We lost two fights leading into the weigh-ins, so we are down to 10 fights total which is not nearly as fun for DFS purposes, but nevertheless we will carry on and pick our spots. We have some pretty live dogs, a few KO specialists and some wrestlers mixed in. I am going to be a little more out there on my stances this week as the mid range kind of stinks and we lost 4 fighters from the player pool.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Vegas 103 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Chepe Mariscal | $9400 | -410 |48%
He is undefeated in the UFC, won 5 fights in a row, and is averaging 109 points per fight in the UFC. He has 3 decision wins where we scored 138, 85 and 108. He averages over a takedown per round in the UFC, lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute, and is fighting someone who is seemingly a worse version of himself who doesn’t have the output on the feet. Ramos gets submitted a decent amount in his losses, so Chepe will undoubtedly look to mix in some submission attempts when he shoots his takedowns, and he is coming off a fight where he had 5 takedowns, 2 reversals, and 8.5 minutes of control time. That is how you score 138 points in a 3 round decision win, so the floor is there with his grappling.
Mario Pinto | $9300 | -515 | 47%
Austen Lane stinks. The only reason he got a win last time out is because Despaigne may be the worst heavyweight ever at getting off the mat when someone takes you down. Lane has gotten KO’d a handful of times, and Pinto is a grown ass man who should touch Austen’s chin and sleep him.
Lucas Almeida | $7600 | +180 | 24%
This fight should be awesome. Silva has an output of 8 significant strikes per minute, and somehow gets it 9 times per minute. Almeida has 14 finishes in his 15 wins, so when he pulls the upset off he should score very well for being a dog and getting a finish inside the distance.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Estaban Ribovics| $9100 | -255 | 30%
This fight should be awesome, as Ribovics has an output of 7.5 significant strikes per minute, and Haqparast is at 6.15 per minute. Esteban has looked awesome his last few fights, and is coming off winning DK scores of 92, 127, and 92. On this card we need to get guys to exceed value and I think we see a Ribovics finish here to go 10x.
Ramazan Temirov| $8400 | +112 | 24%
So he is now the underdog, so normally we see this situation pan out where the mid priced guy who is a dog goes low owned. Temirov will be swinging for the fences and trying to murder Charles Johnson, and he will have to be a little reckless due to the 7 inch reach disadvantage. This is a great GPP play as I think he is going to be lower owned and has KO upside.
Hyder Amil | $7300 | +175 | 35%
Gomis is the better fighter, but give me the underdog with massive KO upside who’s output is 6.3 significant strikes per minute. They are even on takedown attempts on average for their fights, but Amil attempts almost 4X the submission that Gomis has tried, so give me the dog with more output, KO power, and who will at least attempt submissions.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Andrea Lee | $7500 | +180 | 21%
This fight is heavily favored to go to decision, Lee has lost a ton of fights lately, and Aldrich is the younger of the two. I think we see Lee finally get on the winning side of things due to her losses being against good opponents, and Aldrich just kind of stinks. Lee will shoot more takedowns, throws almost 1 more significant strike per minute also.
Sam Patterson | $7000 | +255 | 19%
So, Patterson got brutally KO’d as a big favorite in is debut, but has followed that up with back to back 1st round submission wins. We all know Barlow has fucking hammers for fists, but Sam should realize that also and look to get this to the mat. If Barlow can’t get an early KO he won’t make the optimal, and I think sam avoids that so give me the dog at huge savings that nobody likes in a condensed 10 fight card.
Asu Almabayev | $7200 | +185 | 46%
He is not going to stand and trade with Kape, taking this fight on short notice I do worry about the gas tank, however the grappling upside is so high here with it being a possible 5 rounds fight. He averages almost 2 takedowns per round, and if you get that over a 5 round fight that could add up to huge points- even in a loss.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Manel Kape | $9000 | -250 | 37%
I think this fight we see a similar approach, hopefully not as bad, as the Mokaev game plan due to the wrestling upsides of Asu. He won’t hit optimal unless he gets a first round KO. Too expensive to get there in my opinion.
Williams Gomis| $8800 | -205 | 18%
He is the better fighter overall here, hence the price tag and being a -205 favorite, but his output is porous and at his price point it seems near impossible for his style to become optimal. Maybe in the big GPP field, but I just don't see how he pays off that salary.
GET MORE DFS COVERAGE WITH ADP!
If you guys enjoyed my deep dive into the (event name) DFS slate you would probably also enjoy the content that I provide for other sports on my website www.adpdfs.com. We have an entire team of DFS professionals that cover most major sports and do so from a data driven perspective that has us enjoying green screens week in and week out. Hope to see you over there!
