After an amazing UFC 284 event we now turn our sights onto UFC Vegas 69 at the Apex. Unfortunately this card took a major hit when Vera and Sandhagen were pushed back to late March. The main event then became Talia Santos and Erin Blanchfield, and eventually morphed into Jessica Andrade versus Erin Blanchfield when Santos scratched. The rest of the slate has a few hype beast fighters on it, but other than that isn’t overly impressive.
From a DFS perspective there are 11 fights, a few heavy favorites, and of course a couple live dogs as well! You will likely need to be really on point with your lineups this week due to only having 11 fights on the slate, so let's take a look at a few fights to target for UFC Vegas 69.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 69. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-650 FDNGTD)
ZAC PAUGA ($20) vs. JORDAN WRIGHT ($12)
Somehow this fight made it to be the co-main event of this event. How that happened is anyone’s guess, but it is what we are being given. For what it’s worth this fight should be pretty exciting. Jordan Wright, while not really in the business of winning often, is ALWAYS in the business of excitement. His opponent, Zac Pauga, is maybe not the most dangerous guy in the world, but Wright should push the pace enough for both of them.
Zac Pauga is coming off his knockout loss to Mohammed Usman in the TUF finale. He was winning that fight right up until the point that he wasn’t awake, but that lack of power was a problem of his competing at heavyweight in all of his fights in the TUF house. My personal expectation here is the Philipe Lins effect, he was Mr. Pillow Fist at heavyweight also and has looked significantly more impressive at Light Heavyweight. I really think that is what you will see with Pauga making the same move. His skill set is well rounded and he should be able to win this fight anywhere he wants to as long as he can avoid that early push from Jordan Wright.
Jordan Wright is a wild man who has only seen the second round twice in his UFC run, both of which he lost by knockout. Wright has only won two fights out of his seven UFC fights, also both by knockout. Recently Wright has started to use his wrestling to seek takedowns, and apparently he is actually an accomplished wrestler/grappler, but we just haven't seen much of it. While that seems to be a focus of his lately, we probably won’t see much of it here because Wright is coming up in weight and Pauga is coming down in weight to meet in the middle.
When it comes to my personal lean, this is Pauga all the way for me. The only concern I have is how his speed will translate against smaller, faster fighters. Aside from that I was very impressed by Pauga in his TUF run and hope that he can find success at 205 pounds. On the flip side Jordan Wright is only $12 and IF he wins it will be early with a massive score. So there is definitely merit in playing either side of this one.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-250 FDNGTD)
CLAYTON CARPENTER ($21) vs. JUANCAMILO RONDEROS ($10)
This fight is matching a hype beast in Clayton Carpenter against Juancamilo Ronderos who is likely in need of proving himself soon after losing in his debut to David Dvorak. The side on this fight is most likely on the hype side as the UFC rarely lets fighters that they believe they can put some marketing behind go out early in their career to lose.
Clayton Carpenter is coming off an impressive DWCS performance where he totaled three takedowns as he cruised to a clear unanimous decision. Carpenter is a pace pushing grappler that is almost always hunting for a finish and if the line is correct here, he will likely find it in this matchup.
Juancamilo Ronderos is coming off that quick loss to David Dvorak in his UFC debut and is now being thrust into another spot where he is expected to lose. Ronderos is primarily a striker, but does have a bit of wrestling in his back pocket as well should the need arise. His takedown defense is pretty solid and he does manage to be pretty active on his back as well while pushing to get back to his feet.
This is another fight where the side to be on is clear in my opinion, it is Clayton Carpenter all the way. Ronderos could make sense as a shot in the dark due to his miniscule salary, but him winning seems very far-fetched to me.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-225 FDNGTD)
JESSICA ANDRADE ($19) vs. ERIN BLANCHFIELD ($13)
IT’S TIME! Here we have the main event with an established top tier women’s MMA fighter in Jessica Andrade matching up against the next new thing in the women’s flyweight division, Erin Blanchfield. Erin is taking a massive step up in competition here, short notice or not, but it isn’t like she wasn’t doing the same when this fight was against Taila Santos.
Jessica Andrade is technically coming in on short notice, but she just fought a few weeks ago and put on a virtually perfect performance against Lauren Murphy. Andrade is a masterful striker with solid power, and can bully many girls as well against the cage or to the ground if needed. She is really just incredibly well rounded and talented enough to be in the upper section of the rankings in two different weight classes. Most people that I know immediately moved to the Andrade side once the change in opponent for Blanchfield was announced.
Not me though, Blanchfield is one of my favorite female fighters and I am in the polar opposite bias camp as Jacob who detests Blanchfield. Through my rose colored goggles Blanchfield is going to take Andrade down despite her solid takedown defense, bully her on the ground, and potentially get a stoppage either through ground & pound, or club & sub.
This fight should put up a decent score on the winning side regardless of which side that is as both girls are capable of ending fights. The more established side is definitely Andrade, but the more fun side (and cost effective side) is Blanchfield. Wishing you the best on whichever side you land.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.