It is finally time for another fight week! Unfortunately for the UFC Orlando event, our guy Frank is a bit under the weather, so he will not be able to give us his fight picks and bets this week. So here I am filling in for him. I will not be breaking down the whole card however, because I am just not as committed as Frank.
What I will be doing is attempting a bit of Women’s MMA whispering as there are three WMMA fights on the UFC Orlando card. I will be giving you my predictions on how those fights play out, and then mentioning any bets that I think might have some merit. In the interest of full disclosure however it is important to note that I do not bet on sports personally. So be sure to know ahead of time that I will not be making a single bet that I mention in this article. Also be aware that I am not directing you to either, but rather simply mentioning that they might have some merit. So let’s get into it;
UFC ORLANDO INFORMATION
This week’s event is a fight night event dubbed “UFC Orlando” and is taking place in (checks notes) Orlando, Florida at the Amway Center. The event is scheduled for Saturday, December 3rd with a main event of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson set to match up against Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland.
You can watch UFC Orlando on ESPN and ESPN+. Personally I watch through the Hulu app since it is connected to ESPN+ with the Disney bundle.
The prelims will start at 7pm eastern and have a featured bout of Nico Price versus Phillip Rowe. A few other notable fights on the undercard include Francis Marshall making his UFC debut against Marcelo Rojo, and Michael Johnson versus Marc Diakiese.
Directly following the prelims will be the main card, starting at 10pm eastern time. As stated above the main card features Stephen Thompson versus Kevin Holland. We will also see absolute bangers like Roman Dolidze versus Jack Hermansson and Tai Tuivasa versus Sergei Pavlovich.
UFC Orlando is one of the best fight night cards of the year, rivaling some of the pay per view events that have been put on in 2022. You won’t want to miss it.
WOMEN’S MMA WHISPERING
If you follow mixed martial arts heavily there is little doubt you have heard the statement “Don’t bet on women’s MMA” numerous times. This statement became a thing because UFC bettors believe that anything can happen in women’s MMA fights, and some believe that you cannot rely on female fighters to implement their game plan effectively (don’t shoot the messenger). So what I will be attempting to do in this article is align my chakras with those of the female warriors taking part in combat at UFC Orlando and provide you with a solid idea on how each WMMA fight will go. I will also do my best to identify any bets worth looking at for these contests so that you can evaluate them and make an informed decision. Let’s go WMMA Whispering!
YAZMIN JAUREGUI vs. ISTELA NUNES
This is one of the fights on this card that I am most looking forward to. From the very first time I taped Yazmin Jauregui, I fell in love with the style she fights with and thought that she will one day be at the top of the division fighting for a championship. On the other side of the cage is Istela Nunes, who is a seriously accomplished striker in her own right but has taken three consecutive losses facing high level competition.
There are plenty of analysts out there saying that this line is wide. I don’t believe them. The reality is that it may not be wide enough. Removing my fandom of Yazmin from the equation, these girls are just on two very different levels. Nunes is definitely the more accomplished and technical striker – but she has virtually no power. Couple that with her poor takedown defense, and I actually think she might get finished in this contest.
Yazmin Jauregui is not afraid to be hit. In fact, if you watch tape on her, that is one of the glaring question marks that jumps out at you. She is almost willing to take punishment to keep the fight in the pocket where she can use her boxing and clinch as needed to use trips to get the fight to the mat. Istela Nunes cannot manage to keep herself upright either, which has been a big part of the problem for her in her last three contests. So while I believe that Nunes is maybe the better technical striker, I believe that Yazmin is more willing to exchange, will have the better power in those exchanges, and that she will look to get the fight to the mat where she can deliver heavy ground and pound damage and potentially get a finish.
The moneyline on Jauregui is a bit steamed, but even in the range of -300 offers the safest return in my opinion. Some of the other bets that I would look for on BetOnline assuming they will eventually post them are;
Jauregui More Takedowns
BetOnline offers takedown props now that are perfect when you have a fight with one fighter who is capable of getting the fight to the ground and another that will virtually never even attempt to do so. That's what we have here, and while the line may not be super appealing when it finally drops, there is no world where Nunes secures more takedowns in this fight.
Jauregui Minus 3.5 – Sell A Round
This bet is a bit riskier as it would require Jauregui to win all three rounds of the fight. For the analysts saying that this fight is close that could be a bit of a turnoff. I do not think this fight is close however. I think this fight is largely one way traffic and Jauregui is actually very live for a finish.
Jauregui via Submission
This would be more of a sprinkle if I was actually a sports bettor, but Istela Nunes has been finished by rear naked choke in two of her three losses so it wouldn't be unheard of for it to happen again. If my fight script plays out where Yazmin gets this to the mat, the submission is a definite possibility.
TRACY CORTEZ vs. AMANDA RIBAS
When I think of a fight that I really don’t want to see, this one comes to mind. Not because I don’t believe it will be entertaining, but more so because I enjoy watching both of these women fight and don’t really want to see either of them lose. Tracy Cortez is a dominant wrestler, and as a DFS player I have a bias towards anyone that potentially scores me over 100 fantasy points without throwing more than 30 significant strikes. Amanda Ribas is a more complete mixed martial artist and should have the advantage everywhere except wrestling.
The one big concern that I have with this fight on the Tracy Cortez side is that in order for her to win, she needs to get takedowns and be on top. Getting takedowns could potentially prove to be a chore as Amanda Ribas has top tier takedown defense. Not to mention that getting those takedowns and being on top means that she would likely be spending plenty of time in Amanda Ribas’ guard. That is not a great place to be with such an accomplished grappler.
On the other side of this fight, Amanda Ribas has numerous paths to victory and for me makes her the clear choice. She should dominate the striking, especially the defensive side of the striking battle where she is miles above Cortez. We have seen Ribas’ chin give away a few times throughout her UFC career, but it is very unlikely that Cortez has the striking or power to create that scenario. So I could easily see a three round decision in favor of Ribas, or a stoppage due to submission if the fight fights it way to the ground regardless of who is on top.
This fight is basically lined as a pick’em currently with Ribas as an ever so slight favorite at around -115. I think Ribas moneyline is pretty safe here and if I was betting on this fight would for sure be the first bet I target. While props are usually the way to roll for additional bets I don’t think I would entertain them here. There is just too much variance with how this fight could play out. The one constant for me is that every scenario favors Ribas in my opinion.
ANGELA HILL vs. EMILY DUCOTE
When I think of a fight that I really don’t want to see, this one also comes to mind. This one is because the fight just seems really boring to me though, not because I like both competitors. In fact I personally cannot stand Angela Hill. She reminds me of the guy in a pick up basketball game that isn’t really that good, but has a high motor so they just spend the entire game being overly aggressive and fouling you over and over again. That style of annoyance creates problems for people, ask Loopy Godinez about it. Ducote also does not excite me in the least. While she is a bit more deliberate in her striking and definitely more powerful, she isn’t going to set the division on fire either.
Emily Ducote is the much cleaner offensive striker in this matchup as well as the more sound defensive striker…when things are allowed to be clean. Angela Hill doesn’t do clean unfortunately. She puts on dirty, ugly, back and forth fights with a mix of grappling and striking. Hill has managed to secure a takedown in her last six fights despite not being a true wrestler, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen again here despite Ducote’s impressive takedown defense.
I had to whisper my ass off to come up with a prediction for this fight because picking against Angela Hill is always so sketchy, but ultimately I do believe that the effective striking of Ducote is too much for Angela Hill. Besides Angela already got her win for this series of five fights. Now that I am thinking about it, Angela Hill could in fact be the reason the narrative regarding women’s MMA exists in the first place. She has lost some very questionable decisions and then pulled out some really unpredictable wins as well. In this one I see three rounds of striking with a random Angela takedown at some point in the fight that will steal a round for her.
From a betting perspective, the moneyline on Emily Ducote is fairly solid at around -125 as she should be the much more talented fighter in the cage. The only things certain in life however are death, taxes, and Angela Hill being involved in split decisions. So here are a couple other bets I would entertain on BetOnline if I was betting on UFC fights;
Ducote/Hill Over 2.5
This right here is basically a lock. Angela Hill doesn’t get knocked out and Angela Hill isn’t knocking someone out. There is a slight chance for a submission should Hill be able to get this to the ground, but it's very unlikely. The problem with this is that the line is already at around -400 and that is a tough line to straight bet. I would certainly consider adding it to a parlay however.
Angela Hill + 3.5
Angela Hill may be the all time GOAT at making sure to win one round of a three round fight. With this bet, which is exclusive to BetOnline, you are being awarded three and a half points on the scorecards. This means that if Angela Hill can win just one round on her own on each of the Judges' scorecards, then you will win this bet.
ENJOY UFC ORLANDO!
Regardless of what you do while betting on UFC Orlando, make sure to enjoy the event. This sport provides so much entertainment, and these athletes are putting their physical safety on line to put on a show for us. Make sure not to bet more than you afford to lose so that when your fighter loses a highly entertaining fight you can still be somewhat ok with the result and not look like a clown in discord complaining about the fight.
If my predictions in this article come to fruition then I will be forever known as the Women’s MMA whisper, and if they don’t we will just pretend I didn’t bother writing this article in Frank’s absence and get back to the rapid fire quick picks of the Canadian guru next week.
Enjoy the event and thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings!
