Welcome to the first PPV of the year, we have had a major adjustment after the challenger in the main event had to pull out, so Moicano moves up to fight Islam and Beneil heads home with a pay day. We moved from 14 fights to 13, but for the most part there’s still very good fights. We just lost out on 2 awesome matchups on the main card. There are some massive favorites, multiple guys who are -1000 or more, and not many underdogs are being given a decent shot at winning so this could be a very tough slate for DFS.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 311 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Islam Makhachev | $9400 | -1200 | 55%
I had 0 interest in paying up for Islam when he was scheduled to fight Arman. However, I think he is going to steamroll Moicano who is not at the same level and has pulled a Sean Strickland type rise to being in the right place at the right time to get this shot. Moicano has beaten mediocre Drew Dober, arguably should have lost to Turner who was an idiot at UFC 300 and tried to get the walk off KO for 300k bonus instead of finishing Moicano who was stunned on the ground, and beat St Dennis who has not looked good in his last 2 fights. Islam is going to take Moicano down, and apply non stop pressure on him and should get the finish inside the distance.
Jailton Almeida | $9500 | -485 | 36%
Almeida is a freaking monster for being an undersized heavyweight. He averages almost 7 takedowns per 15 minutes, took Blaydes down 9 times in their fight who is arguably the best wrestler at heavyweight, and will take spivac down quick and early and look to choke him out for yet another submission win.
Jamahal Hill | $8200 | -130 | 29%
This one kind of hurts my soul a little as I love Jiri so much, but I think Hill has that crazy power to knock Jiri out who tends to be very reckless in his fights. I cannot remember the last Jiri fight where he wasn’t hurt at least once, and Hill has crazy output at over 7 significant strikes per minute, 73% takedown defense so Jiri probably will not be shooting as it is since he averages less than 1 takedown per fight. Hill sends Jiri to the shadow world and then down to 185 where he should be competing.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Bernardo Sopaj | $9300 | -265 | 14%
He was winning his fight in his debut until he completely gassed and got caught with the knockout of the year by a flying knee. Averages a takedown per round, 3+ sig strikes per minute and has finished 10 of his 11 wins. Turcios is getting some steam as a cheap dog, which keeps Sopaj’s ownership down and makes him a good GPP play if he can get a finish due to him being priced between Umar and Islam.
Bogdan Guskov | $9100 | -395 | 29%
This fight is a last minute fill in as Walker withdrew who would have been knocked out by Guskov anyways, and now we get Elekana making his debut. The actual books have Guskov as a big favorite, while UFC.com has Elekana as a favorite so hopefully this will keep Bogdan’s ownership in check somewhat. He has a 100% finish rate in his last 16 fights and is coming off b2b knockouts in the UFC. Him catching Spann is meaningful as Superman is much tougher competition than what Elekana has fought, so I am counting on the KO power and hoping his output is a little higher than the 3.8 sig strikes per minute he currently is averaging through 3 UFC fights.
Grant Dawson | $9000 | -245 | 24%
He is averaging 102 points when he gets a win in the UFC, 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes so he will look to wrestle and control the fight since Ferreira has only a 60% takedown defense and looked like shit at the weigh-ins. Dawson finishes his fights at an 82% clip so look for some wrestling with him finding a submission to end it after wearing down Ferreira.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Reiner De Ridder | $7900 | -122 | 30%
He opened as the dog and was priced such on DK, however he has taken money over the last few days and is now a slight odds favorite, but his DK pricing is still that of an underdog. He will look to take Holland down as he is averaging over 6 takedowns per fight and look to get another submission win. If he stands and trades he will lose, and Holland even told RDR in the presser to wait to shoot for a takedown for at least 3 minutes so he has a chance to knock him out.
Ailin Perez | $7600 | +205 | 22%
She comes in as a decent dog here, but the wrestling upside at her price point is worth the risk. 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, so look for shots, control time and her to get up and twerk after the victory. She has scored 109, 109, 88 and 138 in her 4 wins, so when she wins she puts up big numbers and at this price point there is a great chance she is optimal with a win.
Merab Dvalishvili | $7000 | +205 | 44%
The Machine fights at an unbelievable pace averaging 6 takedowns per 15 min and almost 4.5 significant strikes per minute. This is obviously a huge test as Umar will bring elite wrestling to the table, but we saw Merab shoot 40+ times against Yan and I expect him to constantly be going after Umar to mitigate his offensive wrestling and have Umar backpedaling. Even in a loss if it goes to decision Merab could score 50+.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Payton Talbott | $9900 | -1050 | 20.06%
I love this kid, but 9900 is insane on this card without jamming the cheap dogs who will struggle to win. Arman pulling out should lower Talbott’s ownership overall. Anything in the 90’s will not be optimal for his price point.
Rinya Nakamura | $9600 | -625 | 12.61%
He is coming off back to back decision wins where he didn’t break 90 points, with a card that’s full of wrestlers, at his price point we would need 110+ and it’s tough to get there because not many dogs are live to fit him when there’s other options in the 9K with better finishing odds.
GET MORE DFS COVERAGE WITH ADP!
If you guys enjoyed my deep dive into the (event name) DFS slate you would probably also enjoy the content that I provide for other sports on my website www.adpdfs.com. We have an entire team of DFS professionals that cover most major sports and do so from a data driven perspective that has us enjoying green screens week in and week out. Hope to see you over there!
