ryan Spann. I believe that Ryan is going to create a car crash like he often does and that Waldo has the finishing opportunity here that could make his value some of the best on the slate. Very risky obviously, as you could end up with a smashing 50 point decision win as well. I don’t believe losing is very likely though, as Waldo has a cinder block head that Spann will struggle to damage in my opinion.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
ROMAN DOLIDZE | $8000 | +135 | 31%
There were people who felt that the first fight between these two went Roman’s way. He did land hard from time to time and had Vettori backing up most of the fight. He did not however get his wrestling or grappling going against Marvin and it stayed a striking battle. I expect a similar situation here personally, but to not mention Roman as a live dog on such a weak slate would be unforgivable. Especially with so much buzz around Marvin having shoulder issues still and only fighting for a check – unconfirmed rumors that Angelo heard. My main reservation about Dolidze really having a chance is that this is five rounds and he typically gasses.
SAM HUGHES | $7400 | +175 | 18%
Sam Hughes is Jacob’s ‘Lock of the Week’ on this slate. If she wins this fight there is little doubt that her score would be worthy of optimal. Hughes typically gets some wrestling going when she manages to win, and for her to do so here I would imagine she will need to again. Hughes has amazing cardio and can be around late into the fight when her opponent starts to fade.
YUNEISY DUBEN | $6900 | +275 | 24%
Duben is quite the dog this week. Lots of people enjoying the idea of her knocking out Carli Judice, and I would also be one of those people who enjoy that outcome. How likely it is remains a different story. Duben is largely untested, having only fought a few people with actual experience, but she does seem to have the power to make a difference in the women’s division. If she gets a win, no matter how, she would likely be optimal at this salary. Hell, she might be optimal just surviving in a loss.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
CARLI JUDICE | $9300 | -325 | 22%
As stated in the dog section, Judice’s opponent is the one getting the love in this contest. If you believe that Judice can finish Duben then please ignore this advice and roll the dice. Personally I don’t see a finish coming from the Judice side, and would more expect a three round decision win if the fight goes Judice’s way. Not going to score enough at this salary, especially with some of the killers in the salary range.
STEPHANIE LUCIANO | $8800 | -205 | 12%
This is probably the easiest fade on the slate. Luciano is only expected to pull about 12% ownership, which is a very small amount for someone with an $8800 salary. Couple that with Sam Hughes being very durable, and I just don’t see where Luciano ends up optimal in any world.
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