We almost got ourselves a 13th fight but we ended up losing the Gordon/Ruzibaev fight, so we are still at 12 for the slate. This slate has so many heavy favorites at this point so DFS contests are surely going to be won this week with a little bit of luck avoiding the land mines and being on the right dogs.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 102 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Jose Delgado | $9000 | -425 | 44%
He has 8 wins, 4 knockouts and 4 submissions. He is making his debut, so we are trying to go back to back after Quinlan got 126 in his debut as a highly priced debutant. He looked great in his DWCS fight, has small reach advantage, and Matthews has not looked good in his DWCS fights or getting knocked out in the 3rd round his last time out. Would expect we get a finish here in the first 2 rounds.
Gregory Rodrigues | $8600 | -230 | 55%
This pick of Robocop is hoping he does not gas out and wilt away if this reaches the later rounds. He showed the ability to change his gameplan to attack his opponents weakness last iht out against Duncan, so let’s assume he takes another grapple heavy approach here and rack up control time and use his elite BJJ to get a submission win.
Valter Walker | $8700 | -260 | 32%
Walker should employ a heavy wrestling game plan and go for takedowns and control time while looking to get a submission win over Mayes. He is not a great striker, but as least has the sense to wrestle and try to finish fights that way. He won with a heel hook last fight and score 110+, so we would think even in a decision win he gets 4-5 takedowns and around 10 minutes of control time.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Edmen Shahbayzan | $9200 | -400 | 37%
His losses are to some of the better middleweights in the world currently, but we are going to need a finish here to pay off the salary as he is mainly a striker and Budka’s background is wrestling. His DK score average for his wins are almost 120 fantasy points per win, so the upside with the KO is there.
Elijah Smith | $9100 | -142 | 17%
This is mostly a play on ownership coupled with his potential. He shot 11 takedowns in his DWCS fight, securing 5 of them en route to a decision win. His striking is not great, he is making his debut, and morales is 34 and been competing in the UFC off and on for years. However, if the 9k range busts and Smith wrestles his way to a win at lower ownership than everyone else this would give you a shot at taking down a GPP.
Ketlen Souza | $8000 | -115 | 20%
Hill has not beaten anyone good in a few years, so I will side with the slightly cheaper fighter even if this is a fight favored to go the distance. She has the KO upside, although Hill as never been knocked out in her UFC career. They have very similar metrics, so I am siding with the cheaper, 10 years younger side of the fight.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Nazim Sadykhov | $7800 | +190 | 20%
He is coming into this fight being 2-0-1, and while not scoring well he has shown the ability to grit out wins. He averages just under 2 takedowns per fight, 5 significant strikes per minute, and is one of the few dogs who look live this week.
Andre Petroski | $7400 | +235 | 19%
This fight looks like it will be a grapple heavy approach from both sides, as Vieira gets his wins by submission and Petroski is primarily a wrestler. They both average 4 takedowns per right, and with it being so close on the metrics I am going to pick the dog for the savings because even in a decision win a wrestler heavy approach at 7400 will pay off.
Khaos Williams | $7300 | +170 | 27%
Khaos will be one of the more popular dogs here, but for good reason. He has the power, averages almost 6 significant strikes per minute, does not get taken down, and has a 5 inch reach advantage. This checks a lot of boxes for an underdog who with a KO win would more than 10x his salary for us.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Jacqueline Cavalvanti | $9500 | -730 | 14%
I just cannot pay for the top priced fighter on the slate for a woman who does not grapple and has not finished anyone at this level. She averages 70 points in her DK fights which does not come close to paying off her salary. The other fighters in the 9k range offer more upside for finishes and bigger scores.
Jared Cannonier | $7600 | +295 | 30%
I am fading him more for the reason I expect Rodrigues to win, control the fight with grappling, and not let Cannonier tee off on the feet. He is 41, and has been in some wars, so someone who will be 30% owned or more, I am comfortable going on a limb and fading him completely.
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