We got ourselves a couple late additions to get us to 12 fights for this slate, which is huge for DFS purposes because only 10 makes it very tough. Like clockwork another card with a couple guys making their debut, and a handful of dogs who look live. With only one crazy big favorite, it looks to be a fun card with some interesting fights. We have some heavy hitters mixed in with some big time wrestlers so naturally it comes down to creating the right combo of which route gets us the most DK points.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Seattle slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Mansur Abdul-Malik | $9700 | -1200 |50%
Heavy handed Mansur getting served up a guy who wants to grapple, so the key here is keeping distance and having the normal output of 6.6 significant strikes per minute and finding the KO. At his price point we need 100+, so if he doesn’t finish in the first it may be tough to get the points unless he just lands hundreds of significant strikes and a couple knockdowns. View this like Quinlan last card where he’s a huge favorite and should win 1st round.
Anthony Hernandez | $9000 | -325 | 45%
I touched on him during the YouTube video on Picks Nation ch. He is a relentless dog who is going to smother Allen with forward pressure, landing nearly 5 significant strikes per minute and over 2 takedowns per round. He is a DFS gold mine with his style and I think we see him wear Allen out and finish him late in the fight and score 115+.
Rob Font | $7600 | +140 | 24%
We have seen time and time again this year, undefeated up and comer prospects getting their 0 taken by a savvy vet. They have similar output on the feet with Font averaging 5.4 signicrant strikes per minute, and the vet will have a 3 inch each advantage and in an ugly brawl should get the better of the talented Matsumoto and get us enough points to be optimal as a dog.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Nursulton Ruziboev| $9200 | -275 | 30%
He is a monster at 6’5, solid standup and has won 2 of his 3 ufc fights. McConico will look to wrestle and get him down, but with the size difference I think Nursulton can pick him apart and then look for a finish later in the fight as Eric wears down
Alonzo Menifield| $8700 | -240 | 33%
This fight is kind of scary because it depends which Alonzo we get facing the undefeated prospect in Walker. He has big KO power and I can see him being a bit more calculated in his style and finding a finish in round 2 once Walker gets lost in the moment.
Ibo Aslan | $8500 | -170 | 38%
This fight is going to be fun, Cutebala will push the pace and Aslan will be looking for a big KO finish. Aslan is averaging a wild 8.3 significant strikes per minute while Ion will be looking to grapple and get to his 4+ takedowns per fight. Battle of the wills here on how it plays out, and I think we see Ibo chin Cutelaba for a big KO win.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Austin Vanderford | $7800 | +102 | 25%
This is going to be another clash of styles as Austin will look to get this fight to the mat as he has a big grappling advantage. In a toss up fight where it’s short notice, I’m going to side with the wrestler who is the underdog that will look for multiple takedowns and control time.
Henry Cejudo | $7300 | +225 | 35%
Give me the old dog working over the young gun here with Cejudo controlling the fight with his grappling and takedowns. He should follow the Yan playbook and I think Cejudo will look for a statement saying he’s back after going against 2 of the absolute best in the division in his return. 5 rounds of wrestling, sign me up.
Ricky Simon | $7100 | +211 | 30%
This is once again where my bias for wrestlers kicks in. Basharat is favored for a reason, but Simon has lost to really good fighters and still gotten his takedowns. The first round will probably dictate how this goes, but if Ricky can land a couple takedowns and control the fight and force Javid to have to take chances, I like him for a 29-28 decision win with a bunch of takedowns and control.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Modestas Bukauskas | $9300 | -270 | 17%
He very well may win as a decent favorite, but Cerqueira is not going to get obliterated out the gate again in my opinion and that makes it tough to pay up for someone who’s going to make than likely win by decision he gets his hand raised. I side more on Cerqueira sneaking out a win than I do Modestas being optimal.
Javid Basharat| $9100 | -251 | 11%
Double dipping here as I write up Simon as live dog, but even in a decision win I don’t see Basharat scoring well enough to warrant being in your DFS lineup. Makes 0 sense to pay for him when fluffy is 100 less or Nursulton is 100 more.
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