Have been on a good streak so hoping to keep it going this week.

NORBERT NOVENYI JR. (10-1) vs. THEO HAIG (7-1) – Middleweight

NORBERT NOVENYI JR. 10-1 (4 KO, 5 SUB, 1 DEC)

Norbert Jr. is the son of 1980 Olympic gold medalist in wrestling Norbert Novenyi. His style is very interesting as he actually strikes a lot like Michael Venom Page but with a lot more output and power. Ironically, if MVP fought like Norbert he would still be in the UFC. I am quite confident he is training partners with MVP as he regularly features on videos with him and KSI of all people on his instagram. He has fought in amateur MMA since he was 16 years old and was built up by Bellator where he competed 7 times for them, going 6-1 in the promotion. He had some good performances in Bellator but did show some defensive lapses against Dalton Rosta and has been dropped early in his career too. I actually consider him to be a better wrestler/grappler than striker even if he himself probably considers himself to be a striker. He mixes in an odd striking style based around MVP’s karate with solid wrestling and grappling. At middleweight he is very fast and athletic. He doesn’t seem to have a great deal of one punch KO power but he does hit hard enough put his opponents down. He has a solid submission arsenal as well so he should be able to get out of bad positions if Haig puts him there.

THEO HAIG 7-1 (7 SUB)

Haig is back after last season’s disaster where he got TKOed in 36 seconds. He shot in on a takedown and then just got hammer fisted until the referee stopped the fight. Haig has a wrestling base and he has translated this well to MMA by finding 7 submissions – 5 in the first round. My biggest issue with him is that if he can’t get the take down he looks totally lost. I picked Cezary last year because of this and it seems like I need to fade Haig again. Haig has has one LFA fight since his last DWCS fight and he did not look very good at all. His opponent hurt him on the feet many times and he showed zero head movement at all. I actually got some PTSD watching that fight as he reminded me of Lawrence Lui so much I nearly cried remembering Lui’s UFC debut. He mostly throws straight punches and then when he has no idea what to do he just throws a kick. My main take away from Haig’s loss last year was that he just did not have enough experience yet to move up to the next level. I think his last fight proved me right again. When Haig does get a take down he is a very solid grappler though. His BJJ is good for this weight class where grapplers aren’t super common and when he gets the back he will finish a rear naked choke more often than not.

PREDICTION

I believe this is another case of Theo Haig being brought into Contender Series too early. He was inexperienced going into his DWCS fight last year and now he has only fought once since, in a fight he did not look good in. He isn’t a young prospect either as he is 30, so it really is now or never for him. Norbert Novenyi Jr. did lose to a similar fighter in Dalton Rosta, but Rosta is a better striker than Haig. Rosta also is arguably not a natural fighter either so he was always going to have a bit of an advantage. I have seen Norbert did deep so if he needs to his cardio will hold up. To beat Norbert I think it is going to take a good striker as his defense is not great. He does fight like MVP but he doesn’t have the same level of counter striking or defense, he more so just uses the MVP style to throw overhands. I am picking Norbert to finish Haig as I believe Norbert’s wrestling is actually quite good too and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet long enough to knock out Haig. The only problem is determining how seriously Norbert is about MMA, if he is making videos with KSI maybe he makes good money online? I am not sure as I don’t watch his videos.

Pick: Norbert Novenyi Jr. – medium-high confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO in round 1.

JADEN ORTEGA (6-0) vs. ALVI DASUYEV (9-0) – Welterweight

JADEN ORTEGA 6-0 (5 KO, 1 DEC)

Ortega is interesting. He must have some sort of karate background as he fights with a very low volume, hands somewhat low style. He is very light in his feet and is spending a lot of time not doing much. But when he picks his shots he lands well and has great kicks. I like this kicks to the body a lot of he has worn down many opponents with these as well as his leg kicks. He also uses these low kicks to keep his opponents guessing before throwing a kick up high. When his opponents let him feel comfortable he doesn’t do a lot, he mostly feints and bounces around on the outside. He does also stand in close striking range for periods without throwing strikes too which I found odd until I saw how good his counter striking can be. He did have one very fun fight against Jimmie Pace Jr. which went the distance. In that fight Jimmie put a pace on him by throwing strikes and wrestling. He showed good take down defense there which I liked to see as I think Ortega may be a small welterweight. It is also hard to tell with these guys though and I don’t have a great track record of guessing fighters heights. He didn’t look small against Jimmie Pace Jr., but he did look small in his most recent fight against Ricardo Chavez. Overall, he is a pretty low volume kickboxer who likes to stay at range and counter strike, with most of his advantages coming from his kicks to the legs and the body.

ALVI DASUYEV 9-0 (6 KO, 3 SUB)

Before turning pro, Dasuyev had a pretty high level amateur career where he fought many fighters who are now established pros. Qosim Sardarov, Patrick Habirora, and Jordan Zebo are all stand out names on his amateur record. As a pro he hasn’t fought the best competition himself but his win over Tyrone Pfeifer has aged well. I thought Ortega could be a small welterweight but Dasuyev may be even smaller. I don’t think he is 6’1″ either. Dasuyev is a super aggressive – he’s like the opposite to Ortega. He will crash the pocket with hooks and throw down with his opponents. He usually gets the better of these exchanges but he does leave his chin up in the air to be hit. His takedown defense is pretty average but he may have some level of judo background as I have seen him hit some pretty cool judo throws when his opponents shoot in on him. When it comes to his offensive grappling there isn’t much to see. Interestlingly he did shoot a take down in his most recent fight but it almost looked like he just did this because slipped over and landed in a single leg attempt. His opponent was clueless on the ground so he did get a quick submission there. I watched a handful of his amateur fights and I probably shouldn’t have. I usually don’t like to refer to amateur fights when determining a result at this level but in those he fought the same way as he does now. Super aggressive with hooks with even worse defense than he has now. So at least his defense is getting better.

PREDICTION

This is very good matchmaking by the UFC in my opinion. On one hand, we have a low volume but technical counter striker in Jaden Ortega. On the other hand, we have a super aggressive, hook throwing merchant in Dasuyev. We have seen Ortega drawn into a war before against Jimmie Pace Jr. and he did look good, but Dasuyev is going to be a real threat with his power. I don’t expect to see much grappling from either guy here so we are going to be in for a fun striking fight. As long as Dasuyev isn’t getting tagged with counters he should be able to win the minutes here. He has shown that he can get pressured and backed up as he fought a lot of the fight against Prikaza on the back foot but he didn’t gas out and was hurting Prikaza in round 3. Ortega is a legit fighter himself but he has shown to be low volume to me and prefers clean fights. Dasuyev is a wild man who thrives in dirty brawls and has always got the better of his opponents in them.

Pick: Alvi Dasuyev – low confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3. Dasuyev will come out on fire like Luis Hernandez, but Ortega is pretty defensively sound which is why I think this may go into rounds 2 or 3.

PARIS MORAN (14-3) vs. MARCOS DEGLI (14-3) – Flyweight

PARIS MORAN 14-3 (4 KO, 2 SUB, 8 DEC)

This fight sucks as I want both guys in the UFC. Paris Moran was promised this DWCS shot after he beat Roybert Echeverria which was pretty random as that wasn’t a good performance from him. Moran is not the most exciting fighter to watch but he has fought against and beaten some very good fighters. He holds wins over a few standout regional names like Echeverria himself, Shameek Harvey, and former Bellator/ONE fighter Anthony Do. He has losses to Alden Coria and Josh Van, even though the Coria loss was overturned to a NC. Moran is a wrestler and his biggest problem as to why he hasn’t been picked up yet is probably his lack of finishes. Moran is big for the weight class and if you watch his fight vs. Josh Van you can see that he can deal well with guys who have good wrestling defense – in fact, it was largely due to Moran vs. Van that I doubted Van’s take down defense as he was coming up. However, Moran’s cardio is pretty bad. He gassed out in round 2 and got KOed by Van. He has a 5 round decision loss which he got dropped in too. So at flyweight his chin is concerning and he also doesn’t throw a lot of volume on the feet to set up his take down entries either. Overall, he is a very good fighter who deserves to be in the UFC but at this point in his career it actually may be too late as he has suffered two KO losses (including Coria) and has been hurt on the feet by much worse strikers than Degli.

MARCOS DEGLI 14-3 (9 KO, 4 SUB, 1 DEC)

Degli seems to be an acquired taste as some people are very, very high on him. Despite this he also has his doubters. I am not a Degli doubter and I believe he is the real deal. 9 KO wins at flyweight alone speaks for his striking ability. I said that Moran has very legitimate regional wins and you can say the same about Degli. His win over Hugo Paiva continues to age well (Paiva could also be in the UFC), and he has defended the flyweight title multiple times for the LFA. Degli is a massive flyweight just like Moran, but instead of using his size to wrestle, he uses it to land heavy. One thing that I love about Degli’s game is his technique. At flyweight you need to be fast and technical. I would argue he isn’t the fastest flyweight out there but his technique and power sure make up for it. His counter striking is legit and he places shots very well to the head and to the body. He has some level of wrestling game but we don’t really see this in his recent fights. I haven’t seen him fight against a wrestler as competent as Moran yet but he should be able to defend the initial shots well enough. If not, I have seen him time knees well against wrestling opponents.

PREDICTION

I am expecting Degli to look very good here. This is not a Paris Moran fade at all as I think Moran is also a UFC flyweight. But stylistically this is a bad match up for him. Moran is not a comfortable striker with a questionable gas tank. Degli is a very good striker with some real power in both hands. On top of that, Degli also rips the body very well so that gas tank of Moran could be getting worn down on the feet too. If Degli wins, this could be a quick night in the office. It would be a shame for Moran as he is a legitimately good fighter but Degli has a lot more momentum than him coming in here. Unless Degli’s take down defense is a lot worse than I think it is, this should be a fight where Degli builds some hype before entering the UFC.

Pick: Marcos Degli – Medium-high confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO in round 1. If Moran has early wrestling success, I could see a round 2/3 KO/TKO instead for Degli.

PIERO GUAYLUPO (11-0) vs. CALLUM CONNOR (8-0) – Lightweight

PIERO GUAYLUPO 11-0 (10 KO, 1 DEC)

I am scared. Piero Guaylupo is a walking red flag but I also think there is a chance he is quite good. He has a nice record but he has built this up against abysmal competition and has only been a pro MMA fighter for 3 years. That being said, he is only 21 years old so will be improving quickly. He is mostly a boxer and doesn’t seem to offer much else than that. He does have leg kicks in his game but I didn’t see him throwing many leg kicks. He has 10 KO wins but he also doesn’t seem to have a great deal of power in his hands either as a lot of these finishes come from his working his opponents and breaking them with body shots or constant volume. He did get backed up a bit in his most recent fight against Maicon Miller but he showed decent enough defense in that fight. Miller gassed himself out shooting bad take downs which Guaylupo defended well. Miller was also throwing some heat but Guaylupo also defended these shots with surpisingly good movement. He is listed at 5’9″ so he will be on the smaller side on lightweight but his skillset of pressure boxing doesn’t require him to be the biggest fighter in the division. The red flags come from me only being able to find half of his fights. I could not find the 300 Sparta fights anywhere even though I found other events by 300 Sparta. The level of competition he has fought was also quite bad even though Maicon Miller did seem competent. Nonetheless, this will be a big step up in competition for someone who has been crushing cans.

CALLUM CONNOR 8-0 (5 KO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC)

Speaking of crushing cans, Callum Connor has been doing the same. This guy is also a walking red flag – The Chris Stringer fight is terrifying. Connor is a kickboxer who fights a little bit like Jaden Ortega. He is a very low volume, only throws one strike at a time. Unlike Ortega though he will happily fight on the back foot and get pressured. He literally just fights from the back foot and throws kicks and straight punches. The Chris Springer fight is concerning as Stringer has been fighting MMA since 2003 – So he is probably in his mid forties now. That fight just looked like a sparring match but Stringer had far too much success with his boxing. A 40+ year old made Connor look slow. Also, when Stringer gets hit he does the Will Currie classic. Put the gloves to the head and hope the striking goes away. Upon watching other fights that may actually be a fixed fight as Connor fights with a lot more urgency in his other fights but the same problems persist. He doesn’t like pressure and he isn’t very fast. His punches are decent as he mostly throws straight punches which you like to see from a tall fighter. He has good take down defense but that won’t be tested here.

PREDICTION

I highly doubt we will see any grappling here so I will pick this based on a purely striking fight. This really is a boxer vs. kickboxer match up. Piero Guaylupo is going to pressure and throw high volume boxing against Connor whereas Connor is going to try dance around the outside and win the fight by throwing kicks. Connor does have very good kicks and he can kick to all three levels but I am not convinced that he has a great deal of power in these. Connor will do a lot of things that Guaylupo has never seen though. He can switch stances and throw kicks from both stances. Best case scenario this results in Guaylupo getting frozen and confused and eventually slowing down to these. However I am going to pick Guaylupo. I actually don’t think Guaylupo is the better fighter of these two but the optics will favour him heavily, especially if this goes the distance. Connor gets pressured very easily and Guaylupo will pressure him. On top of that, when Connor gets hit he just puts his hands up and waits for his opponents to stop throwing back. This is how Will Currie defends strikes and it does not look good, nor does it work. I am not confident in this as I don’t think either of these guys are great but stylistically this feels like a better fight for Guaylupo than it does for Connor. Best case for Guaylupo is that Connor just backs up with his hands high and he manages to sneak something big through. But I think this probably goes the distance.

Pick: Piero Guaylupo – Low confidence. Most likley method: Decision for either fighter, leaning Guaylupo. If someone were to win by KO/TKO it would probably be Guaylupo.

DAMIAN PIWOWARCZYK (11-4) vs. EMILIO QUISSIA (8-0) – Light Heavyweight

DAMIAN PIWOWARCZYK 11-4 (6 KO, 4 SUB, 1 DEC)

Damian has some experience against good competition in KSW which is why his record is not as flashy as a lot of the other guys. He was signed by KSW early into his career and went 8-4 in the promotion, ending his stint with them on a 3 fight win streak and as the number 2 ranked light heavyweight in the promotion. He is listed at 6’6″ and he may actually be this tall as he towers over his opponents. Early into my tape I am noting that he does not look good on the backfoot. Zajac for example actually hurt him a couple times in round 1 as he backed up too much. He also got hurt pretty bad at the end of the round too as he lazily exited the clinch and got caught bad. Good to know that he has a pretty chin though. He has been knocked out before but this was a quick 5 second KO loss where he got caught clean with an overhand from a lazy kick. Offensively, he has good straight punches though and a solid jab. He also threatens his guillotine quite often, even from standing positions as it was the guillotine threat that opened up his opportunities to land on Zajac. Early in his career he was grappling a bit and pulled off some submission wins so I wonder if he is like Iwo Baraniewski in a way where he has a judo base but doesn’t use it much anymore. In a way he is a pretty hilarious fighter as he loves to defend punches with his face but he hits hard and has good threats wherever the fight goes. A lot of Damian’s opponents have tried to clinch against him. The shorter opponents he threatens his guillotine but he usually can escape these positions pretty well. He has been a mainstay of KSW for a while and has been in some wars in the promotion. It seems like he may be in his fighting prime now though as he is a great win streak.

EMILIO QUISSIA 8-0 (5 KO, 3 DEC)

Emilio has two fights for OKTAGON which is another European promotion I rate highly. However in OKTAGON they didn’t test him too much with great opponents. In his most recent fight his opponents knee blew out from a leg kick and Stzelczyk was an iminari roll, guard pulling merchant who got TKOed. So I didn’t learn much from them. In his decision win over Juscelino Ferreira he showed that he is a very athletic fighter for this weight class. He is a very fast striker who has good kicks too. His problem is that in that fight he showed no take down defense. He is very loose and comfortable striking with a heavy kicking game which you don’t see much from guys at this size. A problem that I have with him is that I don’t rate his defense. His chin seems to be pretty high in the air and he is barely evading big shots with his head movement which is just him simply moving his head back. I am not super convinced he has a great deal of power even if he fast and athletic.

PREDICTION

This really is a tale of two careers. On one hand, Damian has been battle tested for his whole career and put up against tough competition in KSW. On the other hand, Quissia has a clean, undefeated record and hasn’t struggled all too much. There is a major hole in Quissia’s game and that is his very poor take down defense but I am not sure if Damian is the type of fighter to try exploit this. This could end up being a bit of a war as both guys are primary strikers. Quissia will certainly be faster but Damian has a very significant power advantage in this fight. Damian will also be a lot bigger. He is 6’6″ and Quissia is 6’4″ (that’s their listed heights anyway) but Damian looks to have more muscle and size to him as well. Given the submission threats, Damian may also have more ways to win. This was an interesting fight to investigate given the two different careers but ultimately Damian’s experience and power should carry him to a win here. Quissia is a good fighter but I am not sold on him just yet.

Pick: Damian Piwowarczyk – Medium confidence. Most likley method: KO/TKO in round 1. He has a few sneaky submissions but ultimately his power should result in a KO.