I really wish I could say that I have a great feel for this upcoming UFC Vegas 68 slate, but it would be a blatant lie. This slate is filled with fighters that were very hard to find film on, film that was very difficult to focus on even when it could be found (this is a personal thing, find it difficult to focus when I don’t understand the languages being spoken), and then also has the mystery of just how good the level of competition is in the available tape. My sincere suggestion for anyone for UFC Vegas 68 is to go light, and then enjoy the next eight slates or so with plenty of name value.

Nevertheless, the show must go on and we have to find some fights to target. In this article we will go over three fights on this slate that are expected to end inside the distance at UFC Vegas 68, and what my feelings are about those matchups. If you like what I have to say maybe I can help you win a ton of money, if you don’t – just ignore me like the guy outside the gas station that talks to himself. 

Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 68. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP. 

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-750 FDGTD)

DERRICK LEWIS ($15) vs. SERGHEI SPIVAC ($21)

It is a pretty safe assumption that no one is surprised to see this fight in the top spot. This fight is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance in one of the early rounds. On one side we have the sheer knockout power, and on the other we have fierce ground and pound plus quite a bit of submission upside. Pick your side and enjoy the huge score.

Derrick Lewis is a very straight forward read. He has power, a ton of it. If he connects with that power then he can win this fight in spectacular fashion. As far as the rest of his skill set goes, it isn’t exactly impressive. He does have the ability to get up quickly if taken down, at least early, but he should be at a disadvantage here on the ground. Lewis is also not willing to lead the dance more often than not, waiting for his opponents to over extend and catch them with a counter. If Spivac isn’t willing to put himself in harm’s way that could make for a boring first couple rounds and extend the fight beyond where most expect it to end.

Serghei Spivac is definitely the more well rounded fighter in this matchup, but he isn’t really setting the world on fire with his striking – especially from range. He does seem significantly more effective in the clinch and against the cage, but to get to that point with Lewis means you are lingering in the danger zone. For Spivac to win this fight he will need to control distance and use feints to draw those aggressive counters out of Lewis while he is still in a safe position. Ultimately he should look to get the fight to the ground and use his tremendous top pressure.

To be honest, -750 is actually much less than what I expected this fight to be lined at to end inside the distance. I was expecting something well over -1000. The only way that this fight doesn’t end inside the distance is if we get the Lewis vs. Ngannou fight all over again for five rounds where both fighters refuse to engage. I don’t believe that is likely however, and you should definitely have a ton of exposure on this fight across all tournament contests. I would probably avoid it for cash completely, there are just much safer options in the $20 range instead of Spivac, and Lewis in cash is an all-time horrible idea.

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-250 FDGTD)

DOO HO CHOI ($17) vs. KYLE NELSON ($14)

There are other fights more favored to end inside the distance than this one, but I just don’t believe that I have as solid a read on those fights. To make things more complicated, one of them (Nakamura vs. Kazama) could potentially be very wrestling and grapple heavy and I generally try to avoid those types of fights on the FanDuel platform.

Doo Ho Choi is coming back to fighting after a long layoff that was due to mandatory military service in South Korea. Choi is an exciting fighter that has losses on his record that really aren’t that bad – unfortunately his wins aren’t all that great either. Choi looks for violence and that is a huge benefit when it comes to daily fantasy. In fact, five of his six UFC fights have been awarded fight of the night honors. If Choi can find Nelson’s chin, he could put up a monster score early, but he would also have the edge if the fight gets extended in my opinion as well.

Kyle Nelson is a Canadian fighter who has been quite underwhelming in the UFC, gaining only one win out of his six UFC fights. That win was against Marco Polo Reyes – don’t worry I will give you a minute to Google…Nelson is exactly the kind of fighter that will make for a great show with Doo Ho Choi though, and of course does have a puncher's chance to steal victory. Ultimately though, this fight feels like it was made to welcome Choi back to action.

Doo Ho Choi would likely be the direction to go in single entry contests, nice salary, and potentially a huge score. There is definitely an argument for Nelson, but for a single entry at that price point I would rather roll the dice on Derrick Lewis I think. Not having some Nelson in your multiple entry contests doesn’t seem like a great idea to me however. That is more Shockz’ wheel house however so I would recommend you defer to the FanDuel plays posted in the premium section for a better opinion.

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-200 FDGTD)

DA UN JUNG ($19) vs. DEVIN CLARK ($12)

Last up for UFC Vegas 68 fights to target is a fight that is solid on both sides in my opinion. The Da Un Jung side is solid because he is clearly the much better overall fighter in this matchup and is priced fairly at $19. The Devin Clark side is solid because IF (big if in my opinion) he manages to win it, it will almost surely be inside the distance and at only $12 that would pay off very nicely.

Da Un Jung is incredibly well rounded, and truthfully should be the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. That includes wrestling, which is Devin Clarks strength, because while Clark is offensively a very solid wrestler – his defensive wrestling is terrible. Jung has a huge advantage on the feet from a technical perspective, but power is probably about even. Both of these guys have the ability to connect with a monster shot.

Again, for me Da Un Jung would be the play for a single entry – potentially even as a captain – but this fight should score well regardless of which direction it goes. Devin Clark could be a great salary saver option here on a slate with minimal upside in the lower salary ranges as well should he be able to find a finish via knockout or ground and pound.

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.