Last week we ended up being pretty spot-on with this article. Two of the three fights that were written up ended up in the optimal, and the analysis of the other fight was spot on, the score just didn’t end up where it needed to be. Hopefully, there can be similar results for UFC Vegas 72 this week and we can identify three great fights to work into your lineups.
UFC Vegas 72 is headlined by the Ricky Simon vs. Yadong Song fight that was moved from last week’s slate, and then we also have numerous fights on this card that are really fun for fantasy purposes. Whether or not we can identify the correct fights to target remains to be seen, but as usual, we will start with the inside-the-distance lines and make educated decisions from there.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 72. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-400 FDNGTD)
JOSH QUINLAN ($18) vs. TREY WATERS ($11)
Josh Quinlan’s appearance on this card was saved by Trey Water’s willingness to step in on short notice. While that is great for us fans, I actually think this fight is significantly more dangerous for Quinlan than his original opponent was, Ange Loosa, who would have likely given Quinlan three rounds of opportunity to find his shot.
Josh Quinlan has been exciting since showing up in the UFC, with a knockout in his Contender Series appearance and in his official debut against Jason Witt. The Contender Series outcome was eventually overturned, however, as Josh pissed hot for performance-enhancing substances (shame on him) which resulted in his opponent keeping his undefeated status. The UFC debut knockout against Jason Witt was impressive, but I do believe it should be noted that Jason Witt is one of those fighters with a notoriously questionable chin. So have we really seen enough of Josh Quinlan to make a true assessment, I don’t believe so. We do know he has power though, which is enough to justify including him in some of your lineups when it comes to multiple-entry contests.
Trey Waters stands on the opposite side of the cage, and Trey casts a big shadow. Waters stands 6’5’’ – which is an insane height for the welterweight division. Waters has power in his hands and seems to have a somewhat dangerous submission game as well. Along with his height will be a five-inch reach advantage. Normally I don’t put too much stock into reach advantages because very few guys actually use them well, but this should help him stay away from the power of the hook Josh Quinlan likes.
For me, this is basically a coin flip, but I do enjoy the price tag of Waters more as the bottom of the slate on FanDuel is lacking in appealing options. There certainly is merit in both directions here though, so plan accordingly, especially if you play large multiple-entry tournaments where you should have plenty of both of these fighters.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-225 FDNGTD)
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA ($21) vs. WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA ($14)
This is probably the fight on the slate that I feel like I have the best read on. I could see this fight playing out in one of two ways, which I will discuss below, and fortunately only one of those scores very well. That makes the selection very easy in my opinion.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a big, scary, kickboxer who also has incredible top pressure that has led to many submissions in his favor. The unfortunate aspect of de Lima’s fight game is that he is also very easily submitted when he is on the bottom. Thankfully that is a very unlikely scenario in this fight. So in a Marcos win, he should score very highly.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who is most definitely scared of The Freckled Salamander, is a striker who likes to stand at distance and connect on the ends of heavy right hands in a one-two style. While I do not believe that he truly has the power to knock out de Lima, who has not been knocked out in the UFC, if he does manage to keep this fight off of the fence and the ground he could certainly point his way to a win.
I am firmly on the Marcos Rogerio de Lima side of this fight. I believe that standing the leg kicks are going to be problematic for Waldo and that the fight will eventually find the ground and that Waldo Cortes-Acosta will be out of his element. I also love that the upside is more intriguing for de Lima. That being said, if Waldo can find his power here, or even just dominate in the striking, you might find some leverage playing him in your contests.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-190 FDNGTD)
RODOLFO VIEIRA ($22) vs. CODY BRUNDAGE ($9)
Again, this is another fight where I am firmly on one side, but this one at least has a high ceiling in both directions. Vieira has shown us what a monster he can be for the first two rounds of a contest, and Brundage has shown us how live he can be in the first round. All things considered, this one should be a wild ride for as long as it lasts.
Ultimately I believe Vieira has way more paths to victory through his striking, which managed to keep pace with Chris Curtis his last time out, and his powerful takedowns and excellent BJJ. Brundage of course could connect with some early power, and then there is also a possibility he could still be around as Vieira starts to fade if Rodolfo doesn’t get him out of there. To be fair though, we don’t know what Brundage would look like that late after heavy grappling either, so play accordingly.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also, make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.